预算约束与金融制度选择的新理论:文献述评

本文的考察发现,在预算约束与金融制度结构之间存在着十分紧密的逻辑联系,而且国内外不少文献已经围绕于此展开了广泛而深入的讨论。针对预算约束与金融制度选择的关系,现有文献的理论发现大致包括三个层面:第一,虽然缓解乃至消除软预算约束是任何一种金融体系共同面临的挑战,但软预算约束的消除并非一定有利于长期经济增长;第二,分权的或者集权的金融体制都具有"内生性",因此,至少在理论上无法对其进行孰优孰劣的直观评判,同时也无法在它们之间进行简单的复制和移植;第三,金融体系应对预算约束问题的能力要远弱于企业制度,因此,当一个国家面对预算约束问题时,应当首先着手改善微观经济基础的金融需求结构,而不是调整金融供给结构。     

Are Asian Sovereign Wealth Funds Different?

Sovereign wealth funds have become a prominent feature of the international financial landscape. However, legitimate concerns have been raised about these funds. Many of those concerns can be addressed via increased accountability and transparency by the funds. The Santiago Principles are a good start in doing so. My sovereign wealth funds scoreboard points to areas where these Principles can be improved. At the same time, the OECD effort to address concerns from the host‐country side has not resulted in the erection of new barriers to that form of cross‐border investment, but the OECD failed to reverse the creeping financial protectionism of the past decade. Because of their size and the source of their funding, some Asian funds stand out. As a result, those funds will be held to a higher standard of accountability and transparency.     

我国软预算约束的治理:理论与政策

软预算约束对我国经济的危害甚大,探讨我国预算软约束的治理意义重大.本文认为,应当从下述四个方面来治理我国经济中普遍存在的软预算约束问题:(1)推进国有银企的市场化改革,消除政府干预;(2)建立分散化的银行体系,加强对银行体系的有效监控;(3)实行财政分权,加强地区经济之间的竞争;(4)规范政府经济行为,严格财政金融纪律.     

Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas

We examine whether informed trading around earnings announcements drives mutual fund performance. The measure is motivated by prior studies arguing that a mutual fund is skilled if it buys stocks with subsequent high earnings announcement returns. We find that this measure predicts future mutual fund returns. On average, after adjusting for Carhart’s four risk factors, the top decile of mutual funds outperforms the bottom decile by 44 basis points per quarter. By decomposing fund alphas into two components in their relations to earnings, we find that this measure is only associated with earnings-related fund alphas. This measure can also be used to predict stock returns at future earnings announcements.     

基于业财融合的铁路运输企业全面预算管理体系研究

随着铁路运输企业不断深化改革和转型升级,作为企业财务管理有效工具之一的全面预算管理也应适应经济发展而不断优化。以业财融合为出发点,结合我国铁路运输企业的经营业务和预算管理的研究现状,对预算管理指标体系进行了总体分析及结构设计,构建了“国铁集团—路局—基层站段”三级次的预算指标模型,并设计了国铁集团到路局层面以及路局到站段层面的闭环式预算编制流程,健全和完善了相应的预算管理流程和责任分工。     

基金经理过度自信条件下决策与风险规避

建立过度自信条件下的委托代理理论和模型,研究过度自信对基金经理决策过程和决策结果的作用机理,为人们在风险投资过程中做出尽可能正确的决策,降低基金经理道德风险、改善基金机构与经基金经理之间的委托-代理关系,提供理论指导和借鉴思路。     

机关运行经费基金化管理的战略构想

政府机关事务的高绩效管理是维护政府高效有序运行的关键,更是实现政府职能、促进社会经济发展、维护社会稳定和提升政府公信力的重要保障。许多先发国家如美国、英国等对机关运行实行了价值化管理改革,以基金作为撬动政府机关运行资金的杠杆,达到了机关服务高效优质、规范有序、监督有效和战略明确的目标。中国机关事务运行正处于由传统的事务性实物管理向现代化的价值治理转变的关键期,借鉴英美等国的基金管理和运行经验对于中国建立机关运行普遍服务基金制度,提高政府效能,实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。     

Stability or restructuring? Macroeconomic dynamics under soft budget constraint problems

In this paper, we examine how a decrease in firms’ productivity or the degree of financial market imperfection affects macroeconomic dynamics when the bank has an incentive to misallocate its credit. We develop a model that incorporates a soft budget constraint into a simplified version of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) environment and show that soft budget constraint problems may arise if the economy becomes less productive or the financial market is less developed. Because of this shift in firms’ productivity, not only do more bad projects survive, but profitable new entrants are crowded out, so that, as in transition economies and Japan in the 1990s, the recession is not only prolonged, but also becomes more severe in the long term.     

美国预算过程及其对我国预算制度改革的启示

目前国内学者对预算过程的研究还没有足够的重视。中美两国的预算过程有着很大的差异,立法部门预算过程的差异尤为明显。通过对美国预算过程的分析,可以发现立法部门在美国预算过程中处于主导地位,预算过程的运行受到大量制度安排的控制。结合国情,我国应该通过制度建设与机构改革逐步完善立法部门的预算监控职能,并通过程序控制与法律手段保证立法部门的预算意志得以执行。     

浅论我国国有资本预算管理体制的构建——基于发达国家的经验

2003年国有资产监督管理委员会的成立,标志着我国新型国有资产管理体制的建立。在新型管理体制下,如何完善对国有资本的预算管理就成为一个重要的课题。针对我国国有资本预算管理面临的问题,借鉴发达国家的经验,提出了我国构建国有资本预算管理体制的思路。