民营资本的进入对我国风电产业发展的影响——基于断点回归的分析

为克服单差法存在变量内生性,倍差法对于控制组的严格要求往往无法得到满足,故文中采用断点回归的分析方法,在无对照组的情形下,对我国风电产业2012~2015年的资产总计、主营业务收入以及发明专利数月度数据进行实证研究,探究民营资本的进入对我国风电产业的影响。实证结果表明,从短期看,民营资本的进入对我国风电产业规模与技术效率具有统计上的显著正面作用,具有一定的经济意义;另外,这一机制的推行对产业创新产生了显著的负面作用。     

Lone Mothers: What is to be done?

This Dialogue presents the views of four authors, from the US, the UK, and Norway, on the best policies to help lone mothers. Lone mothers face an inevitable dilemma in allocating their time between earning income and caring for their children. The low-earning capacity of women in an unequal labor market exacerbates the problem, causing material hardship for many lone mothers and their families. The policy solutions proposed lie along a spectrum, ranging from those that seek to enable all lone mothers to take employment to those that aim to let mothers choose whether to take employment or care for their children themselves. Other policies discussed concern ways to value and support caregiving, improve the low-wage labor market for women, and provide a set of income supports that would both boost income and provide time to care for children.     

Cost-effectiveness of a continuous glucose monitoring system with trending and rate information to predict hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

Summary

This study seeks to determine the cost-effectiveness of the FreeStyle Navigator? continuous glucose monitoring system compared with self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) when predicting hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. A Markov model was constructed, and initial model analysis demonstrates that use of the FreeStyle Navigator? by a patient who is trained in diabetes management is more cost-effective than SMBG, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $267 per quality-adjusted life-month ($3,204 per quality-adjusted life-year). The real-time glucose level rate of change and trend information provided by the FreeStyle Navigator? allows appropriately trained patients to improve upon decisions regarding self-treatment to prevent hypoglycaemic and hyperglycaemic episodes, resulting in a lower treatment cost and higher effectiveness than untrained patients. Based on current performance attributes, a device such as the FreeStyle Navigator? would be more cost-effective than other glucose-monitoring devices, meeting the $50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold used by payers for adoption of new technology.     

空间视角下R&D投入对区域创新能力的影响研究——基于科技政策组合的调节作用

基于知识生产函数模型和创新地理学理论,本文利用我国30个省(区、市)2008~2020年的面板数据,通过空间计量模型实证分析R&D投入对区域创新能力的影响及空间溢出效应,并从政策目标与政策工具的耦合协调性视角理解科技政策组合,分析科技政策组合的调节效应。研究发现,我国省域创新能力呈现由东向西逐渐减弱的“梯形”分布特征;R&D资金和R&D人员对于本地区域创新能力提升具有显著的正向影响,但空间溢出效应均不显著;科技政策组合正向调节R&D投入对区域创新能力的促进作用。对此,国家应制定适宜的区域创新战略,地方政府应探索差异化创新驱动发展路径并提升科技政策组合的耦合协调性。     

成渝城市群创新网络空间结构演化及优化策略研究——基于社会网络分析法

随着信息化时代的到来以及全球分工的进一步推进,城市网络已然成为区域创新研究的重要视角。本文以成渝城市群为分析对象,以该区域内16个地级市间联合专利为分析变量,借助社会网络分析法构建了该地区近10年来的创新网络,并借助点度中心度、接近中心度、凝聚子群分析、网络密度等指标方法对该网络组织框架及其演进过程进行了可视化分析。研究发现在考察期内:(1)网络密度不断提升,形成了以成都为绝对核心,重庆、宜宾、绵阳等多次中心的网络结构;(2)节点城市间网络地位相差较为悬殊,创新资源、创新能力相差较大;(3)内部子群数量逐渐减少,成员间合作模式日益成熟。     

金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策

本文利用2015年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,分析了金融素养、家庭财富与家庭创业决策三者之间的关系。整体上,金融素养的提高显著增加了家庭参与创业的可能性,但家庭参与创业面临着财富约束效应;而金融素养对家庭财富具有替代作用,提高金融素养有效缓解了家庭的财富约束效应,促进家庭参与创业。同时,研究发现家庭财富对家庭创业决策的影响并不存在明显的城乡差异,但金融素养更能缓解农村家庭创业所面临的财富约束效应。另外,提高金融素养能有效缓解家庭的信贷约束,增加其风险偏好,间接地促进创业。     

Headline Impression Management in the Earnings Press Releases of TSX Venture Exchange Firms*

This paper explores firms traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) Venture Exchange and their voluntary disclosure practices by focusing on earnings press releases (EPRs). We compare the characteristics of EPR issuers and non-issuers and investigate how the former group uses headline impression management in their EPRs to highlight firm performance. More precisely, we examine emphasis and tone management techniques in the headlines of over 1,300 EPRs by TSX Venture Exchange (TSX-V) firms. Our results show that the main determinants of the EPR disclosure choice are the achievement of positive revenue, an increasing trend in firm market value, and industry type. We find that EPR issuers reinforce and repeat positive results in the headlines of EPRs and use positive tone management to highlight positive financial performance. Our results confirm the association between firm performance and strategic placement of performance results, while illustrating that the strength of this association varies by industry and by EPR characteristics such as EPR length and numerical intensity. Overall, this paper sheds light on TSX-V firms, their disclosure practices, and potential violations of recommendations from regulators regarding avoiding exaggerated or promotional language in press releases.     

Macroeconomic adjustment with managed exchange rates and capital controls: Some lessons from China

This paper examines the performance of capital controls and exchange-rate management when the economy finds itself in dark corners. These are times when the real sector experiences a sequence of prolonged negative shocks from world demand, while the central bank faces low world interest rates on its foreign-exchange reserve holdings. We examine two regimes, one of a fixed exchange rate with strong capital controls and another with a more open capital account with a managed exchange rate. We show how this model replicates recent experiences of China as it moved from a relatively fixed exchange rate regime with strong capital controls to a more flexible exchange rate regime with a more open capital account. Our results show that capital-account liberalization should be accompanied by domestic price liberalization to avoid large losses in foreign exchange reserve and jumps in unemployment during dark corners in the more open regime.     

The Ottoman dissolution and the İstanbul bourse between war and peace: a foreign exchange market perspective on the Great War

The participation of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War caused economic disruptions, huge budget deficits, surmounted inflation rates and excessive depreciation of Lira, the Ottoman currency. Based on the value of Lira against the currencies of Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden that were not in the war, we focus on the effects of news about the war on the foreign exchange rates at the ?stanbul bourse from 1918 to 1919. Our results signify some dates, which match the announcements of the armistices and peace meetings, heralding continuous depreciation of Lira. Thus, the findings support the presence of an expectation on the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire with the peace, marked by the escalation of the loss in trust for the Lira and the power of the state in foreign exchange interventions.     

第二语言学习者产出词汇发展中的语音特征

通过对专业英语学生产出词汇发展中的语音特征调查表明:(1)语音差错项和目的项之间有音相近、形相似的内在的联系;(2)部分语音错误是由于受试者对目的词汇还停留在认知阶段,无法正确地产出;(3)在学习后期,学习者自主地提高了自己的口语要求,在产出过程中出现了连读,导致语音错误增加。