The Early Careers Of Engineers And The Accumulation Of Skills In The Canadian Economy

In this paper we use world cycling records to study the pattern of technological development of the track bicycle. We find that there is a strong evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among cycling records which in turn provides indirect evidence of ‘contagious’ effects among technological innovations. Interestingly, the ‘contagiousness’ of records is not a salient characteristic of track and field competitions where, arguably, technology plays a smaller role.     

中国证券市场机构投资者的羊群行为研究

“羊群行为”是金融市场上一个令人困惑的现象,长期以来,投资者的羊群行为一直被认为是导致股票市场剧烈波动和引发市场系统风险的一个重要原因。以往对美国金融市场的研究表明,机构投资者在进行投资时存在典型的羊群效应,而研究表明我国证券市场中机构投资者的羊群行为更加典型。对这个问题作一个文献综述,并在此基础上进一步作理论研究和政策分析。     

Endogenous structural change and crisis in a multiple time-scales growth model

The slow and endogenous twist of economic macro-structure makes up an important evolutionary feature of capitalist economies, and may be at the root of structural crisis. In this line, a Goodwinian growth model with increasing returns and profit-sharing that tries to picture a simple scenario of the seventies crisis is considered. It is shown that the exhaustion of the Kaldor-Verdoorn “productivity law” can entail, in a nonlinear framework, a “catastrophic” bifurcation from a “high” to a “low” growth path. Slow/fast dynamical systems then allow one to formalize a multiple time-scales dynamics where the growth path is shaped by the structural framework in which it takes place, but has also a long -un feedback. Structural change and crisis appear as long term and endogenous outcomes.     

行为金融学的研究现状与展望

由心理学家和金融学家共同发展起来的行为金融学越来越引人注目,它以前景理论和各种行为金融模型为代表性成果,能有效分析金融市场中由于心理因素引起的投资者失误偏差和市场异象,是现代金融学理论的有益补充。未来的行为金融学如想成为现代金融理论体系的中心,或作为一门单独学科而存在,必须形成统一的理论基础、严密的分析范式、明确的研究主线、研究对象和研究方法以及建立新的基于行为的核心模型。     

促进组织变革的人力资源管理策略研究

为了适应复杂多变的经济环境,企业通常要进行一系列的组织变革,这就需要具备相应的人力资源管理策略。针对不同的变革类型,本文提出了不同的人力资源管理策略。战略变革应该采取均衡人力资源的评估和创建与战略目标一致的企业文化的两种策略;在结构变革中应该注重整合组织机构和指引变革方向;在人员变革中应该采取选聘优秀人才、合理配置人才以及设计、干预并整合裁员过程等策略;在文化变革中应该注重培育适合变革的氛围、利用激励、晋升等方式传播新文化以及塑造共同的变革愿景等。本文强调了在组织变革中直线部门的重要作用,指出了企业的组织变革不仅仅是人力资源管理部门的职能,相关直线部门也有着不可推卸的责任,它们应该积极配合人力资源部门,最大限度地鼓励引导本部门员工参与组织变革,促进企业良性发展的管理建议。     

An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms

This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries, we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, potatoes, and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize, wheat, and potatoes towards squash, fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching.     

A functional approach for studying technological progress: Extension to energy technology

This paper extends a broad functional category approach for the study of technological capability progress recently developed and applied to information technology to a second key case—that of energy based technologies. The approach is applied to the same three functional operations—storage, transportation and transformation—that were used for information technology by first building a 100 plus year database for each of the three energy-based functional categories. In agreement with the results for information technology in the first paper, the energy technology results indicate that the functional approach offers a stable methodology for assessing longer time technological progress trends. Moreover, similar to what was found with information technology in the first study, the functional capability for energy technology shows continual—if not continuous—improvement that is best quantitatively described as exponential with respect to time. The absence of capability discontinuities—even with large technology displacement—and the lack of clear saturation effects are found with energy as it was with information. However, some key differences between energy and information technology are seen and these include:

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Lower rates of progress for energy technology over the entire period: 19-37% annually for Information Technology and 3-13% for Energy Technology.

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Substantial variability of progress rates is found within given functional categories for energy compared to relatively small variation within any one category for information technology. The strongest variation is found among capability progress among different energy types.

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More challenging data recovery and metric definition for energy as compared to information technology.

These findings are interpreted in terms of fundamental differences between energy and information including the losses and efficiency constraints on energy. We apply Whitney's insight that these fundamental differences lead to naturally modular information technology artifacts. The higher progress rates of information-based as opposed to energy-based technologies follows since decomposable systems can progress more rapidly due to the greater ease of independent as opposed to simultaneous development. In addition, the broad implications of our findings to studies of the relationships between technical and social change are briefly discussed.     

The “Business Climate” and Economic Inequality

“Business climate indexes” characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low‐tax, low‐cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality‐of‐life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax‐and‐cost‐related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality.     

银行业在区域经济市场化过程中的策略选择——以振兴东北老工业基地为例

振兴东北是从传统到现代、从计划到市场的经济制度变迁过程.货币政策的区域效应使银行业在东北这一特定区域市场化进程中有了采取区域性策略的可能.在分析东北的区域性经济特点的基础上,针对银行业自身改制和振兴东北的企业问题,本文提出了在东北经济市场化进程中的区域性银行业策略.     

科技金融政策能否降低环境污染？——基于“促进科技与金融结合试点”的准自然实验

在创新驱动城市发展的背景下,科技金融发展为生态环境治理提供了新动力和新方向。本文基于中国2003—2018年262个地级市数据,将“促进科技与金融结合试点”实施视为一次准自然实验,运用双重差分法考察了科技金融政策的环境治理效应及其影响机制。研究发现：首先,科技金融政策的实施对环境污染具有明显的抑制作用,并且与水污染相比,科技金融政策对于空气污染的治理效果更为明显;其次,从城市区位来看,科技金融政策对于东部和北部地区的环境治理效果要优于中部、西部和南部地区;从城市等级来看,科技金融政策对于高等级城市具有更为明显的治污排污效果;最后,中介效应分析表明,金融发展、技术创新和经济规模是科技金融政策改善环境的有效路径。此外,科技金融政策实施对于邻近地区的环境治理具有显著的空间溢出效果。上述分析首次尝试将环境污染纳入到科技金融政策的评估框架中,丰富和完善了环境治理的相关研究,有效地回应了学术界关于科技创新、金融发展和环境治理的争论,为推动经济高质量发展提供了经验证据。