Setting an exam as an information design problem

We take a teacher's exam-setting task as an information design problem. Specifically, the teacher chooses a conditional distribution of grades given students' types. After observing their exam results, each student updates her belief regarding her type via Bayes' rule and chooses an action. Students' reactions to the same exam result could be different, depending on their heterogeneous prior beliefs. The teacher's objective is to persuade students to take a certain action (e.g., applying to universities), which some may not choose without an exam. The teacher adopts different grade distributions, depending on the teacher's and the students' heterogeneous prior beliefs.     

产品市场势力能降低股票市场的异质信念吗——基于A股市场的实证研究

基于2001年至2009年A股市场的数据,本文检验了Peress(2010)提出的产品市场势力降低股票市场异质信念水平的推断,并分析了Miller(1977)提出的影响股票市场异质信念的因素。我们发现产品市场势力不仅不能降低反而可能会提高股票市场异质信念的水平。在将异质信念分解为异质先验导致的异质信念,渐进信息流动、有限注意导致的异质信念后,这种提高主要表现在对后者的提高上。该结果意味着产品市场势力可能因为提高了异质信念水平而促进了股票市场的交易,从而为交易异象的解释提供了新的思路。此外,实证结果显示上市公司的业务集中度、机构持股可以降低异质信念水平,而上市公司的已上市时间、市场中股票数量对于异质信念的影响与已有的理论分析并不完全一致。     

Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

Interactive effects of consumers’ ethical beliefs and authenticity on ethical consumption and pro-environmental behaviors

The current study examined the relationships of ethical beliefs (i.e., idealism and relativism) with pro-environmental behaviors (direct and indirect) and ethical consumption behavior. The study further examined the moderating role of consumer authenticity in these relationships. Data were collected from individuals (N = 302) using field surveys within three major metropolitan cities of Pakistan. The findings revealed that idealism had a positive relationship with ethical consumption behavior and pro-environmental direct behavior. However, it was not related to pro-environmental indirect behavior. Relativism was positively related to ethical consumption behavior but it was not related to both types of pro-environmental behaviors. Furthermore, consumer authenticity significantly moderated the relationships of idealism with all ethical outcomes. Finally, implications for organizations, marketers and policy makers are discussed.     

股份回购与资本市场定价偏误——基于上市公司的经验证据

通过选取2014-2021年上市公司实际进行股份回购的样本数据,实证检验了股份回购对于资本市场定价偏误的影响机制。研究发现,上市公司实施股份回购能够有效缓解资本市场定价偏误现象,其影响机制在内外部治理水平较高的企业中更显著,并且通过提高信息透明度和降低投资者异质信念水平两个渠道发挥作用。积极进行股份回购的企业在不同回购特征下均能有效缓解定价偏误,当回购股份被用于市值管理计划和股权激励计划时有效降低误定价水平。     

论多元文化背景下大学生理想信念的建构

当前,在各种思想文化相互冲击、不同意识形态之间的斗争日益复杂的情况下,如何在大学生中开展富有成效的理想信念教育工作,让学生提升文化自觉,树立远大理想,化解大学生文化困惑和了解民族文化认同危机。是高校思想政治工作的重要课题,也是人文文化道路上的延续和探求。     

民间信仰与青年农民创业——基于闽北乡镇的社会资本研究

民间信仰是最具有中国乡土特色的信仰,福建省的民间信仰又是中国民间信仰最活跃、最典型的地区,其植根于乡土社会中,深深地影响着乡土民众的生产和生活方式。基于闽北乡镇青年农民创业的实例,探讨当地民间信仰作为青年农民创业重要社会资本的状况,以及在青年农民创业中所发挥的重要作用。     

日语写作中学习者信念的差异与构成因素研究

通过从学习者的日语写作学习信念是否因日语水平而有差异、其构成因素两个角度分析了学习者的日语写作学习信念。结果表明：有些信念在不同水平学习者间存在差异,但整体差异并不明显;写作学习信念由元认知的重要性、借助外界资源、形式和内容并重、自我肯定4个因素构成。由此指出,日语写作课不能忽略元认知策略的指导,需导入自我修改活动,适当引入同学互评活动。     

Viewing Tax Policy Through Party‐Colored Glasses: What German Politicians Believe

Abstract. The process of globalization has an important impact on national tax policies. Most of the literature does not focus directly on the political decision‐making process and assumes that the desired tax policy is responding to objective underlying tradeoffs. Based on an original survey of members of the German national parliament (Bundestag) in 2006/07, we document a strong ideological bias among policy‐makers with respect to the perceived mobility of international tax bases (real capital and paper profits). Ideology also influences, directly and indirectly, the perceived national autonomy in tax setting and preferences for a European Union minimum tax for companies. There seems little consensus as to what the efficiency costs of capital taxation in open economies are, even though our survey falls in a period of extensive debate about, and actual adoption of, a company tax reform bill in Germany.     

Antecedent factors of the need for information regarding petrochemical complex hazards

Information transparency is a relevant factor nowadays. The current legislation has forced hazardous companies to improve their communication policy with the local community, but this entails the difficulty that each individual has a different need for information. This study considers the main antecedents of need for information to explain these differences. The paper analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the direct influence of personal beliefs about environmental issues on the individual’s need for information. The research focused on the residents (992) of an area near to a petrochemical complex. The results, derived from the structural equation modelling analysis, confirmed the influence of environmental beliefs, trust in companies and negative affective response on the need for information. In the light of these results, we recommend that the companies of the complex develop a risk communication policy based on personal environmental beliefs, in order to understand the public’s concerns and their needs for risk information. Finally, the analysed companies need to see risk communication as a long-term and ongoing process that involves active dialogue and enables stakeholders’ participation, with the aim of establishing a communication network.