制度约束、利益博弈与农村信用社改革

我国农信社体制的变迁与发展，是数十年来各种社会经济问题的集中反映，也是制度约束的必然结果．由此构成了中国农村信用社体制改革问题的艰巨性与复杂性。从利益博弈的角度分析，每一轮农信社体制的改革都将引发一场利益关系的博弈，博弈的均衡点就是此轮改革的结局。希望在农村信用社改革的框架之内解决农村金融服务体系的全部或大部分问题是不切实际的。     

中国国有银行的资本金谜团

本文旨在考察中国国有银行资本金谜团的由来 ,并为破解该谜团提供一种可能的视角。本文的讨论表明 ,国有银行之所以能在真实资本极少得到补充且不良贷款比率居高不下的情况下保持稳定 ,是因为国家与居民在中国特殊的改革背景下建立起了一种奇妙的资本联盟。由于在这种联盟中 ,国家以声誉入股且具有不可分性 ,因此 ,中国国有银行改革的可行方式是谋求改变资产结构 ,而不是试图重组资本结构。     

商业银行危机与房地产泡沫破裂临界值的研究

本文从房地产泡沫破裂会对商业银行贷款产生风险的角度出发,首次提出了房地产泡沫破裂临界值的概念,并且用数理形式给出了定义,分析了影响临界值大小的因素,论述了临界值和贷款风险的关系;另外,参照其它国家和地区的房地产泡沫情况,对我国的房地产泡沫大小及可能的破裂速度给出了估计,计算了泡沫破裂临界值。     

Congestion effects in a public-good economy

This paper considers a public-good economy with congestion, where participants jointly produce a public good from input of a private good. This economic model gives rise to a transferable-utility game, the profit game, that depends on consumer preferences and a congestion parameter. The simplicity of the game allows the maximum level of congestion that guarantees the nonemptiness of the core of the economy to be determined. It is known that the sustainability of the Lindahl equilibrium in the core of the economy depends on the distribution of profits. In this paper two distributions of profits are compared: the Lindahl solution and the marginal-contribution solution. The latter is more often in the core than the Lindahl solution which in turn Lorenz-dominates the marginal-contribution solution.     

基金代销:中小商业银行如何分得一杯羹

最近一年多来,我国基金业发展势头强劲,引起了社会各界的广泛关注与参与;正因如此,也使得基金代销机构之间的竞争日趋激烈.作为后来者的中小商业银行在基金代销上如何与传统的大银行与券商之间展开竞争,并获得一席之地,正是本文进行探讨的问题.作者认为:中小商业银行在基金代销方面大有可为.     

我国商业银行营销渠道的选择

商业银行营销渠道的选择是一项重要的战略决策，它会极大地影响其经营业绩和成本水平。目前，我国商业银行的营销渠道还比较狭窄，基层网点功能单一，服务手段落后。今后，商业银行要根据目标市场客户的需求，积极开发新的金融产品，大力整合、开发和拓宽营销渠道。     

Information Content of Earnings and Earnings Components of Commercial Banks: Impact of SFAS No. 115

SFAS No. 115 modified classification of debt and equity securities held by firms and also modified the reporting format for unrealised gains/losses on security transactions (URGL). This study investigates whether implementation of SFAS No. 115 improved information content of earnings and earnings components of commercial banks. Improvement in the information content is measured by comparing the association between equity returns and earnings and earnings components of the post-adoption period of SFAS No. 115 with the pre-adoption period.The test results indicate that the association of equity returns with earnings components and aggregate earnings is significantly stronger in the post-adoption period compared to the pre-adoption period. The improvement is especially evident for the components of URGL and non-interest revenues. These results suggest that information provided by earnings components is considered more value relevant for investment decision after implementation of SFAS No. 115. Findings on non-interest revenues indicate that revenues from banking activities other than lending also play an important role in the commercial banks' profitability.     

Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks

Although credit risk is an important factor that financial institutions must cope with, the determinants of bank problem loans have been little studied. Using panel data, we compare the determinants of problem loans of Spanish commercial and savings banks in the period 1985–1997, taking into account both macroeconomic and individual bank level variables. The GDP growth rate, firms, and family indebtedness, rapid past credit or branch expansion, inefficiency, portfolio composition, size, net interest margin, capital ratio, and market power are variables that explain credit risk. However, there are significant differences between commercial and savings banks, which confirm the relevance of the institutional form in the management of credit risk. Our findings raise important bank supervisory policy issues: the use of bank level variables as early warning indicators, the advantages of bank mergers from different regions, and the role of banking competition and ownership in determining credit risk.     

金融全球化与金融风险

中国入世标志着中国经济已开始融入世界经济体系之中 ,而在经济全球化进程中伴随着金融全球化的大趋势 ,金融全球化对各国经济和金融体系既是机遇 ,也加大了风险 ,在金融全球化的环境下中国银行体系中存在的大量不良贷款和远不能满足巴塞尔协议要求的资本充足率 ,使中国银行业存在现实和隐含的金融风险。中国的商业银行和金融监管当局必须采取有力的对策来应对挑战     

四大国有商业银行的收缩战略研究——从规模经济的角度探讨银行实施收缩战略的必要性

在不断出现的全球银行业并购案例中 ,人们往往只重视对商业银行的扩张战略进行研究 ,但是收缩战略在当今的银行业中同样发挥着重要的作用。本文首先通过对银行业的背景和银行适度规模的分析 ,探讨商业银行实施收缩战略的原因 ,然后从实证的角度对我国国有商业银行的规模及其效益进行分析 ,证明实施收缩战略的必要性。文章最后针对我国的现实情况 ,提出实施收缩战略的两点具体措施。