Optimal Portfolios with Bounded Capital at Risk

We consider some continuous-time Markowitz type portfolio problems that consist of maximizing expected terminal wealth under the constraint of an upper bound for the capital at risk. In a Black–Scholes setting we obtain closed-form explicit solutions and compare their form and implications to those of the classical continuous-time mean-variance problem. We also consider more general price processes that allow for larger fluctuations in the returns.     

现代证券投资组合理论在我国应用的局限与思考

我国证券市场是一个新兴市场,借鉴投资理论和推进科学化投资管理对我国证券市场长期稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。文章分析了现代证券投资组合理论在我国证券市场运用受到局限的主要原因。结合我国证券市场的发展的实际,提出了规范和发展我国证券市场的建议。     

抵押风险分析和抵押贷款违约损失率研究

违约损失率是BaselⅡ规定的六大风险指标之一,而抵押是BaselⅡ标准法规定的信用风险缓释工具之一,两者在巴塞尔新资本协议中有着非常关键的地位和作用.本文总结了国内外违约损失率的研究概况,在利用历史数据对我国商业银行抵押贷款的违约损失率进行实证分析后发现:(1)回收率同融资金额成反比;(2)回收率同融资折率成反比;(3)回收率呈"U"型分布.本文的分析有助于进一步探究我国商业银行抵押贷款违约损失率的特征,是量化风险暴露和计算监管资本的基础,并为我们下一步的折率研究做好了铺垫.     

基于CPV模型的房地产信贷信用风险的度量和预测

本文基于CPV模型,对房地产信贷风险进行了度量与预测.结果表明,该模型在度量和预测房地产信贷违约率方面具有较好的效果.房地产信贷的违约率和宏观经济状况紧密相连,当经济状况恶化,房地产信贷违约率上升,当经济状况好转,房地产信贷违约率下降.分别从国家宏观经济、房地产行业状况、房地产企业状况三个层面选择出三个宏观经济因素指标--综合领先指标、国房景气指数和企业景气指数进行研究,结果表明,对于研究房地产信贷的信用风险来说它们是较好的指标,尤其是综合领先指标.     

Farm and farmer characteristics and off‐farm work: evidence from Algeria

Off‐farm work is a widespread, two‐edged, phenomenon that can help both the survival and the demise of small‐ and medium‐sized agricultural exploitations. Given the prevalence of poverty in rural areas, nonfarm income has been credited with helping farmers to survive. But the observed shrinking of rural areas has also raised the question of whether off‐farm work is pulling farmers permanently away from farming. This paper explores the impact of farmer characteristics on the decision to work off‐farm in developing countries where this phenomenon has been largely neglected. A review of theory and prior empirical work suggests four main hypotheses which we test empirically. The results suggest that while some farmer characteristics appear to be universal, others appear to be country‐ or culture‐specific.     

新型监管政策下我国保险资金的资产配置研究——基于大类资产监管和“偿二代”的政策背景

近年来我国保险资金运用监管开始实行“放开前端、管住后端”的政策理念,在前端实行的是资产大类监管政策,在后端实行的是“偿二代”政策。在此新的政策背景下,保险公司如何优化投资结构是一项非常重要的问题。考虑到我国保险业实际监管政策内容,以投资组合的风险最低资本的最小化为优化目标,以大类监管政策中的投资比例限制为约束条件,建立了一个新的投资组合模型,用来计算出各种最优投资组合比例。研究结果表明：在新监管政策下,协议存款、基础设施和不动产的理论配置比例较高, 债券类投资和权益类投资的理论配置比例较低。与理论投资比例相,债券类产品的实际投资比例偏高,而不动产类投资品的实际投资比例偏低,所以我国保险资金在今后的大类资产配置中,应当降低债券的投资比例,适当提高不动产的投资比例。     

Modelling interactions among the housing market and key US sectors

This study evaluates the dynamic interactions among the housing market and ten key US sectors including: consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, industrial, technology, health care, materials, utility and telecommunications. Long-run results indicate that the housing market is integrated with each of the ten sector and that the degree of convergence has increased over time and especially after the onset of the most recent housing crisis. Moreover, the housing market contributes most heavily to the common trends indicating that the housing market is the ‘leader’ market that drives each sector towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate causal linkages emanating from the housing market to each sector with reciprocal feedback. Finally, impulse response function analysis reveal that shocks from each sector affect the housing market but that shocks from the housing market have a (comparatively) more profound and persistent impact on each sector.     

主房公积金沉淀资金存款收益优化研究

在我国住房公积金制度的发展与普及过程中,沉淀资金投资收益低下的问题目益明显。基于某市近年来住房公积金沉淀资金投资银行存款的数据,利用基于持续期的多目标规划模型,分析了沉淀资金存款收益与风险的变化关系,提出了提高沉淀资金收益的存款优化方案。结果表明,优化方案可在当前风险条件下使收益率提高0．213个百分点,或在风险调整的条件下使收益率提高0．518个百分占、。相关结论可为改进住房公积金沉淀资金银行存款管理策略提供支撬提高公积金沉淀资金的存款收益。     

Dynamic causality between the U.S. stock market,the Chinese stock market and the global gold market: implications for individual investors’ diversification strategies

This paper proposes a generalization of the prior VAR and EGARCH model to explore the linkage between returns and volatility transmissions in the U.S. stock market, the Chinese stock market, and the global gold market from 10 July 1996 to 20 July 2018. We found that past returns of the U.S. stock market can predict the current returns of the other two markets, and that significant reciprocal volatility transmission existed within and across all three markets. We further implemented average out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting to show that a risk-adjusted portfolio, such as mean-variance with sample estimator, does not outperform an equal-weighted portfolio. This provides insights for individual investors and helps to explain the ongoing disagreement in the portfolio literature concerning the effectiveness of risk-adjusted portfolios and equal-weighted portfolios when the number of assets is small.     

论抵押物登记的作用及效力

抵押物登记具有广泛的作用,它不仅在特定情况下是抵押合同生效、抵押权成立的必要条件,而且在一般情况下也能强化抵押权的效力,促进抵押权的实现。因此,在担保活动中人们应当重视抵押物登记,即使法律不要求强制登记的抵押行为,债权人也应为了降低抵押风险、保障交易安全,尽可能采取登记措施。