警惕金融自由化之路上的陷阱

认为金融自由化虽然是发展中国家融入世界经济体系的必要历程,但必须辩证地看待。在金融自由化进程中,可能会遇到许多陷阱,这主要包括:国家主权让渡的陷阱,财政能力弱化的陷阱,金融自由化进程无序的陷阱,金融监管滞后的陷阱,过渡依赖外资的陷阱以及银行体系脆弱性的陷阱等。东南亚等国的金融危机,就是这些陷阱所致。所以,正确认识这些陷阱的存在与危害性,对于即将踏上金融自由化之路的我国来讲,有着非常重要的理论与现实意义。     

金融自由化与国际化对我国经济的影响

金融自由化是金融发展的必然趋势,进而能够促进经济的增长。但不可否认的是,金融自由化也使得金融的脆弱性加剧,进而引发了全球经济衰退的危机。中国入世后,金融自由化与国际化对我国的经济产生了深远影响,中国金融市场在不断迈向自由化与国际化的道路上也遇到了一定的困境。     

Production response to price risk and market liberalization of Nigerian major agricultural crops

This study models supply response for major agricultural crops in Nigeria which include the standard arguments and price risk. The data comes from Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and statement of account, National Bureau of Statistics＇ abstract of statistics and annual Agricultural survey manual. The data are analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag and cointegration and error correction models. The results indicate that producers are responsive not only to price but also to price risk and exchange rate.     

Economic Volatility and Capital Account Liberalization in Emerging Countries

Economic volatility has increased drastically in the age of financial liberalization. The tendency among mainstream economists has been to explain this trend by government misdeeds and various market imperfections. For instance, government overspending was the main culprit in the first generation models of currency crises. Following the Asian crisis the emphasis shifted onto capital flow reversals, and arguments based on the ‘moral hazard’ problems began to replace the emphasis on the monetized government deficits. This paper outlines an explanation of economic volatility that is not based on moral hazard problems or other market distortions. Two stylized facts associated with the aftermath of financial and capital account liberalization are singled out for emphasis and brought together in the context of a macroeconomic framework that draws from Keynes’ Treatise. These are: (i) liquidity preference becomes intertwined with currency substitution, producing a macroeconomic destabilizer that explains procyclical changes in bank credit independently of moral hazard problems; and (ii) asset prices become fairly easy to predict, stimulating destabilizing ‘trend’ speculation by foreign investors, which means that profit seeking and market rationality might lie behind erratic shifts in capital flows.     

服务贸易开放的经济效应及相关指标的构建

服务贸易是当今国际贸易中发展最为迅速的领域。随着国际服务贸易的发展及其在国际贸易中的比重日益上升世界各国纷纷加强了对服务贸易的研究。本文从服务贸易开放理论的回顾与比较优势理论适用的评价入手分析服务贸易开放的福利效应,说明开放的好处和必要性,并构建了服务贸易开放的衡量指标体系。     

Capital account liberalization and dynamic price discovery: evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks

We analyse the effects of a recent financial reform (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect) that enables cross-market investment between Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Using a VECM, we find that the reform announcement considerably narrows the equilibrium level of price disparity and strengthens the price comovement of shares that are cross-listed in both markets. The estimated equilibrium relationship is in support of the relative law of one price. We find that both markets adjust in response to a disequilibrium in price disparity, leading to a sizeable error correction activity. The Shanghai market contributes to approximately two-thirds of the price discovery process. Competition and informativeness of trading affect the relative role of price discovery in each market. Finally, the reform implementation reinforces the long-run cointegration relationship and strengthens the short-run price comovements of cross-listed stocks despite the widening price disparity during the period.     

Growth,deregulation and rent seeking in post-war British economy

Post-war political consensus about the need for government action to rectify market failure began to unravel in the 1970s, and even the need for prudential control of banking and finance began to be challenged by the start of the 1980s. Regulatory oversight was relaxed in the belief that emerging techniques in financial engineering would render irrelevant fears of sharp periodic downturns that have historically been the consequence of lightly regulated finance. The outcome of this new policy, embracing the idea of unregulated markets to deliver greater prosperity, is disappointing. We find that the average growth rate of UK GDP and output per person employed for three decades from the start of liberalization was no greater than that in the previous three post-war decades. Cyclical fluctuations were deeper. A remarkable feature of the second period is the sharp rise in income inequality in favour of the very top earners. An illusion of greater prosperity for a wider segment may have been created in the second period due to asset price bubbles and housing inflation.     

US Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: Strategy and Policy Issues

East Asian trade and investment policies have attracted US investment into the region, but these policies should be fine-tuned for the region to compete effectively for US investment inflow and increase their global share of US foreign direct investment. The changes should consider the needs of the US investors and East Asia's own economic development. Bilateral free trade agreements with the US are the likely channel for these changes, but the question is whether East Asia is ready for a comprehensive and deep liberalization. East Asia should work toward a regional investment policy framework to facilitate and expand the regional production network developed by the US foreign direct investment.     

WTO框架下的国家金融安全和金融风险可控性分析

金融安全已成为国家经济安全最为重要的内容之一。金融服务贸易开放对发展中国家产生了一些负面效应和巨大的经济效益。由于WTO框架下的成员国在其国内政策实施的独立性和资金流动的可控性方面仍然能行使主权国家的功能,金融风险是可控的。