NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.     

金融危机传染的信用路径

从信用理论来看,金融危机传染的内在路径,就是其传染的信用路径。通过分析发现,金融危机传染的信用路径共有四种:信用主体双向性传染、信用关系性传染、信用心欲性传染、信用信息性传染。一个国家受到他国传染而爆发金融危机往往是四种信用路径的传染同时作用的结果。     

Liquidity Pools, Risk Sharing, and Financial Contagion

This paper reevaluates the Allen–Gale (2000) analysis of interbank deposits to explain financial contagion. This paper modifies the pecking order of asset liquidation developed in Allen–Gale, which is essential in fragility analysis. Furthermore, we also provide a claim structure called liquidity pool that can both achieve risk sharing and prevent financial contagion across regions when asymmetric information about bank assets is absent. This model can partly explain why bank panics reduced substantially after the founding of the Fed and the role of IMF in regional financial crises.     

Do good governance provisions shelter investors from contagion?Evidence from the Russian crisis1

This paper studies how the Russian crisis of 1998 affected listed firms in transition economies. The data cover 394 companies that were listed before the Russian crisis, and include financial, industry, ownership and stock market information. Results show that in the short term (within one month of the crisis) good governance did not shelter investors from contagion. On the contrary, stock returns during the crisis period were lower for the largest and most liquid stocks and markets in the region irrespective of their direct exposure to Russia. The paper also documents that in the longer term (one year after the crisis) recovery was faster in firms without direct trade exposure to Russia, as well as in firms with better firm‐level governance as proxied by the presence of a foreign blockholder. The paper presents evidence that both firm‐ and country‐level characteristics are important in overcoming the effects of a crisis. Firm‐specific characteristics, however, play a bigger role for companies operating in countries with weaker corporate governance.     

商业银行流动性危机传染机理研究

银行危机传染往往给一个国家或地区的经济带来巨大的损失.不完全的银行间拆借市场中隐含了更大的银行危机传染的可能性;银行间的长期资产越多,银行间拆借的短期利率和银行间存款的长期利率越高,银行间拆借市场就越稳定,在遭受流动性冲击时,这一市场发生银行危机传染的可能性就越小.适量的银行存款对传染效应具有阻碍作用.为防范系统性风险,中国商业银行应逐步建立完备的银行间存款市场,减少政府干预,让市场约束力来强化商业银行的风险管理意识.     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

Saving the Euro: Mitigating Financial or Trade Spillovers?

This paper analyzes through what channels the euro crisis affected firms and the efficacy of policies to mitigate the crisis. It analyzes stock price responses for 3,045 nonfinancial firms in 16 countries to four key policy events during 2010–11. Using precrisis benchmarks, it separates financial effects from trade effects and examines how bank and trade linkages propagated shocks. It finds that policy measures affected financially dependent firms more, particularly in creditor countries with greater bank exposure to peripheral euro countries, in statistically and economically significant ways. Trade linkages with peripheral countries played little role, although euro movements meant some differential effects.     

New product adoption in social networks: Why direction matters

Marketing managers and researchers generally agree that analyzing data from social networks and using them to influence consumers' purchase decisions are useful strategies. However, not all social network data may identify the most influential customers. This empirical study of more than 300 students reveals the low explanatory power of friendship networks (e.g., Facebook) and undirected-advice networks (e.g., LinkedIn). Only directed-advice networks (e.g., Google +) clearly identify influential consumers. In addition, the results challenge conventional wisdom that firms should target advisers assuming that they have the strongest influence on new product adoption. This study contradicts this common assumption and reveals that structural equivalence drives product adoption more than cohesion because advisees' adoption pressures advisers to purchase the product as well. Finally, the study shows the value of social network data beyond the traditional ego-centric psychographic metrics, such as innovativeness or opinion leadership.     

Testing for financial contagion based on a nonparametric measure of the cross‐market correlation

When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market comovement after a shock to one country, we propose a test for financial contagion based on a nonparametric measure of the cross-market correlation. Monte Carlo simulation studies show that our test has reasonable size and good power to detect financial contagion, and that Forbes and Rigobon's test (2002) is relatively conservative, indicating that their test tends not to find evidence of contagion when it does exist. Applying our test to investigate contagion from the 1997 East Asian crisis and the 2007 Subprime crisis, we find that there existed international financial contagion from the two financial crises.     

Analysis of the volatility’s dependency structure during the subprime crisis

In this article, we test the hypothesis of contagion amongst sectors within the United States’ economy during the subprime crisis. The econometric methodology applied here is based on the dynamic conditional correlation model proposed by Engle (2002). Further, we applied several Lagrange multiplier (LM)-robust tests to test whether there were structural breaks in series’ dependency structures during the period of interest. Events theoretically classified as relevant to the crisis upshots as well as the interactions between the moments of the series were used as indicator functions to the referred structural breaks. The main conclusion of this study is that one can indeed observe contagion within almost all pairs of sectors’ indices. Thus, we conclude that the dependency structure of the sectors of interest has faced structural changes during the years of 2007 and 2008. Hence, diversification strategies as well as the risk analysis inherent to the portfolios’ management may have been drastically affected.