混合型基金绩效评估及驱动因素分析——基于DEA-Tobit模型

将随机选出的混合型基金作为研究样本,采用DEA-Tobit二阶段模型进行研究.首先利用数据包络模型对样本进行绩效评估,在此基础上,利用Tobit模型研究相关指标对于基金绩效的影响机制.结果表明,基金本身所面临的风险收益因素以及基金经理团队稳定性对于基金绩效均具显著影响.最后结合实证结果就提升中国基金绩效提出相关的建议.     

Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience*

This paper examines contrasting experiences of the United Kingdom in addressing high public debt to GDP ratios following major wars. A clear message is that interest rate / growth rate differentials were more important than primary budget surpluses for the different outcomes. The debt to GDP ratio fell very rapidly under financial repression following the Second World War but remained stubbornly high despite large budget surpluses with price deflation after the First World War. Implications for policymakers today are that averting price deflation is a high priority and that supply‐side policies that raise growth could play an important part in debt reduction.     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

浅谈建筑安装工程预算的学习

建筑安装工程预算是一门综合性较强的学科,由建筑给排水、采暖、通风空调、电器等多个专业,多个学科组成,是一门独立的,实践性很强的课程。本课程没有过多的理论和公式的推导,重点在于知识的掌握和应用,因此在学习的过程中有很多需要注意的地方。     

美国预算过程及其对我国预算制度改革的启示

目前国内学者对预算过程的研究还没有足够的重视。中美两国的预算过程有着很大的差异,立法部门预算过程的差异尤为明显。通过对美国预算过程的分析,可以发现立法部门在美国预算过程中处于主导地位,预算过程的运行受到大量制度安排的控制。结合国情,我国应该通过制度建设与机构改革逐步完善立法部门的预算监控职能,并通过程序控制与法律手段保证立法部门的预算意志得以执行。     

“侧袋存放”机制在基金估值中的应用研究

对因突发事件临时停牌的股票和长期停牌的股票进行估值，可以借鉴国外对冲基金经常采用的“侧袋存放”机制。在公募基金行业中采取按允许赎回不允许申购、同时允许申购和赎回两种模式，具体实施机制各不相同。实施“侧袋存放”机制在基金持有人利益、IT系统支持、信息披露、费用计提等方面存在的一些难点。     

基于公共预算视角的三公经费管理问题及优化治理

三公经费管理作为反映财政预算单位拨款支出的活动,在财政预算管理体系中占有重要地位。通过研究三公经费管理中存在的弊端,解读公共预算在三公经费管理活动中所起的实质作用,进而提出规范优化治理的对策。从公共预算管理的角度阐述三公经费,寻求实现三公经费公开的解决对策。     

Cyclically‐Neutral Generational Accounting

This paper introduces a key methodological innovation into generational accounting. By incorporating cyclically‐adjusted balances into the forward‐looking budget projections underlying the concept, we isolate pure policy effects, which render comparisons of the fiscal sustainability indicators obtained across time and countries truly meaningful. We also show that a demographic effect and a debt effect may drive fiscal sustainability measures over time, and establish a routine to control for these effects in the generational accounting framework. An empirical application for Spain illustrates that our proposed decomposition of indicators is empirically relevant. Standard generational accounting suggests that fiscal sustainability in Spain improved substantially in preparing for EMU. However, calculation of the pure policy effects reveals that this has not been the case.     

救助投机、挤入效应与国有企业预算约束硬化

国有银行的＂救助投机＂行为促进了国有企业的＂预算软约束＂和不良贷款的积累。在政府、银行与国有企业之间的长期动态博弈中,由于预算硬约束企业的出现给国有银行提供了改善贷款资产组合的机会,提高了银行在与政府的救助投机博弈中的议价能力,要求政府给予更多的流动性注入,这会产生银行贷款资产中预算硬约束企业贷款占比不断增加的挤入效应。这种挤入效应累积到一定程度,政府的救助将变得非社会最优的,进而政府将停止救助,国有企业的预算约束也随之硬化。