Health shocks and mortgage debt payoff among American homeowners over age 50: A survival analysis

Mortgage debt is financially burdensome for many older homeowners in the United States. As people age, declining health can bring about increased healthcare costs. Focusing on homeowners aged 50 and older in the U.S., we investigate two research questions: (1) To what extent does a heath shock affect the likelihood of paying off a mortgage voluntarily or involuntarily? and (2) how long does a health shock delay the time it takes to pay off a mortgage? We used eight biannual waves (2004–2018) of the Health and Retirement Study containing 11,772 borrowers to build survival regression models. Results showed that a health shock reduced the likelihood of voluntary payoff by 12%, while it increased the probability of involuntary payoff by 18%. A health shock delayed voluntary and involuntary payoffs for 30 and 21 months, respectively. We discuss tax deduction and HELOCs as strategies to reduce older homeowners' mortgage strain.     

Learning equilibrium mean-variance strategy

We study a dynamic mean-variance portfolio optimization problem under the reinforcement learning framework, where an entropy regularizer is introduced to induce exploration. Due to the time–inconsistency involved in a mean-variance criterion, we aim to learn an equilibrium policy. Under an incomplete market setting, we obtain a semi-analytical, exploratory, equilibrium mean-variance policy that turns out to follow a Gaussian distribution. We then focus on a Gaussian mean return model and propose a reinforcement learning algorithm to find the equilibrium policy. Thanks to a thoroughly designed policy iteration procedure in our algorithm, we prove the convergence of our algorithm under mild conditions, despite that dynamic programming principle and the usual policy improvement theorem failing to hold for an equilibrium policy. Numerical experiments are given to demonstrate our algorithm. The design and implementation of our reinforcement learning algorithm apply to a general market setup.     

An Application of the Dynamic Network DEA Model: The Case of Banks in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

In this study, we apply the dynamic network slack-based measure data envelopment analysis model (DNSBM) to measure the efficiency of Taiwanese banks during the period 2005–11. Using the network structure, we define intellectual capital creation capability as one of the production stages. In order to capture the dynamics of the transformation process, the nonperforming loans and loan loss reserves are defined as carryover items. This study offers sufficient information for managers to understand not only the overall performance of their banks but also the efficiency of each production stage and the dynamic changes of the overall and divisional efficiencies.     

Modelo de gestión logística para pequeñas y medianas empresas en México

The market opening and the globalization of supply chains, demand a structural changes in which logistics has a strategic role. Nowadays, clients evaluate product quality, its value added and its availability in time and form, which implies a need to make the process efficient. Several experts have proposed some logistics management models to increase competitiveness in the market, but some of these models are too ambitious for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) due to their informal structure and their lack of technical knowledge; other models make indirect reference to the internal information flows, which include whole system disintegration because of the weak interrelation among the different areas. In Mexico, SMEs represent 4.2%, they generate 31.5% of employment and provide 37% of the gross domestic product; that is why it is important to reinforce their competitive position in the market. This research presents the design of a conceptual model of logistic management for SMEs which could provide comprehensive solution through control of the variables involved in the logistics process; to verify that the variables considered in each identified dimension are correct factor analysis was used.     

Manifestaciones psicosomáticas,compromiso y burnout como consecuentes del clima y la cultura organizacional: un análisis de ruta (path analysis)

The aim of this paper was to study the structural relationship on an path analysis between 13 se-lected variables, explaining a model of occupational health and labor climate: variables of culture (leadership and organizational support), climate (communication and cohesion), burnout (wear emo-tional, depersonalization and dissatisfaction achievement) commitment (affective, normative and continuity) and psychosomatic manifestations (sleep, gastrointestinal and pain). A sample of 1629 subjects of a multinational telecommunications company was used. Two structural models were performed in path analysis using AMOS-IBM version 19, program using the maximum likelihood method, after appropriate testing setting, a path model with 12 significant variables was obtained, eliminating organizational support perceived, a satisfactory reliability was obtained by Cronbach's alfa, the model can be compared and improved in subsequent studies. The burnout explained by route analysis, the importance of a good organizational climate and culture to increase affective commitment, and decrease psychosomatic manifestations. As a model of occupational health, the findings are important for the diagnosis, prevention or intervention in occupational health through studies of organizational climate.     

