Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

从国际经验看利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响

在十二五时期,我国的利率市场化进程将不断加快,而在这个阶段中,放开存贷款利率已经成为了我国开展市场化改革的一项重要任务。在本文中,将从国际经验的角度对利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响进行一定的研究与分析。     

Investment liberalization — Why a restrictive cross-border merger policy can be counterproductive

Investment liberalizing countries are often concerned that cross-border mergers and acquisitions, in contrast to greenfield investments, might have an adverse effect on domestic firms and consumers. However, given that domestic assets are sufficiently scarce, we identify a preemption effect and an asset complementarity effect, which imply that the acquisition price is substantially higher than the domestic seller's profits. Moreover, we show that for the acquisition to take place, the MNE must be sufficiently efficient when using the domestic assets, otherwise rivals will expand their business, thereby making the acquisition unprofitable. Consequently, restricting cross-border M&As may also hurt consumers.     

Privatization and foreign competition

This paper determines the equilibrium market structure in an international oligopoly, where a state enterprise is sold at an auction. The paper suggests that high greenfield costs and high trade costs do not necessarily induce foreign acquisitions in privatizations, despite the fact that foreign firms would gain considerably from acquiring in such situations. The reason is that domestic firms can then prevent foreign firms from becoming strong local competitors and thus, their willingness to pay for the state assets is high.     

《资本账户开放内涵及定义的探讨》

由于资本账户交易的复杂性,关于资本账户开放,国际上没有严格统一的权威定义,对相关概念进行辨析后可以发现,常见的资本账户开放定义有一定的欠缺。资本账户开放可定义为"持续地避免对资本跨货币区边境的交易进行各种直接和间接的限制"。     

利率市场化对商业银行影响的经验及启示——以台湾为例

利率市场化的加速推进给国内城商行的经营发展带来深刻的影响。国内利率市场化遵循渐进改革思路,与台湾地区利率市场化具有相似之处,经历14年的利率市场化改革,台湾银行业在低利差的环境下通过推进组织流程优化来提升运营效率;强化金融服务手段来改善资金来源结构,从而降低资金成本;依托金融控股公司平台,发挥整合行销效益,扩大客户基础;积极调整优化资产结构,大力拓展民营企业和消费金融业务等举措实现发展转型及安全稳健经营。台湾银行业的发展经验值得国内城商行借鉴。     

商业银行应对利率市场化能力探析——以抚顺为例

以抚顺为例,对商业银行应对利率市场化改革的能力及存在问题进行分析研究,提出应提升商业银行定价能力、合理确定内部资金转移价格、建立存款保险制度、加强监管和引导.     

Monetary dynamics: a market approach

The behaviour of the short-run responses implied by the identification of a long-run money demand relationship is examined. These responses have recently been interpreted as representing the policy stance of the monetary authority. However, as movements in the monetary aggregate reflect both demand and supply adjustments, estimating the short-run dynamics solely within the money demand relationship may produce biased results. In order to address this issue, the paper explicitly acknowledges the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside the demand for money function. While the interaction of the two equations continues to produce the long-run quantity theory result, the additional detail provides more accurate estimates of the individual short-run adjustments within the two equations.     

日本资本市场开放:动因、过程与经验教训

战后日本经济的恢复与发展和来自美国、OECD等外部环境的压力是日本资本市场对外开放的内外两大背景因素,日本采取的是全方位的有限制的渐进的直接开放模式。日本政府采取的逐步开放政策,对于日元向资本项目下自由兑换体制的平稳过渡发挥了积极作用。由于我国目前的情况与日本有相似性,因此,深入分析日本资本市场开放的动因、过程与经验教训,可对我国资本市场的开放提供借鉴。     

Religion,social capital and business bankruptcy in the United States, 1921–1932

We consider the value of social capital that derives from membership in a church. American states with larger churchgoing populations had lower business bankruptcy rates from 1921 to 1932, and states in which the churchgoing population was concentrated in few churches had business bankruptcy rates that were lower still. Both voluntary and involuntary bankruptcy were lower in states with higher church membership. The evidence suggests that church membership acted on bankruptcy through a safety net mechanism and not solely through indicating a preference for honouring commitment.