Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS非寿险保险风险最低资本要求比较研究——基于中国60家财产保险公司的经验证据

本文以非寿险业务保险风险最低资本要求为考察对象,研究了欧盟Solvency Ⅱ与中国C-ROSS的差异,并利用中国保险市场60家财险公司的经验数据,对两者之间的差异进行了实证和模拟分析。研究结果表明,Solvency Ⅱ和C-ROSS对中国财险公司保险风险最低资本要求存在差异。对于拥有传统业务结构的财险公司,Solvency Ⅱ对保险风险最低资本要求更高,但是这种差距随着公司业务规模的缩小而减弱;对于以经营某些专业险种为主的财险公司,主营业务险种对两者差异具有决定性影响。本文的研究结论详细解释了Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS在非寿险保险风险最低资本计算上的异同,对C-ROSS下一步的修订工作提供了一定的支持与参考。     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

KIBS企业—顾客交互创新中知识整合的权变机制

引入过程互依性和项目不确定性,探讨了KIBS企业-顾客交互创新中知识整合的权变机制。基于338份服务创新项目问卷数据进行实证研究,结果显示:在KIBS企业-顾客交互四要素中,除规则正式化负向影响外部知识整合以外,决策集体化、资源共享和任务协作均正向影响内、外部知识整合;过程互依性增强了规则正式化、决策集体化和任务协作对内部知识整合的影响,但对资源共享与内部知识整合间关系的调节作用不显著;项目不确定性增强了规则正式化、资源共享和任务协作对外部知识整合的影响,但对决策集体化与外部知识整合间关系的调节作用不显著。     

Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? Evidence from Panel Data on South Africa during the 2008‐2009 Crisis

The financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 took a heavy toll on the South African economy. The economy contracted for the first time since 1998 and entered recession during the fourth quarter of 2008. The gross domestic product contraction was soon transmitted to the labour market. Between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, employment fell by 3.8%. However, not all individuals were hit with the same intensity. Using panel data from a quarterly labour force survey unique in the African context, we find that human capital (i.e. education as years of schooling and workforce experience) provided a buffer against the shock. After controlling for observable characteristics, education and experience showed the potential to entirely offset the effect of the recession on the likelihood of employment. This has important policy implications, as it strengthens the case for strategic investments in human capital and helps identify the unskilled as having the greatest need for social safety net interventions during a recession.     

Preference shocks,international frictions,and international business cycles

Replicating the degree of cross-country comovements of macroeconomic aggregates, dynamics of prices and quantities of international trade, and the behavior of consumption and labor remains an important challenge in international business cycle literature. This paper incorporates preference shocks into a standard two-country model in which there exist international frictions, such as costs of transportation and restrictions to international asset trade. Country-specific preference shocks that generate fluctuations in each country's consumption and labor solve the puzzles, except for the discrepancy between theory and data regarding international trade variables. The presence or absence of international frictions plays a limited role in solving the puzzles.     

物联网商业模式的问题及对策研究

现今物联网应用领域十分广泛,对于推动经济发展、加快中国经济发展体制的转型、提高中国自主创新能力发挥着重大作用,它已成为当前最具发展潜力的产业之一。但是产业发展中仍然存在障碍。中国的物联网产业仍然处于初级阶段,成熟、稳定、有利可图的商业模式还没有形成。物联网作为一个全新的研究领域和研究对象,它的商业模式的创新才是决定物联网产业大范围、长期应用的关键所在。介绍从现存的物联网模式展开分析,并提出改进物联网商业模式发展的建议。     

Family firm succession and performance

We analyse more than half a million businesses from the Census Bureau’s 2007 Survey of Business Owners with less survivorship and size biases. After controlling for firm- and owner-specific characteristics, we find family businesses generate fewer receipts and less employment and payroll. Family businesses involving a second-generation owner-manager show better performance. On the other hand, those managed by founder-owners show worse performance. These results of all firms, mostly small businesses, are contrary to the previous studies of large public firms. However, for a subsample of 2064 businesses large enough to be listed on a US stock exchange, the results become consistent with the previous large-firm studies.     

宏观审慎政策、经济周期与银行风险承担*

本文基于中国227家商业银行2005－2016年非平衡面板数据，实证检验中国宏观审慎政策实施对于银行风险承担的影响。结果表明：宏观审慎政策增强会在一定程度上抑制银行风险承担，而且这种显著的负向关系并不随着银行风险代理变量、经营辐射范围以及是否有外资入股等条件的改变而发生变化。经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生非对称性影响，即相比在经济上行时期，在经济下行时期的宏观审慎政策对银行风险承担的抑制作用更强且更为显著。就可能的影响机制而言，本文发现宏观审慎政策通过提高银行盈利能力，从而降低银行风险承担。