Mean and dispersion modelling for policy claims costs

A model for the statistical analysis of the total amount of insurance paid out on a policy is developed and applied. The model simultaneously deals with the number of claims (zero or more) and the amount of each claim. The number of claims is from a Poisson-based discrete distribution. Individual claim sizes are from a continuous right skewed distribution. The resulting distribution of total claim size is a mixed discrete-continuous model, with positive probability of a zero claim. The means and dispersions of the claim frequency and claim size distribution are modeled in terms of risk factors. The model is applied to a car insurance data set.     

A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence

Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a realistic way. Moreover, it is also flexible, in the sense that it allows application in practice. Accurate and transparent approximations are presented, and the results obtained are illustrated through explicit examples.     

Non-parametric and parametric bootstrap techniques for age-to-age development factor methods in stochastic claims reserving

In the literature, one of the main objects of stochastic claims reserving is to find models underlying the chain-ladder method in order to analyze the variability of the outstanding claims, either analytically or by bootstrapping. In bootstrapping these models are used to find a full predictive distribution of the claims reserve, even though there is a long tradition of actuaries calculating the reserve estimate according to more complex algorithms than the chain-ladder, without explicit reference to an underlying model. In this paper we investigate existing bootstrap techniques and suggest two alternative bootstrap procedures, one non-parametric and one parametric, by which the predictive distribution of the claims reserve can be found for other age-to-age development factor methods than the chain-ladder, using some rather mild model assumptions. For illustration, the procedures are applied to three different development triangles.     

The density of the time to ruin for a Sparre Andersen process with Erlang arrivals and exponential claims

We derive expressions for the density of the time to ruin given that ruin occurs in a Sparre Andersen model in which individual claim amounts are exponentially distributed and inter-arrival times are distributed as Erlang(n,?β). We provide numerical illustrations of finite time ruin probabilities, as well as illustrating features of the density functions.     

Australian consumer attitudes to health claim – food product compatibility for functional foods

This study with Australian consumers investigated how appealing different health claims combined with particular food carriers were to Australian consumers, and compared the results of a similar study with Dutch consumers. 149 shoppers considered up to 30 different food concepts, rating how ‘attractive’, ‘believable’, and ‘new and different’ they found each concept and their ‘intention to try’. Each variable was significantly related to intention to try (p < 0.001) and together explained 56% of the intention score. Claims and carriers independently had a significant effect on ratings of attractiveness and intention to try but, unlike the Dutch study, the carrier was a more important predictor of intention to purchase than the claim. Implications for regulation of health claims for food are discussed.     

债转股：对企业经营者产权约束的思考

在发达的市场经济条件下,股权代表控制权,股权约束比债务的约束更为直接,对陷入财务困境的企业实施债转股比迫其破产对银行更为有利;处于转轨改制阶段的中国,股权约束是较债务约束更软的约束形式,对陷入债务危机的国有企业,实施债转股能否化解银行的不良资产,有较大的不确定性。因此,在债转股的进程,生成有剩余索取权的监控主体,促使国有管理方式的变革以有确立规范的股份制等,是债转股新的功能定位。     

Compound trend renewal process with discounted claims: a unified approach

We derive recursive formulas for the moments of compound trend renewal sums with discounted claims. An integral expression for the moment generating function of this risk process is then obtained, from which particular distribution functions are found. We extend the compound (deterministic) trend renewal process by assuming a stochastic trend, a stochastic force of net interest and a stochastic dependence between the inter-occurrence times and the severities of the claims. Finally, stochastic dominance ordering is also observed between the compound trend renewal process and an associated non-homogeneous Poisson process.     

A comparative analysis of hedonic models of nutrition information and health claims on food products: An application to soup products

Over time, the quality of data on food purchases and label information has improved such that hedonic analyses to determine the implicit prices of product attributes can be conducted using more detailed data than in the past. With the availability of more extensive data, it is important to understand the characteristics of the data and implications of using different data sources on results of analyses. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) compare results between two sources of label information and (2) develop a better understanding of the effects of product claims and nutrition information on the value of products to consumers. Trans fat claims, organic claims, private label, package size, and several nutrients were found to influence implicit prices for soup products, and the results between the two data sources are comparable.     

On financial guarantee insurance under stochastic interest rates

We extend the financial guarantee insurance literature by modeling, under stochastic interest rates, private financial guarantees when the guarantor potentially defaults. By performing numerical simulations under plausible parameters values, we characterize the differential impact of the incorporation of stochasticity of interest rates on the valuation of both public and private guarantees.