Pairs trading strategies in a cointegration framework: back-tested on CFD and optimized by profit factor

Statistical arbitrage is based on pairs trading of mean-reverting returns. We used cointegration approach and ECM-DCC-GARCH to construct 98 pairs of 152 stocks of 3 currencies. Stocks trading is done by Contract for Difference (CFD), a financial derivative product which facilitates short selling and provides a leverage up to 25 times. To measure the performance of a leveraged strategy, we introduced the profit factor which is the annualized return rate per unit risk. And the historical risk is measured by maximum drawdown. We compared three main strategies: percentage, standard deviation of cointegration long-term residuals and Bollinger Bands (dynamic standard deviation), with and without double confirmation of short-term standard deviation modelled by ECM-DCC-GARCH. Each of the three main strategies is optimized by two optimizers: absolute profit and profit factor. The optimization period goes from 2012–01-01 to 2014–12-31, and validation period is from 2015–01-01 to 2016–06-01. Our results showed that the USD Bollinger Bands strategy without double confirmation and optimized by profit factor, outperformed other strategies and provided the highest annualized return rate per unit risk; 32% of our sample pairs ended up in loss, and 94% of which are explained by a cointegration break during the testing period.     

钢贸企业经营模式创新和流动资金管理问题探讨

实施经营模式创新,已成为当前钢贸企业走出困境的必由之路。应收款、预付款和库存三个方面是当前钢贸企业日常经营风险的重点之所在。本文对创新钢贸企业经营模式和改进流动资金(应收款、预付款和库存)管理进行探讨。     

Regional disparity of embedded carbon footprint and its sources in China: a consumption perspective

Carbon emission reduction could be achieved through extensive cooperation between relevant groups such as businesses, governments and consumers. Generally, carbon emissions stem from consumer behaviour. To tackle the increasingly serious energy crisis and climate change in China, it is thus vital to control carbon emissions generated by the country's urban consumers. From a consumption perspective, we utilize a self-organizing feature map model to analyse the spatial differentiation of per capita embedded carbon footprint (ECF) in urban China. We found that the spatial differentiation is significant with the per capita ECF of the east coastal area at a high level and that per capita disposable income is the key factor affecting ECF. Based on these findings, potential business opportunities to develop low-carbon products are discussed.     

Socio-technical transition governance and public opinion: The case of passenger transport in Finland

As a governance perspective, transition management views the engagement of a wide variety of stakeholders in policy development as a necessary element in furthering sustainability through enhanced social learning. Yet as a literature it has paid relatively little attention to public consultation on socio-technical change. Here we set transition management in the context of longstanding debates in science and technology studies, technology assessment and deliberative democracy. Empirically, we use national survey data on Finnish public opinion of state support for future transport options. Showing how transport practices and attitudes to transport innovation policy vary with both demography and geography, we argue that these differences have implications for policy legitimacy. We suggest that, both given and despite the practical difficulties of deliberative democracy, use of participative opinion surveying to better understand social groups with needs and interests that differ from national averages, may help to enhance policy legitimacy and hence the success of transition management.     

Corporate commitment to climate change action,carbon risk exposure,and a firm's debt financing policy

Motivated by the rising consensus that corporate engagement in climate change actions holds the key for society's transition into environmentally resilient economy, the study examines whether a firm's commitment to climate change action and its carbon risk exposure shape the firm's debt financing policy. Based on insights drawn from signaling, corporate reputation, and agency theories, we develop models that link corporate commitment to climate change actions and a firm's carbon risk exposure with its debt financing decisions. Using data drawn from S&P 500 companies, for years 2015 to 2019, we find a robust evidence that firms that engage in higher levels of commitment to climate change actions issue a higher proportion of debt with longer terms to maturity, even after controlling for their carbon risk exposure. However, we do not find a robust evidence corroborating an association between firms' carbon risk exposure and their debt financing policy. These findings are consistent with arguments that high-commitment firms enjoy positive reputation, better credit rating, and reduced agency and information asymmetry costs, allowing them to gain easier access to long-term debt markets.     

When do retail investors pay attention to their trading platforms?

Buying and selling securities through online trading platforms has become increasingly popular among U.S. households in recent years. This study tracks U.S. households' attention to their online trading platforms using daily data for 2004 to August 2017. The analysis covers the 10 most popular online trading platforms among U.S. investors. The findings indicate that market shocks, captured by several proxies, as well as macroeconomic announcements attract investors' attention to trading platforms. We also document that the ostrich effect weakens when considering greater changes in the VIX. Our findings do not support the avoidance of information theory, but do support the theoretical argument that risk-averse agents engage in more information gathering when uncertainty prevails in hopes of reducing their risks.     

Does algorithmic trading harm liquidity? Evidence from Brazil

This paper provides the first evidence of algorithmic trading (AT) reducing liquidity in the Brazilian equities market. Our results are contrary to the majority of work which finds a positive relationship between AT and liquidity. Using the adoption of a new data center for the B3 exchange as an exogenous shock, we report evidence that AT increased realized spreads in both firm fixed-effects and vector autoregression estimates for 26 stocks between 2017 and 2018 using high-frequency data. We also provide evidence that AT increases commonality in liquidity, evidencing correlated transactions between automated traders.     

Wealth transfer through private placements: Evidence from China

We examine private issuance of public equity (PIPE) in China, and our results suggest that PIPE investors benefit from the price manipulation before and after issuance. These investors tend to cash out after lockup expiration and make large profits. We also find evidence that the trading of PIPE investors after lockup expiration is informed. Tests about the abnormal returns in the 3 years after lockup expiration suggest that at least part of the benefits PIPE investors receive come from wealth transfer from outside investors. Overall, PIPE issuers in China seem to use an opaque mechanism to compensate PIPE investors.     

Option trading after the opening bell and intraday stock return predictability

Prior literature finds that information is reflected in option markets before stock markets, but no study has explored whether option volume soon after market open has predictive power for intraday stock returns. Using novel intraday signed option-to-stock volume data, we find that a composite option trading score (OTS) in the first 30 min of market open predicts stock returns during the rest of the trading day. Such return predictability is greater for smaller stocks, stocks with higher idiosyncratic volatility, and stocks with higher bid–ask spreads relative to their options’ bid–ask spreads. Moreover, OTS is a significantly stronger predictor of intraday stock returns after overnight earnings announcements. The evidence suggests that option trading in the 30 min after the opening bell has predictive power for intraday stock returns.     

Strategic insider trading around earnings announcements in Australia

This paper tests, within the Australian setting, whether directors strategically time trades in their own firms, around earnings announcements, in the context of impediments to trading in the immediately preceding period. I show that both signed and unsigned trade activity are insignificantly different from zero in the preceding period, and significantly negative and positive after the event. Further, directors in Australia significantly sell following positive earnings news, and buy after negative news, providing evidence of ‘indirect’ trading. Directors’ trades in the longer-term pre-announcement period are also negatively related to the news content sentiment, contrary to expectation. Finally, I find evidence of positive autocorrelation between directors’ trades over the longer-term past, and those executed after earnings announcements, which, in the absence of the ‘short-swing’ rule in Australia, casts doubt over short-term strategic insider trading, more generally.