Endogenous Growth,Skill Obsolescence,and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

We embed skill obsolescence and endogenous growth into a New Keynesian model with search-and-matching frictions. The model accounts for key features of the Great Recession: the “productivity puzzle” and the “missing disinflation puzzle.” Lower aggregate demand raises long-term unemployment and the training costs associated with skill obsolescence. Lower aggregate employment hinders learning-by-doing, which slows down human capital accumulation, feeding back into even fewer vacancies than justified by the demand shock alone. These feedback channels mitigate the disinflationary effect of the demand shock while amplifying its contractionary effect on output. The temporary growth slowdown translates into output hysteresis.     

中国企业对外直接投资与企业生产能力

随着中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)规模的日益扩大,企业OFDI对企业生产能力的影响问题成为学者们研究的重点议题.本文基于2013—2018年的企业OFDI数据,使用倾向得分匹配法系统研究对OFDI活动对中国企业生产能力的作用结果.研究发现:OFDI活动与企业生产能力之间存在着显著的因果关系.不论是从短期还是长期来看,OFDI活动都会对企业的生产能力产生正向推动作用,同时这种推动作用还会随着时间的推移而不断提高.另外,本文还将OFDI活动划分为三大类,不同类型的OFDI活动对企业生产能力的影响中存在着较为显著的差异性.本文的研究结论为推动中国企业开展OFDI活动及相关政府管理部门制定管理政策,提供了重要的参考和借鉴.