分析师的估值模型会影响评级的信息含量吗?

本文基于2014—2018年发布的沪深两市A股上市公司深度研究报告,考察了分析师报告中关于估值方法的描述,探究分析师估值模型的选择是否会对其投资意见的信息含量产生影响。研究发现,分析师采用绝对估值模型能够提高评级调整的市场反应,具有一定的增量价值。进一步分组检验发现,在公司成长性较高、不确定性较大、券商实力较弱、分析师之间的竞争程度较高的情况下,使用绝对估值模型对于提高分析师评级调整的信息含量作用更大。本文的研究结论对于理解分析师估值过程的价值和有效性以及分析师研究报告信息含量的影响因素具有重要意义,并为投资者如何使用和评价分析师研究报告提供了一定的参考。     

An exploration of the environmental and rider characteristics associated with disability paratransit trip delay

Over the past two decades, a number of studies have been published on the efficiency of paratransit service for persons with disabilities. Although speed, delay, and pick-up duration can significantly affect overall efficiency of paratransit service, studies that have focused on these performance measures have been rare. This study examines how these performance measures are associated with local environmental characteristics such as density and the characteristics of the trip makers. It uses a dataset containing detailed information on a large volume of trips made by the registered clients of Access Link, a paratransit service operated by NJ TRANSIT for persons with disabilities. To measure speed and delay, network distances for 1.91 million trips were estimated by the ArcGIS Network Analyst extension. Analysis of variance and regression models were used to examine the associations between the performance measures and a set of variables pertaining to trips, passengers, and characteristics of pick-up and drop-off locations. Models for the entire study area as well as specific Access Link regions show that there is a significant association between local environmental and personal characteristics of passengers and the performance measures. Evidence was found that higher density of population, employment, and intersections at the local level may have a significant adverse effect on service efficiency because of lower speed and higher delay. Planning implications of the findings are discussed.     

Consistent Analyst Expectation Error and Earnings Management: Evidence from China

Using data from the Chinese A-share market in 2004–12, we show how cognitive bias of individual analysts led to counterproductive effect in less-developed financial markets. We form an ex ante measure of analysts’ expectation error, a measure suitable for markets with a short history. We find that star analysts tend to be more optimistic than ordinary analysts, and their biased opinions influence other analysts because of analyst herding behavior. Two-stage least square regression results suggest that consistent expectation errors among analysts can lead to earnings management. These insights are valuable to investors and regulators.     

浅析计算机软件项目管理中的需求分析

计算机软件项目管理中的需求分析是提高软件质量的基础也是决定一个软件项目成败的关键。本文介绍了在需求分析研究中探索出的一些有效措施。     

Economic value of analyst recommendations in Australia: an application of the Black–Litterman asset allocation model

This study empirically examines the investment value of security analyst recommendations on constituent stocks of the S&P/ASX 50 index. We find that stocks with favourable (unfavourable) recommendations on average outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark index. An investment strategy using the Black–Litterman asset allocation model that incorporates consensus analyst recommendations, in conjunction with daily rebalancing, outperforms the market in terms of return and risk‐adjusted performance measures. The investment strategy involves high levels of trading, and no significant abnormal returns are achieved after transaction costs. Less frequent rebalancing, under most situations, causes a decrease in both performance and turnover. Filtering of dated recommendations causes an increase in turnover, while having mixed effects on investment returns.     

Analysts’ Momentum Recommendations

We document that the likelihood of analyst recommendations following past stock returns decreased abruptly in 2003, coinciding with the Global Settlement and other regulatory changes designed to restrain analysts’ conflicts of interest. We also document that the likelihood of recommendations following past stock returns is abnormally high for recommendations issued after negative stock returns (but not for those issued after positive stock returns), among inexperienced and inaccurate analysts, among large brokerage houses, and for companies with high share turnover. Moreover, the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns are accompanied by earnings forecast revisions that are larger in magnitude and less accurate ex post. Overall, our findings suggest that analysts with conflicts of interest and limited ability are more likely to base their recommendations on past stock returns. Finally, we document that the recommendations that are more likely to follow past stock returns (especially those that were issued before 2003 and those that are issued after negative stock returns) contribute to existing price momentum by generating incrementally stronger short‐term and long‐term stock returns.     

关于当前流通业发展若干问题的思考

流通业是国民经济的重要产业。当前流通业在快速发展过程中，也面临一些问题，还需调整改进。本文针对当前流通业发展中面临的几个重要问题：如何减轻流通业不合理的收费负担，如何加强重要商品储备等调整市场的手段，如何加强公益性商品流通基础设施的政府投入，进行了深入思考，并提出政策建议。     

当前我国房地产市场泡沫的成因、对策

历史经验告诉我们,房地产泡沫的产生、破灭对实体经济会产生巨大的损害。近年来,房地产市场在中国经济中的支柱地位得到进一步强化,且从已有的各项指标、数据来看,当前中国房地产市场泡沫现象已非常严重,房地产价格的非理性上涨必将成为实体经济的潜在风险,文章通过对我国房地产市场的泡沫现状与原因分析,提出了解决我国房地产泡沫的政策建议。     

Stock price informativeness and analyst coverage

We examine whether more analyst coverage translates into more informative stock prices and apply this to both developed and emerging markets. We measure price informativeness using the association between current stock returns and future earnings. We argue that more informative stock prices contain more information about future earnings. Results indicate that analysts' activities do not contribute to the impounding of future earnings information into current stock prices, in accordance with the view that analysts are outsiders who do not have full access to firm‐level information. We also find that analysts specialize according to industry and that “industry expertise” is limited to developed countries. Overall, our evidence is consistent with the explanation that analysts focus on gathering and mapping industry‐ and market‐level information (macroeconomic information) into stock prices. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对利用衡器作弊的一点认识

对于衡器作弊,相关部门需要加大打击力度,进一步维护消费者的合法权益。本文通过阐述衡器的基本知识,分析衡器作弊现象,同时提出相应的政策建议,对于治理衡器作弊问题,为相关部门提供参考依据。