我国商业银行发行次级债券的风险分析

文章认为,次级债券的发行有利于商业银行快速补充资本、提高资本充足率,但是大量次级债券的发行也可能存在一定的风险,如对发行者而言,可能加大银行的长期财务成本、造成银行业整体资本量虚增、影响商业银行的长期稳健发展;对投资者而言,可能因购买者对次级债券认识不够或商业银行互持次级债券而形成风险;次级债券的发行还可能对货币政策的执行产生不利影响。     

社会保障基金如何投资于货币市场基金

文章分析了银行定期存款、购买国债、购买货币市场基金三种短期投资方式相对于社会保障基金来说的利与弊，得出社会保障基金应当适当多地购买货币市场基金的结论。     

Modelling the Credit Spreads and Long–Term Relationships of Thai Yankee Bond Issues

The present study investigates the yield spread between Thai government bonds issued in the US domestic market ('Yankee' bonds) and US Treasury bonds, to determine the long–term equilibrium dynamics and the factors that affect changes in credit spreads. The sample period investigated was from May 5, 1999 to March 26, 2002. The results suggest that the long–term equilibrium relationship holds only between Thai Yankee bonds and long–term US bonds, rather than shorter or equivalent maturity bonds. Also, changes in the credit spreads of Thai Yankee bonds are generally negatively related to changes in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index (see http://www.set.or.th/th/index.html). Changes in US Treasury bonds also tend to negatively affect spreads on short Thai Yankee bonds and positively affect spreads on long Thai Yankee bonds, although other macroeconomic factors – including exchange rate and capital flow variables – were generally not important.     

关于建立我国地方政府债券市场的可行性研究

本文通过对美国、日本发行地方公债的经验分析,阐述了我国发行地方政府债券的必要性和可行性,并提出了我国地方政府债券的发行规则和操作方法。     

The Effects of Corporate Social Performance on the Cost of Corporate Debt and Credit Ratings

This study investigates the differential impact that various dimensions of corporate social performance have on the pricing of corporate debt as well as the assessment of the credit quality of specific bond issues. The empirical analysis, based on an extensive longitudinal data set, suggests that overall, good performance is rewarded and corporate social transgressions are penalized through lower and higher corporate bond yield spreads, respectively. Similar conclusions can be drawn when focusing on either the bond rating assigned to a specific debt issue or the probability of it being considered to be an asset of speculative grade.     

The association of departures from spending rate equilibrium to municipal borrowing cost

The U.S. municipal bond market has grown dramatically in recent decades. Debt financing has become a more important source of capital for municipalities, yet research into the association of fiscal management and borrowing cost has not been directly addressed since before GASB's formation in 1984. We attempt to fill this void and contribute to the dialog concerning municipal managerial competence and its association with borrowing cost by studying a sample of 3285 county general obligation bonds over a 13-year period. We resolve conflicting and counterintuitive results in prior work and demonstrate that the lowest borrowing cost is achieved where general fund revenues equal general fund expenditures (i.e., equilibrium spending rate). Further, we find that the association between spending rate and borrowing cost is nonmonotonic, nonlinear, and asymmetric. We demonstrate that maintenance of a spending rate equilibrium point may be a way of achieving minimum borrowing cost. In the context of fiscal constraints and the increased reliance on credit markets by municipalities, managing to the spending rate equilibrium may reduce the borrowing costs of providing municipal services.     

Twenty years of jumps in commodity markets

In this article, we provide statistical evidence around jumps affecting commodity returns. Using nearly 20 years of daily data, we use Laurent, Lecourt, and Palm's (2011) methodology to jump extraction, and discuss various aspects of the estimated jump activity. On average across various commodity markets, we find a high number of days for which returns exhibit the presence of jumps, consistently with the intuition that commodities are affected by large price fluctuations. We emphasize that the post-jump average return depends on the commodity sector considered (e.g. agriculture, energy, or metals). We also show evidence of a jump-to-volatility channel for commodities (similar to the effect usually found for equities). Finally, we diagnose around 40 dates during which commodity indices, stocks, bonds and currencies `co-jump’, revealing a tail dependence between standard and alternative assets.     

Public Subsidy and Private Divestment: The Lancashire Cotton Textile Industry,c.1950–c.1965

The investment and divestment policies of Lancashire cotton companies are examined by reference to historical financial and other archival data. Capital/product market and political/institutional constraints on entrepreneurial behaviour are evaluated. Lancashire entrepreneurs were faced with a legacy of over-capacity and a market situation that individual decisions could do little to later. Political constraints, especially in the form of taxation and regulation of overseas trade, had important influences on investment behaviour. Divisions within the Lancashire lobby weakened its political influence prior to 1959. Dividend policy and the constraint on corporate cash flow imposed by the capital markets also helped to limit the effectiveness of restructuring investments. Partial solutions from the British government could not prevent the total demise of what remained of an important regional industry.     

Typology for flight-to-quality episodes and downside risk measurement

We propose a total return-based framework to measure downside risk associated with phenomenon of capital outflows from riskier to safer financial markets. The proposed method consists of three elements: (i) the general definition of the flight-to-quality (FtQ) phenomenon, (ii) the typological classification of the flight-to-quality occurrences for associating them with the phases of the business cycle and (iii) the automated technique to diagnose the time frames and to measure the impact of flight-to-quality on financial instruments. The proposed framework is applied to analyse the global-scale capital inflows/outflows from emerging markets public debt to the US Treasuries and vice versa. The results show that different phases of business cycles and GDP growth rates, including turning points, could be associated with flights-to-quality of different types and causality origins. Addressing downside risk crystallizations in flight-to-quality occurrences, new perspectives of integrated interest rate risk and credit risk management are discussed. For strengthening financial stability, we suggest the use of flight-to-quality windows as scenarios for stress testing, both for banks and financial institutions.