论宏观调控——对我国2003年来宏观调控的几点认识

界定了宏观调控的内涵,论证了宏观调控的必要性,讨论了宏观调控的类型,对宏观调控成效与政策实施时长进行了模型分析,并对学术界就我国2003年开始的宏观调控成效的争论进行了简要的述评。     

南京商圈构造及其对策

工业化、城市化、信息化和市场化的互动推动了都市圈的形成。都市圈的形成可以带来分工与资源重组效应、要素的聚集与扩散效应、分享效应以及新型的竞争与合作效应等。在南京都市圈逐步形成的基础上,南京商圈也已初步出现。在南京商圈的进一步发展中,我们应该明确:城市商业结构的总体结构应是商业专业化的形态结构、布局结构、业态结构和技术结构动态组合的过程,南京及周边城市地区要互动调整自己的商业布局、业态与技术结构,选择适合于自身的竞争战略,形成互相竞争与合作的新型区域关系。     

社区参与旅游发展具体操作分析

社区参与旅游发展具体包括旅游发展决策和旅游发展利益分配两个阶段。社区参与旅游发展利益分配主要从经济利益分配、培训和教育、就业、商机这几个方面来阐述。     

当前农村社会保障面临的难点问题与对策

建立有中国特色的农村社会保障制度是现在和今后一个时期党和政府的一个重要工作。文章分析当前我国农村社会保障制度的现状及存在的难点问题，从而探索以科学发展观为指导的有中国特色的农村社会保障制度的新路径。     

ERP实施项目的成功因素分析

本文以国内ERP实施为研究对象,运用项目生命周期理论,结合ERP实施中属于信息系统项目的特点,把ERP实施项目按生命周期划分为计划、实施、稳定、提高四个阶段,并在文献研究、案例研究和专家访谈法的基础上,运用问卷调查法探讨了各个不同阶段影响ERP实施的成功因素,最后给出了ERP实施模型,以达到提高国内企业ERP实施的成功率,推动信息化建设之目的.     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Mortality,Human Capital and Persistent Inequality

Available evidence suggests high intergenerational correlation of economic status and persistent disparities in health status between the rich and the poor. This paper proposes a mechanism linking the two. We introduce health capital into a two-period overlapping generations model. Private health investment improves the probability of surviving from the first period of life to the next and, along with education, enhances an individual’s labor productivity. Poorer parents are of poor health, unable to invest much in reducing mortality risk and improving their human capital. Consequently, they leave less for their progeny. Despite convex preferences and technologies, initial differences in economic and health status may perpetuate across generations when annuities markets are imperfect.Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation.     

Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Comparing Alternative Approaches. Introduction and Overview

Protecting human health is a primary goal of environmental policy and economic evaluation of health can help policy-makers judge the relative worth of alternative actions. Economists use two distinct approaches in normatively evaluating health. Whereas environmental economists use benefit-cost analysis supported by monetary valuation in terms of willingness-to-pay, health economists evaluate interventions based on cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis (CEA), using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) or similar indexes. This paper provides background on the controversy about the relative merits of these approaches and introduces the remaining papers in the special issue. These papers (with one exception) were presented at a conference sponsored by the Department of Economics at the University of Central Florida with support from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Although CEA might not lead to substantially different implications for environmental policy than benefit-cost analysis, and QALY may provide a benefit transfer tool to fill gaps in the morbidity valuation literature, the papers in this issue raise serious concerns about the suitability of QALY-based CEA for environmental regulatory analysis. QALY does not in general appropriately represent individual preferences for health and CEA is neither independent of income distribution nor adequate to assess efficiency.     

对构建"大湘西"旅游圈的初步设想

湘西地区自古以来就是一个相对独立的地理单元，具有紧密的地缘关系和相近的人文习俗，发展水平相当、经济交往久远，是一个在自然环境和社会发展特征方面都具有较强同一性的多民族省际边界区域。湘西地区旅游开发应打破行政区划限制，发挥整体优势、加强区域合作，构建“大湘西”旅游圈，共同打造区域民族旅游品牌，是培育“大湘西”旅游核心竞争力，实现区域民族旅游业可持续发展的必然选择。     

Willingness to Pay to Reduce Mortality Risks: Evidence from a Three-Country Contingent Valuation Study

Valuing a change in the risk of death is a key input into the calculation of the benefits of environmental policies that save lives. Typically such risks are monetized using the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). Since the majority of the lives saved by environmental policies are those of older persons, there has been much recent debate about whether the VSL should be lower for the elderly to reflect their fewer remaining life years. We conducted a contingent valuation survey in the UK, Italy and France designed to answer this question. The survey was administered in these three countries following a standardized protocol. Our results suggest that the VSL is €1.022 million or €2.264 million, depending on whether we use median or mean WTP. The VSL is not significantly lower for older persons, but is higher for persons who have been admitted to a hospital or emergency room for cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Income is positively and significantly associated with WTP. The income elasticities of the WTP increase gradually with income levels and are between 0.15 and 0.5 for current income levels in EU countries. We use the responses to the WTP questions to estimate the value of an extension in remaining life expectancy. The value of a loss of one year’s life expectancy is €54,000 or €163,000.