货币供给、信贷规模、外汇汇率与房价波动的联动机制研究--基于VAR模型的实证分析

投资性需求是推动我国房价非理性上扬的重要原因。高房价的背后无疑是大量国内外资金涌入我国的房地产市场进行资本逐利,而此股资金流动性强弱、规模大小是我国宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策的具体体现。文章基于VAR模型研究,发现我国货币供应规模、信贷规模以及外汇汇率与我国房价波动存在联动效应,通过方差分解方法分析货币供应、贷款规模以及外汇汇率对房价波动的贡献程度,可找到调节我国房价新的着力点。     

广义虚拟经济视角下社会信用环境的相似度测算研究--基于2005～2012年中美德日的样本

研究广义虚拟经济视角下社会信用环境的相似度问题。分析了社会信用环境的特征,提出了社会信用环境相似度测算的影响因素,建立了15个相似度测算指标;基于中国、美国、日本和德国等国家相似度指标的时间序列数据,运用面板灰色关联度思想,进行了社会信用环境相似度测算和比较,为广义虚拟经济视角下的社会信用体系建设提供了借鉴作用。     

供应链融资与完善中小企业信用评价指标体系

针对传统信用评价指标体系的不足,建议一方面从供应链融资整体或核心企业入手,对其信用进行评价;另一方面,从供应链融资内部企业的相互关联入手,运用订货量、产品竞争力、协调性和合作效率等指标,用以完善供应链融资中的中小企业信用评价指标体系,使该评价体系更加符合实际,以有效破解中小企业融资难问题。     

关于规范外贸公司出口业务操作的思考——基于对一起外贸纠纷案的分析

出口贸易涉及的业务环节较多,操作程序复杂,其中任何一个环节、一个程序中的不规范都可能埋藏着潜在的外贸风险。因此,按照出口贸易业务流程与国际惯例的规则要求进行出口操作至关重要。通过对一起外贸纠纷案例进行深入分析,探讨外贸公司在出口业务中的不规范操作问题,在此基础上提出相应的合理建议。     

网络游戏消费者行为的品牌经济分析——基于对“偷菜”游戏的分析

网络游戏偷菜在短时间内迅速流行,广大网民对其趋之若鹜。本文从品牌经济学角度分析网络游戏偷菜快速流行的内在原因,找到其目标顾客,构建需求和消费者行为模型,论证其品牌的内在驱动力,最后通过品牌持续度模型,证明该游戏品牌会持久存在。     

The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece

This article finds evidence of significant reversals in returns over the medium term in Greek stocks. In contrast with previous research, return reversals are more pronounced for past winners, suggesting that the market overreacts to a greater extent to good news. These contrarian returns are particularly elevated when portfolios are formed using quartiles and during tranquil and bull markets. The optimum contrarian strategy involves skipping the first 6 months of the holding period and implementing the contrarian strategy for a period of 18 months, as returns exhibit continuation followed by reversal. The profitability of the contrarian investment strategy is robust to adjustments for risk and seasonalities. It is the tranquil times and not the crisis/volatile times that generates a significant and profitable contrarian strategy. The recent credit crisis and resulting stock market falls, resulted in extreme movements in some Greek stocks and testing of the contrarian strategy problematic, especially when portfolios are decile ordered. Our findings also highlight the importance of survivorship bias and also suggest that contrarian strategies that just use market beta may be ill-equipped to take into consider extreme market movements, illiquidity and short-sales constraints.     

Exploring the link between household debt and income inequality: an asymmetric approach

We investigate the relationship between household debt and income inequality in the USA, allowing for asymmetry, using data over the period 1913–2008. We find evidence of an asymmetric cointegration between household debt and inequality for different regimes. Our results indicate household debt only responds to positive changes in income inequality, while there is no evidence of falling inequality significantly affecting household debt. The presence of this asymmetry provides further empirical insights into the emerging literature on household debt and inequality.     

Interbank Relationships and the Credit Channel in Germany

A crucial condition for the existence of a credit channel through bank loansis that monetary policy should be able to change bank loan supply. This papercontributes to the discussion on this issue by presenting empirical evidence fromdynamic panel estimations based on a dataset that comprises individual balancesheet information on all German banks. It shows that the average bank reduces itslending more sharply in reaction to a restrictive monetary policy measure the lowerits ratio of short-term interbank deposits to total assets. A dependence on its size canonly be found if explicitly controlled for this dominating effect. Overall, the evidenceis compatible with the existence of a credit channel but the results indicate that it is weakened by the network structures that exist in the German banking system.     

行业信用风险分析框架及其在煤炭行业中的应用

从行业偿债来源入手,从债务安全性的角度探讨行业的信用风险水平,力图针对行业偿付现有债务以及未来债务的能力给出量化的分析。提出了信用评级视角的行业信用风险分析方法框架,采用该分析框架对我国煤炭采选行业进行了行业信用风险评价。结果表明,该框架的分析结论与煤炭行业在债券市场的实际表现互为印证。     

信贷约束、再分配及不平等对增长的影响

当信贷对那些禀赋较少的当事人是完全可获取时,再分配对长期增长无影响.当信贷不可得时,再分配可以促进经济增长.富人与穷人之间的不平等程度越高,越容易刺激穷人掠夺富人的财富,并牺牲了总的投资与增长.恰当的再分配政策设计可以有利于禀赋少者并促进总的产出,并使社会朝着增长与和谐的方向努力.