寒地城市公园春季休闲体力活动水平与微气候热舒适关联研究

如何营造舒适的微气候环境，激发市民休闲体力活动意愿，成为提高寒地城市公园公共健康效能的重要课题。在探讨休闲体力活动水平与微气候热舒适关联性、关联特征基础上，利用线性回归揭示各因子关联机理，并结合散点图划定微气候因子适宜值区间。研究结果表明：1)休闲体力活动时长、代谢量与热舒适呈线性关联，活动人次及强度类型与热舒适呈时段性、滞后性和非线性关联；2)非舒适的微气候环境下，主观意愿及社交需求提高活动主体7.5℃的对抗强度；3)太阳辐射、风速与休闲体力活动水平存在显著关联机理；4)低温、通风的微气候特征可有效增加低、中等强度活动人次，延长活动时长，低风、低湿、高日照有利于诱发中等以上强度活动发生，旨在为营造微气候适宜性的休闲体力活动空间提供数据支持，推动“健康中国”国策的实施。     

利益相关者理论下企业绩效评价指标体系的构建

本文以利益相关者理论为理论基础，站在可持续发展战略高度上，构建了以利益相关者利益最大化为导向的，从财权绩效、人才绩效、联盟绩效、相关绩效、社会环境绩效和其他绩效六大方面十九个利益相关者内在层面入手的，多维的注重企业协调发展的综合性企业绩效评价体系。     

贵州与东盟双边贸易和贵州GDP增长的相关性分析

近几年贵州与东盟双边贸易一直呈上升趋势.回归分析得出贵州与东盟双边贸易和贵州GDP两者之间存在明显的相关性.贵州要充分利用中国-东盟自由贸易区建立带来的契机,发挥相对区位优势并协调区际经济关系,以进一步推动贵州GDP增长.     

Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments

This paper analyzes rates of return on financial assets denominated in five major currencies and provides a framework for the determination of optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments. Three models are estimated: a univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, an extended ARCH model using the random coefficient (RC) procedure, and a pure RC model. A comparison of the forecasts of these models with those generated by a random walk model demonstrates that forecasts based on the RC/extended ARCH procedure are superior to those based on the random walk model and those based on direct ARCH estimation. These results could be useful for both international investors for the allocation of their wealth among fixed-income investment securities and central banks for the management of their external reserve assets.     

我国证券市场风险现状分析

中国证券市场的风险不仅仅体现在市场的强烈投机气氛,也体现在市场价格的泡沫成份和证券经营机构的资产恶化。与此同时,市场信任危机的蔓延正威胁着中国证券市场的制度基础。     

The t Copula and Related Copulas

The t copula and its properties are described with a focus on issues related to the dependence of extreme values. The Gaussian mixture representation of a multivariate t distribution is used as a starting point to construct two new copulas, the skewed t copula and the grouped t copula, which allow more heterogeneity in the modelling of dependent observations. Extreme value considerations are used to derive two further new copulas: the t extreme value copula is the limiting copula of componentwise maxima of t distributed random vectors; the t lower tail copula is the limiting copula of bivariate observations from a t distribution that are conditioned to lie below some joint threshold that is progressively lowered. Both these copulas may be approximated for practical purposes by simpler, better-known copulas, these being the Gumbel and Clayton copulas respectively.     

A structural analysis of the correlated random coefficient wage regression model

We estimate a dynamic programming model of schooling decisions in which the log wage regression function is set within a correlated random coefficient model. We show that estimates of the dynamic programming model can be used to obtain a number of treatment effects, including the local average treatment effect (LATE). However, unlike LATE parameters obtained in a standard IV framework, our LATE estimates are obtained without imposing separability between individual specific heterogeneity and schooling choices and are therefore not subject to a “monotonicity” restriction. We find that returns to schooling are characterized by a high degree of dispersion across individuals.     

区域经济差异的比较分析与协调发展的政策选择——基于长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和海峡西岸经济区的实证研究

区域经济差异是改革开放以来我国经济和社会发展中备受学术界、政府和广大民众关注的一个重大问题。区域经济发展不平衡的失控是威胁社会和谐及协调发展的重要障碍。深入分析长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和海峡西岸经济区经济发展的差异,对加快三大经济区之间的协调发展,壮大区域经济实力具有重要的参考价值。本文首先运用衡量经济发展水平的相关指标和经济区位商来比较分析三大经济区的经济差异,在实证研究的基础上,依据分形理论中的R/S分析法预测区域经济差异的发展趋势;其次,从历史经济联系、区位条件等方面来比较分析形成三大经济区经济差异的影响因素;最后,选择了协调发展这个论题,来探讨推进三大经济区协调发展的政策选择,从而缩小它们之间的经济发展差异。     

A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment

In this paper, we suggest a first-passage-time model which can explain default probability and default correlation dynamics under stochastic market environment. We add a Markov regime-switching market condition to the first-passage-time model of Zhou [Zhou, C., 2001. An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults. Review of Financial Studies 14, 555–576]. Using this model, we try to explain various relationship between default probability, default correlation, and market condition. We also suggest a valuation method for credit default swap (CDS) with (or without) counterparty default risk (CDR) and basket default swap under this model.Our numerical results provide us with several meaningful implications. First, default swap spread is higher in economic recession than in economic expansion across default swap maturity. Second, as the difference of asset return volatility between under bear market and under bull market increases, CDS spread increases regardless of maturity. Third, the bigger the intensity shifting from bull market to bear market, the higher the spread for both CDS without CDR and basket default swap.     

基于粗糙集的轨道交通换乘枢纽灰色聚类评价

评价轨道交通换乘枢纽的布局优劣、运营状况、服务水平,进而优化规划方案,给出5项评价指标,运用基于粗糙集理论的权系数确定方法,建立关系数据模型,通过计算灰色聚类分析模型的权系数的方法对轨道交通换乘枢纽进行评价,并结合实例说明方法的可行性。