全程机械化:新疆棉花产业发展的必然选择 ———以新疆博乐市达勒特镇呼热布呼村为例

新疆是我国最大的优质棉生产基地,目前初步形成了"世界棉花形势看中国,中国棉花市场看新"的格局,对保障国家棉花产业安全,促进新疆农业增效、农民增收和经济社会稳定发挥了重要作用。 近疆年来,新疆棉花生产成本不断上涨、国内外棉花价差巨大,棉农生产积极性急剧下降,国家棉花安全和棉农收益受到严重影响。发展计划司带队赴新疆博乐市达勒特镇呼热布呼村就"新疆棉花产业现代化道路该如何走"等相关问题进行调研。通过调研,调研组认为实现棉花生产全程机械化是降低棉花生产成本、实现棉花产业现代化、巩固新疆棉花产业优势地位的必然选择。呼热布呼村闯出了新路,主要通过以棉田改造为基础,推进棉花标准化种植、以机械采棉为突破口,推进棉花生产全程机械化、以技术推广服务为支撑,推进棉花社会化服务体系建设等5方面,实现棉花生产全程机械化、促进棉花产业现代化积累了经验。同时也分析了制约新疆棉花生产全程机械化的 5个重点环节,提出了进一步推进棉田改造、加强适应棉花机械化集成技术和品种研究、加大技术推广和培训力度等5方面来推进新疆棉花生产全程机械化的对策措施。     

开放条件下我国棉花产业安全问题及发展策略

[目的]研究在开放条件下,如何合理利用国内国外两个市场和两种资源,保障国内棉花产业安全。[方法]立足我国棉花产业发展现状,从生产、消费、贸易、价值链等各方面对国内外棉花产业发展进行比较,总结我国棉花产业面临的挑战和存在的问题,提出促进棉花产业可持续发展的对策建议。[结果]加入WTO以来,我国棉花单产水平和生产能力不断提高,全方位支持体系日益完善,市场配置资源效率逐步增强,并且深度融合全球纺织品产业链。但发展过程中存在着生产区域高度集中和产不足需并存的局面,生产成本高企压缩棉农收益,质量仍是制约产品竞争力的核心问题,外贸依存度高增加贸易风险,棉纺织产业处于全球价值链低端。[结论]从完善支持政策、提高产品质量、提升机械化水平、整合资源和市场等4个方面着眼,提出保障我国棉花产业安全,促进产业可持续发展的对策建议。     

环氧氯丙烷对棉织物的接枝改性研究

探讨了环氧氯丙烷对棉织物接枝改性的原理,通过实验分析了环氧氯丙烷对棉织物接枝的影响因素,测试了棉织物接枝前后的接枝率、强力和白度,结果表明：环氧氯丙烷与棉织物发生接枝反应后,重量增加,将接枝前后棉织物采用双氧水漂白,已接枝已漂白棉织物白度最高,同时接枝后其强力有所下降。     

河南省2012年度进口棉花质量分析

近年来河南省棉花进口量大增,2012年棉花进口量达到创纪录的近10万吨,有效缓解了省内供需矛盾。论文介绍了河南省进口棉花的品质、重量检验情况,分析了主要进口国和主要国外供货商进口棉花质量状况及存在的问题,并提出加强培训、规范包装、统一检测周期、创新检验监管模式等工作建议。     

US–Brazilian cotton policies

Brazil filed a lawsuit with the WTO against the United States for providing cotton production and export subsidies, and the WTO ruled in favour of Brazil. Brazil threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs if the United States does not comply with the WTO rulings. After a prolonged litigation stretching from 2002 to 2010, both countries agreed to a negotiated settlement wherein the United States paid Brazilian cotton producers to compensate for any adverse effects. This study develops a political economic model to theoretically analyse US cotton policies, Brazil's threat of retaliatory tariffs and the negotiated settlement between the two countries. The theoretical results show that the volume of cotton output, supply price response, politicians' apathy for the public welfare, elasticities of excess supply/demand and the magnitude of US transfers play a crucial role in determining US policies. This study contributes to the literature by being the first to model political economic aspects of the complex system of trade and domestic policies in the cotton industry using a three-country framework, tariff retaliation and transfers between the countries.     

中国农产品期货主力及近月合约套期保值效果研究

主力合约和近月合约的偏离是中国期货市场特有的现实问题,它在一定程度上阻碍对中国期货市场功能的发挥。文章以ZCE棉花和DCE豆一期货为代表对中国农产品期货市场进行研究,研究发现,中国ZCE棉花和DCE豆一期货的近月合约套期保值效果明显优于主力合约套期保值效果,但均远远低于发达期货市场的套期保值效果。根据研究结果,本研究结合实际提出几个有针对性的措施,以利于中国农产品期货功能的发挥。     

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.     

新疆棉花生产时空变动的耕地利用效应分解

［目的］从耕地利用效应的角度,科学认识耕地利用对新疆棉花生产时空变动的作用。［方法］运用LMDI和空间转移指数法,对1999—2017年新疆棉花生产时空变动进行测算。［结果］1999—2017年耕地利用对新疆棉花生产变动作用由大到小排序为：强度效应>结构效应>规模效应>程度效应; 流通体制改革后到加入WTO以前起主导作用的是程度效应,加入WTO以后到临时收储政策以前起主导作用的是结构效应,临时收储政策阶段和目标价格补贴阶段起主导作用的是强度效应; 新疆12个地州（市）棉花生产转出区为吐鲁番地区和和田地区,其他地州均为转入区; 克拉玛依市、吐鲁番市、哈密市、昌吉回族自治州、伊犁州直属县（市）、塔城地区为结构效应驱动; 博尔塔拉蒙古自治州、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州、阿克苏地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州、喀什地区、和田地区为强度效应驱动。［结论］流通体制改革以后新疆棉花生产主要驱动力为单位面积产量的提高,不同阶段各分解效应的对棉花生产变化的影响存在一定的差异性; 不同地州的棉花生产时空变化的驱动效应存在一定的差异性。     

Is Bt Cotton a Pro‐Poor Technology? A Review and Critique of the Empirical Record

Policy makers, journalists and other commentators have hailed genetically modified (GM) crops as a ‘pro‐poor’ success in the developing world. Their confidence appears to be justified by the encouraging conclusions reached by academic studies on the performance and impacts of GM crops, which seem to provide convincing evidence of substantial benefits for smallholders in developing countries. However, a detailed, critical examination of studies on transgenic, insect‐resistant cotton in China, India and South Africa demonstrates that the technology's impacts have been evaluated and represented in selective and misleading ways. The performance and impacts of GM crops have in fact been highly variable, socio‐economically differentiated and contingent on a range of agronomic, socio‐economic and institutional factors. The shortcomings of the GM crop‐impacts literature have done a disservice to public and policy debates about GM crops in international development and impeded the development of sound, evidence‐based policy.     

An analysis of industrial–agricultural interactions: a case study in Pakistan

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Pakistan's industrial and agricultural sectors. Pakistan was chosen because of its status of a semi‐industrialized country with heavy dependence on the agricultural sector. The relationship between cotton production and industrial growth is also evaluated due to the prominence of this crop in Pakistani agriculture. The results indicate that these sectors are complementary, yet industry tends to benefit more from agricultural growth than vice versa. The timing of this information is critical, as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural policy reforms in their quest for continued industrial development.