区域环境承载力的定量化探讨--以大连市为例

With the analysis of the connotation and charter of the regional environment's carrying capacity, this paper,firstly, establishes the index system on the base of the affecting factors. Secondly, this paper discusses the methods of the quantization of the environment's carrying capacity of Dalian. Finally, this paper predicts the changing tendency of the environment's carrying capacity.     

我国生态工业园区的建设、发展与完善——基于烟台开发区生态工业园区发展状况的调查分析

本文通过对烟台开发区生态工业园区发展现状与建设经验的调查分析,指出树立科学发展观,发展循环经济,建立促进循环经济发展的法律法规体系和科学的评价指标体系,有利于推动我国生态工业园区的发展与完善,对指导和发展我国生态工业园区有特别重要的意义。     

我国收入贸易条件变动分析:1995～2004

收入贸易条件衡量的是一国在国际分工中获得的总体贸易利益的多少,在对我国贸易条件的变化进行分析时应当合理考虑收入贸易条件指数的变动。近年来我国的收入贸易条件指数呈现出持续改善的趋势,这表明外贸规模的扩大对国民经济发展做出了积极的贡献,仅仅根据商品贸易条件指数下降而得出我国贸易条件出现严重恶化的结论缺乏充分的根据。从国际经济竞争的现实背景来考虑,我国应当在保持收入贸易条件指数不恶化的情况下,继续大力推动出口贸易量较快地增长。     

国有企业负责人素质能力评价与分析

基于国有企业负责人素质能力的影响因素，根据评价指标体系设计的原则，以国有企业负责人为研究对象，确定了由两个模块、六个要素、十八个指标构成的评价指标体系；采用模糊综合评价方法对河北省国有企业负责人的素质能力进行实证评价分析。结果表明，该评价方法可运用于其他国有企业负责人素质能力的评价研究。     

The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

地区专业化、产业集中与经济集聚——对我国制造业的实证分析

以新经济地理学模型为基本理论框架,对我国各省区专业化水平、制造业各行业的集中程度和整个制造业的集聚程度进行了实证分析,结果显示1993—2003年间我国各省份的专业化水平呈显著上升趋势,制造业大部分行业集中程度提高,整个制造业集聚程度上升。在制造业各行业集中程度和整个制造业集聚程度的测算中,引入SP指数,结果显示这一指标的引进是非常必要的。     

Natural resources, capital accumulation and the resource curse

Early concern by economists for the effect of natural capital on economic growth gave way to complacency and neglect during the nineteenth century. Evidence has emerged, however, that since the 1960s the economic performance of low-income countries has been inversely related to their natural resource wealth. This relationship is not a deterministic one so policy counts. SEEA can help improve the policy and performance of resource-abundant low-income countries by reinforcing the rationale for the sound management of natural resources and also by providing an index of policy sustainability in the form of the net saving rate. This policy index, along with other measures such as a capital fund for sterilizing the rent, initiatives to increase the transparency of rent flows and the rigorous evaluation of alternative uses of additional public sector revenue can improve the efficiency by which natural resource rent is transformed into alternative forms of capital to sustain rising social welfare. Chad and Mauritania provide case studies to illustrate how SEEA and net saving can be used to diagnose policy failure and improve economic performance.     

兰州城市人居环境可持续发展综合评价

在提出兰州市城市人居环境可持续发展评价指标体系和评估方法的基础上,综合分析、评价了兰州城市人居环境可持续发展的整体水平、发展的持续性及其系统的协调状况,并据此对兰州城市人居环境向良性方向发展提出相应的对策建议.     

论平衡记分卡的"不平衡"

国内对平衡记分卡的认识,与发达国家相比还存在很大差距。许多人还没有真正认识到平衡记分卡的含义和用法,仅仅追求形式,使平衡记分卡成为组织"看起来好看,用起来无用的装饰品"。本文提出根据企业实际情况建立精简的"不平衡"记分卡的观点,借以与大家进行深入讨论。     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.