公司债信用价差影响因素的实证研究

文章实证研究了33家公司债券条款、公司债券标的资产以及公司债发行时的宏观经济环境对公司债券信用价差的影响。研究结果表明:债券的期限、债券的信用评级和债券发行公司的长期负债能力与公司债券的信用价差呈负相关关系,债券的票面利率与公司债券的信用价差呈正相关关系,而债券发行公司的短期负债能力和发行时宏观经济环境对公司债券信用价差没有显著的影响。     

Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk, using average multiple figures over the period 1997–2017. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is important, since about 50% of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market is currently exposed to Atlantic hurricanes -a risk that global warming, among other disruptions, is found to enhance- and pension and mutual funds in European and other OECD countries currently own about 30% of the market. In this respect, while our findings suggest that falling multiples are primarily related to the Fed's expansionary monetary stance and to portfolio shift effects, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of global warming risk in the cat bonds market. This finding, also in light of the unfailing appetite of institutional investors for such securities, casts doubts over the sanity of the market and over cat bonds as suitable investment products for risk averse investors. Sounder investment opportunities might be found in the green bonds market, which allows for the funding of immediate investment in climate change mitigation too.     

The sources of momentum in international government bond returns

This study aims to offer a new explanation for the momentum effect in international government bonds. Using cross-sectional and time-series tests, we examine a sample of bonds from 22 countries for the years 1980 through 2018. We document significant momentum profits that are not attributable to bond-specific risk factors, such as volatility or credit risk. The global bond momentum is driven by the returns on underlying foreign exchange rates. Controlling for currency movements fully explains the abnormal returns on momentum strategies in international government bonds. The results are robust to many considerations including alternative sorting periods, portfolio construction methods, as well as subperiod and subsample analysis.     

我国国债的最大可能发行空间估算与预测

根据资产选择理论,国债的发行取决于国债利率和居民对国债资产需求的大小。目前,预防性储蓄存款是制约我国国债需求的关键因素,因此,以往反映居民应债能力的指标需重新考察。采用ARIMA模型对我国国债潜在需求能力进行估算和预测,结果表明,我国国债规模已经接近国债的潜在需求能力,国债实际发行空间不容乐观。由于我国当前社会保障体系尚不完善,居民储蓄中用于养老、医疗、教育等预防性储蓄的比重仍然较高;因此,完善社会保障体系,释放预防性储蓄存款是增大国债可发行空间的重要途径之一。     

分散保险风险的资本市场创新工具

本文提出并设计出一种全新的金融产品———保险金融券 ,这种保险金融券具有固定收益证券的性质 ,同时又与保险公司的风险挂钩。它能将保险公司的风险有效地分散到资本市场上 ,从而增加保险市场的容量 ,提高保险公司的竞争力。同时又为资本市场的投资者提供了更多的投资品种。本文运用国外最前沿的理论成果 ,结合中国的实际情况 ,对保险金融券进行了定价 ,同时对保险金融券的发行、收益等方面进行了详细的论述。     

地方政府债券违约风险形成机制及防范——基于委托代理问题的分析

就地方政府债券而言,在地方政府和居民之间涉及两类委托代理问题:债权债务的代理问题和公共政策的代理问题。地方政府依凭中央政府的"父爱心理",具有向上转移债务的动机,导致地方政府债券规模人为扩大;地方政府"经济人"特性促使其有意识地运用公共债务追求自身利益而罔顾公共财政风险。这些都隐藏着潜在风险无限增加的可能性。可以从建立相应的法律法规制度、居民退出机制、地方政府内在约束机制、事前制约机制、事后监督机制以及深化政务公开制度来防范信用风险。     

上市公司可转债发行动机分析——基于控制权收益视角的实证研究

为了探讨股东控制权收益对上市公司可转债融资行为的影响,本文以2006-2011年我国发行可转债上市公司和增发上市公司为研究样本,运用logistic回归分析方法分析所选变量对可转债发行动机的影响。研究发现:第一大股东持股比例、每股净资产和每股收益三大指标分别与是否发行可转债显著正相关。     

Pricing effects in Fannie Mae agency bonds

As a government-sponsored enterprise, Fannie Mae enjoys certain advantages over other firms. The extent of these advantages, while widely discussed, have not yet been fully quantified. This paper empirically examines the returns to Fannie Mae general obligation bonds under the assumptions of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. The model provides an explicit method for estimating the risk premium on Fannie Mae bonds. The results indicate that liquidity and tax effects are important in explaining the returns to Fannie Mae bonds. The results also indicate that the market does not incorporate changes in the riskiness of the mortgage market into the returns on Fannie Mae bonds. The results provide support for the contention that Fannie Mae, as a government sponsored enterprise, enjoys a significant advantage over other firms in the capital market.     

试论上市银行补充资本金的意义和形式

在银行同业竞争中,资本金的高低在很大程度上影响了银行的整体竞争力.本文分析了国际商业银行资本金的现状,对比我国5家上市银行目前的资本金状况,认为资本金不足及资本结构不合理是当前上市银行发展面临的一个现实问题,并进一步分析了我国上市银行补充资本金的意义和形式.作者借鉴国外主要商业银行补充资本金的经验,考察了两种补充资本金的形式,结论是:虽然内涵式补充资本金是一种有增长潜力、重要的形式,但是至少在目前来说它不可能是一种最重要的形式;外延式补充资本金,特别是通过发行次级债券和发行可转债这两种方式则具有现实的可操作性.