You say you want a (Rose) Revolution? The effects of Georgia's 2004 market reforms

After Georgia declared its independence from the Soviet Union, it experienced civil war and strife for more than a decade. In late 2003, the peaceful Rose Revolution installed a new government that began a series of radical market‐liberal reforms. However, the effectiveness of these reforms was controversial. We offer a rigorous evaluation of these reforms via the synthetic control method which creates a credible counterfactual. Compared to the synthetic controls, we find that the reforms enacted after the Rose Revolution led to significant improvements in Georgia's social and economic development, albeit with temporary side effects and argue that this case provides some support for the effectiveness of rapid, multidimensional reform.     

Is it the economic policy,stupid? Economic policy,political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage

Incumbent politicians have a well-known advantage in seeking re-election. Using the Economic Freedom of North America dataset, we examine how changes in economic policy during an incumbent governor's tenure influence the probability of losing their re-election bid. Put simply, does economic policy matter for the incumbent advantage? The results suggest that a decrease in economic freedom increases the probability of an incumbent loss, regardless of the governor's party. A decomposition analysis indicates that these results are primarily driven by the government spending sub-index. Furthermore, a more granular analysis suggests that: (1) increases in government consumption spending and government employment are associated with a lower probability of re-election among Democratic incumbent governors, but a higher probability among Republicans; (2) increases in transfer payments relative to personal income reduce the likelihood of re-election, regardless of party; and (3) among Republican incumbents, increases of income taxation and of top marginal tax rates are associated with a higher and lower, respectively, probability of losing re-election. Finally, controlling for a variety of demographic, political and socioeconomic factors, we find that high unemployment increases the probability that an incumbent loses re-election, while increasing net population migration reduces it.     

Optimal policy for environmental goods trade in asymmetric oligopolistic eco-industries

In this paper, we examine the optimal structure of an environmental tax to pollution, a production subsidy to a domestic eco-industry, and an import tariff on environmental goods (EGs) in a two-country model where the home country imports EGs from the foreign country. Home and foreign firms that produce EGs engage in Cournot competition. We then assume that the number of the home local firms which produce EGs is constant, but that of the foreign firms is variable. Our main findings are as follows: (I) The optimal environmental tax level may be lower than the Pigouvian level even if the tax has a positive impact on the output of EGs produced by a domestic firm. (II) The optimal tariff level may be positive when the country implements the first best policy combination in a closed economy regarding the environmental tax and the subsidy. (III) The optimal subsidy level may be positive, and then the subsidy may be substitutive for the import tariff on EGs.     

市场化进程中的我国银行业绩效分析

本文首先回顾了有关市场结构与银行绩效之间关系的理论文献和实践经验,并总结出四种判断标准.其次分析了我国银行业市场化进程以及对银行绩效的影响,并实证分析了市场结构、存款规模、市场容量以及外部经济环境对银行绩效的影响.最后得出结论并提出有关建议.     

基于金融自由化的中国金融安全预警研究

国际经验表明,金融自由化程度越高,金融体系的脆弱性越大,发生金融危机的机率越高,金融安全越重要。本文遵循"金融自由化—金融危机—金融安全"的逻辑思路,运用改进的熵值法和KLR信号法对我国金融安全进行实证研究,得出结论认为,1994年以来我国金融业基本在相对安全的情况下运行,但我国有必要建立一套金融安全预警体系。     

Impact of Cross-Strait Trade Liberalization： A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the potential economic effects of trade liberalization across the Taiwan Strait. Our simulation results reveal that cross-Strait trade liberalization will have significant positive impacts on external trade, domestic investment and real GDP for the economies in this area in general and in Taiwan in particular. Furthermore, the negative impact from the formation of a free trade arrangement between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland on Hong Kong seems to be rather small. These results suggest that cross-Strait trade liberalization is very likely to bring about a win-win situation for the economies in this area.     

美国、日本等国家和中国台湾地区利率自由化的经验与启示

美国、日本、印度、智利等国家以及中国台湾地区利率自由化的经验与教训对中国利率市场化有着重要的启示。通过对其利率自由化步骤和过程的分析可以看出,金融市场比较成熟是其改革的前提,逐步放宽管制是其改革步骤,即在金融市场比较成熟的条件下推进利率自由化。中国不能直接照搬这些操作,而应该先培育金融市场,待实现利率市场化之后,再参考这些经验,深化利率改革。     

利率市场化背景下银行系统性危机的实证研究

从利率市场化的国际经验来看,无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家,其实施过程都容易导致不同程度的银行业危机。采用1973~2012年42个国家的面板数据,对利率市场化背景下的银行业危机进行的实证研究表明：利率市场化的推进将增加银行系统性危机发生的机率,特别是在存款利率市场化阶段,而严格的银行监管是抑制银行系统危机发生的有效方法;显性存款保险制度的设立无助于利率市场化后银行系统性风险的防范,甚至有可能会增加危机发生的机率;资本账户开放下进行利率市场化会增加银行系统危机发生的机率。利率市场化进程中允许开设民营银行不会增加银行系统危机的发生机率。     

中国农村金融市场中非价格信贷配给的理论和实证分析

本文建立农村金融市场中非价格信贷配给的理论分析框架,基于特殊设计的直接诱导式询问方法,对农户面临的非价格信贷配给机制进行调查和识别,并实证分析影响非价格信贷配给机制的因素。研究发现,农村利率市场化改革以来,农村金融机构并没有将灵活的利率差异化管理作为弥补潜在贷款损失的手段。当前农村金融市场中多种类型的非价格信贷配给机制并存,农村金融机构的信贷合约特征和放贷行为偏好使得一部分农户被配给出信贷市场,一部分农户主动退出信贷市场。农村金融机构倾向于与农村地区少数生产规模较大、具有稳定收入和身份特征的农户建立稳定的、以重复放贷为基础的信贷供给机制,不具备这些特征的农户将面临配给,这与利率管制时期的放贷行为并无本质差异。未来须调整仅仅以增加农村金融供给解决融资难题的改革思路,深入到市场结构、信贷合约和产品创新以及包括公司治理、风险甄别和内部管理机制在内的农村金融机构治理机制等微观层面的改革。     

美国实施和放松Q条例的利率改革研究

美国自20世纪30年代大危机后开始在Q条例下实施存款利率管制,后自20世纪70年代开始放松存款利率管制。本文回顾了此过程中美国的具体做法,将放松Q条例过程区分为大额存款利率市场化、储蓄存款和小额定期存款利率市场化,及活期存款利率市场化三个阶段,分析其动因,阐明所采取的市场和监管方面的创新举措。