Tourism at Costalegre,Mexico: An ecosystem services-based exploration of current challenges and alternative futures

Tourism, as all human activities, is dependent on the natural environment and its respective ecosystem services (ES). Different user groups manage and consume these touristic ES differently, resulting in discrepancies and potential conflicts. Despite the urgency to find inclusive local approaches for sustainable development, tourism studies still analyze socio-economic and ecological impacts separately and lack integrated social–ecological approaches to improve foresight in tourism planning. Based on a growing concern regarding the future of Costalegre on the Jalisco coast of Western Mexico, we analyze through interviews, surveys, and participant observation the dependence of tourism on specific ecosystem services and conduct a scenario analysis which shows present and future implications for the social–ecological system. Furthermore, this analysis shows in detail how different scenarios change ES provision and people's livelihoods. Key findings include identifying freshwater provision and cultural ES as the most important touristic ES. At a regional scale, peasants in ejidos are the main ES stewards, whereas high-class tourism facilities constitute important local stewards. Benefits, mainly access to freshwater and the beach, are unequally distributed, provoking conflicts among different ES user groups that may escalate in the near future. Improved communication between all user groups and strengthening of key political actors seem to be the most immediate recommendations to ensure the long term sustainability of this particular region. This work may contribute to improved planning and decision-making as our ES based scenarios are a first step to integrate social–ecological knowledge into improved decision-making. At a local scale, the study reveals the most likely future development options and their social and ecological consequences. It could also serve as a baseline for informed policy making.     

Which Way is “Up” in Upgrading? Trajectories of Change in the Value Chain for South African Wine

Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis uses the concept of upgrading to highlight paths for developing country firms to “move up the value chain,” usually through the lenses of four categories—product, process, functional, and inter-sectoral upgrading. The implicit normative expectation is that these firms move toward producing higher value-added products and/or take on more sophisticated functions along a value chain. In this article, upgrading is approached more broadly as “reaching a better deal,” including a balance between rewards and risk. The case study of South African wine shows that better product quality, improved processes, and some functional upgrading have co-existed with processes of “downgrading,” higher risks, and limited rewards, especially in traditional export markets. A reflection on further conceptual development and directions for empirical research is also provided.     

行政管理案例分析课程的教学方法

案例教学对激发学生的学习积极性和主动性等方面具有重要作用。提高行政管理案例分析课程的教学质量应采用多样化的教学方法:选用典型的案例,利用现代教学手段,采用讨论、辩论、情境模拟等多种形式,强化教师与学生的职责等。     

试析法治路径的悖论

中国法治的路径选择存在着悖论性问题.以一种语境化的分析方法,在对"自治"与"他治"、"政府主导"与"民主参与"、"确定"与"不确定性"三组范畴的比对中,辨析法治路径的悖论性内容,借以补正与完善法治路径选择中的某些理论问题.     

冷清与坚持：改革开放30年来行政诉讼检察监督的研究回溯——以CNKI期刊数据库论文为分析素材

CNKI期刊数据库收录的相关文献表明,30多年（1979-2010）来,虽然只有少数理论界人士关注了行政诉讼检察监督的研究,但是已经涉及了行政诉讼检察监督的正当性、监督方式、监督范围、监督程序等多个方面。特别是在监督方式方面,涉及到了抗诉、参与诉讼、提起公诉、支持诉讼的探讨;在监督范围方面,有全面监督、有限监督、诉讼监督、审判监督的阐释。这些研究对于行政诉讼检察监督制度的完善具有重要启示。