A Minimizing Risk Strategy for Brazilian Fixed-Income Portfolios

This study presents various risk immunization strategies for fixed-income portfolios, including not only classical measures like duration, convexity, and dispersion but also modern measures such as VaR (value-at-risk) and ES (expected shortfall). Empirical tests are conducted in the Brazilian domestic and international bond market. Because it has had one of highest interest rates since the 1990s, Brazil offers an interesting case study for fixed-income studies. Our results are different for domestic and international bonds. For domestic bonds, using the highest convexity criterion to choose the best portfolio is better than using minimum dispersion, and there is a coincidence between the optimum portfolio selected by the convexity, historical VaR, and ES criteria. For international bonds, our findings indicate that the minimum dispersion strategy performs much better than the maximum convexity strategy. The overall performance of portfolios chosen by minimum VaR and ES criteria is also good, with satisfactory realized returns and squared errors.     

债券市场改革与投资者风险意识研究——来自公司债券发行定价的证据

2015年1月出台的《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》建立了公司债券市场发行“注册制”的雏形。本文研究发现,该办法出台后,投资者风险意识显著提升,风险识别能力显著增强。我国债券市场实施“注册制”后,对证券监管部门、市场投资者等参与主体的权责进行重新定义和划分,参与各方各尽其责,投资者的专业能力和风险意识显著提升,债券市场健康有序发展。在债券违约常态化趋势下,为保证债券市场健康有序发展,监管部门一方面要强化市场约束机制,更加注重投资者教育,打破投资者的刚兑信仰;另一方面要强化投资者保护,健全违约善后机制。     

转轨背景下国债与经济增长关系的长短期动态研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

本文使用1994～2015年中国宏观经济数据,利用SVAR模型对转轨背景下我国国债发行的经济增长效应进行长短期的动态实证研究,分析结果显示：短期范围内我国国债对经济具有提升作用,但在长期我国国债规模的持续膨胀将会阻碍经济的稳定健康发展。而且,从脉冲响应图可以看出我国国债对私人投资存在先挤入后挤出效应,通过我们进一步对模型中各经济变量进行方差分解以后我们发现,从长期角度来看,私人投资比国债对经济和投资波动的解释程度要大,但没有国债对于通货膨胀波动的解释程度大。最后,根据我国目前的经济形势提出了转轨时期如何科学管理我国国债的相关建议。     

Destination Ireland: an ancestral and emotional connection for the American tourist

The direction of the research in this paper is dictated by the particular characteristics attaching to the special relationship that exists between Ireland and the USA. In order to understand the complexities that govern the motivating factors underlying American tourist interest in Ireland, this research examines the singular historical, psychological, emotional, and connectional dimensions that will afford us the knowledge from which deductible theories, conclusions, and recommendations can be extracted. This paper, therefore, seeks to outline the historical framework governing the development of the relationship between the USA and Ireland, and identifies the historical, ancestral, emotional, and connectional factors that bind the two nations. This research presents new empirical findings on the American tourist's quest for ancestral tangibility in destination Ireland. Destination Ireland is marketed in a highly competitive environment and the future of the Irish tourism industry will inevitably be dependent on the ability of tourism industry managers to deliver new viable options and motivations to travel to Ireland. A significant finding in this current research suggests that the development of an ancestral product would address this requirement in the market place.     

地方政府债券违约风险形成机制及防范——基于委托代理问题的分析

就地方政府债券而言,在地方政府和居民之间涉及两类委托代理问题:债权债务的代理问题和公共政策的代理问题。地方政府依凭中央政府的"父爱心理",具有向上转移债务的动机,导致地方政府债券规模人为扩大;地方政府"经济人"特性促使其有意识地运用公共债务追求自身利益而罔顾公共财政风险。这些都隐藏着潜在风险无限增加的可能性。可以从建立相应的法律法规制度、居民退出机制、地方政府内在约束机制、事前制约机制、事后监督机制以及深化政务公开制度来防范信用风险。     

上市公司可转债发行动机分析——基于控制权收益视角的实证研究

为了探讨股东控制权收益对上市公司可转债融资行为的影响,本文以2006-2011年我国发行可转债上市公司和增发上市公司为研究样本,运用logistic回归分析方法分析所选变量对可转债发行动机的影响。研究发现:第一大股东持股比例、每股净资产和每股收益三大指标分别与是否发行可转债显著正相关。     

One index fits none: the conundrum of euro area inflation-linked bonds

Recent empirical research has questioned the added value of inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) in a diversified portfolio, especially in the euro area. This paper relates this finding to the choice of price index. Euro area issuers of ILBs can choose between linking to a euro area or a national price index. We theoretically show that bonds linked to euro area inflation are less useful for diversification purposes than nationally ILBs. We also show that bonds linked to national price indices are imperfect hedges for national inflation. The latter finding is counterintuitive and arises because of monetary union. Our findings suggest that euro area governments may better service international investors with ILBs linked to their national price indices.     

可转换债券融资对我国上市公司价值的影响研究

可转换债券兼有股权融资和债权融资的两种效用,通常会促使投资者对转股时机与转股数量有不同的决策,这些决策对发行可转换债券的公司价值有不同影响。文章通过建立影响公司价值的分析模型,探讨我国上市公司发行可转换债券对公司价值所产生的影响,并利用我国上市公司1998年至2014年期间发行可转换债券的样本数据进行实证分析。研究发现：上市公司进行可转换债券融资后,公司价值会因其偿债能力变化而下降;国有股权比例之于公司价值的影响,是通过影响公司经理人经营行为来实现的;成长性不同的公司在债券存续期内的公司价值变化,并不存在显著差异。文章基于委托代理角度对可转换债券影响我国上市公司价值展开研究,在一定程度和范围内拓宽了公司治理问题的分析空间。     

地方公债制度的引入与风险防范

在我国经济发展放缓的背景下,中央提出实行积极的财政政策。引入地方公债制度是我国推行积极财政政策的一个可行选择,然而,它的引入会带来一些潜在的风险。因此,我国地方公债的制度安排必须以债务风险控制为核心,遵循行政监管与市场化发行相结合的原则,建立健全政府信息公开制度,完善政府投融资体制和投资决策责任制,这也是建立风险防范机制的主要内容。     

2008全球金融危机及其启示

2008年的金融危机对全球的金融市场乃至实体经济的影响越来越大,文章从形成金融危机的金融衍生产品、相关机构的作用、政府的救助措施等方面分析金融危机的原因及影响,并探讨了这次危机的教训和启示。文章认为要防范金融风险必须从提高透明度出发加强监管,金融创新应该切合实体经济的需求,同时要强化个人的责任追究机制。