Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons

Despite an extensive body of research, the best way to model the dependence of exchange rates remains an open question. In this paper we present a new approach which employs a flexible time-varying copula model. It allows the conditional correlation between exchange rates to be both time-varying and modeled independently from the marginal distributions. We introduce a dynamic specification for the correlation using the Fisher transformation. Applied to Euro/US dollar and Japanese Yen/US dollar, our results reveal a significantly time-varying correlation, dependent on the past return realizations. We find that a time-varying copula with the proposed correlation specification gives better results than alternative dynamic benchmark models. The dynamic copula model outperforms at six different time horizons, ranging from hourly to daily, confirming the model specification.     

The effects of balanced and asymmetric dependence on supplier satisfaction: Identifying positive effects of dependency

Studies argue that balance in dependence is critical to supplier satisfaction in buyer-supplier relationships. We examine whether asymmetric relationships can also lead to supplier satisfaction, arguing that traditional analysis methods are unsuitable for thoroughly analyzing this issue. With polynomial regression and response surface analysis combined with dyadic data, we test the relationship between (1) balanced dependence (i.e., the buyer and supplier are equally dependent on each other) and supplier satisfaction and (2) asymmetric dependence (i.e., either the supplier or buyer is the dominant party) on supplier satisfaction. The results indicate that mutual dependence is positively related to supplier satisfaction, but surprisingly, asymmetric dependence can be related to higher levels of supplier satisfaction.     

The changing rationale for governance choices: Early vs. late adopters of global services sourcing

Research Summary: This article studies how the logic of firm governance choices varies as a function of the time of adoption of particular sourcing practices. Using data on the diffusion of global business services sourcing as a management practice from early experiments in the 1980s through 2011, we show that the extent to which governance choices are affected by process commoditization, availability of external service capabilities, and past governance choices depends on whether firms are early or late adopters. Findings inform research on governance choice dynamics specifically in highly diverse and evolving firm populations. Managerial Summary: This article considers how firms have chosen delivery models in global services sourcing decisions over time. Based on comprehensive data, we make two major observations. First, we find that firms that began with global services sourcing early, invested mainly in their internal sourcing capacity, while outsourcing only simple tasks to external providers, whereas firms that started later invested more in their capability to outsource various services to increasingly sophisticated suppliers. Second, we find that initial investments in internal or external sourcing capabilities have a strong effect on future choices of delivery models. This explains why, even today, firms vary greatly in how they implement global sourcing decisions, and it suggests that newcomers should learn from their own peer group rather than from highly experienced firms.     

Sustainable tourism and the management of nearshore coastal places: place attachment and disruption to surf-spots

Surfing, a dominant recreational activity in many coastal areas, is a primary driver of local and international tourism. Surf-spots, nearshore oceanic locations where waves break and surfing occurs, are essential community resources. Yet, many surf-spots are at risk of degradation from climate change and other factors. Knowing whether and why surfers consider surf-spots as meaningful places can inform sustainable management of these resources, benefitting the environment and users alike. This study examines place attachment and disruption in relation to surf-spots through an online survey of 1055 surfers in California, where surfing is an important recreational and touristic industry. Our findings suggest that surfers exhibit high fidelity to specific surf-spots and develop deep attachments to those spots, with the strength of the attachment varying depending on the type of surf-spot. Some respondents consider surf-spots to be “part of their family”; few respondents describe no attachments. We conclude that, despite being dynamic oceanic locations, surf-spots are meaningful places for surfers. This importance, combined with the value of surf-spots as resources driving coastal tourism and recreation, warrants systematic consideration of surf-spots as natural resources by managers, and suggests that user–place attachment should be better understood at surf-spots and other tourism sites.     

Inversion copulas from nonlinear state space models with an application to inflation forecasting

We propose the construction of copulas through the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These copulas allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure as a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution, and flexible density forecasts. We examine the time series properties of the copulas, outline serial dependence measures, and estimate the models using likelihood-based methods. Copulas constructed from three example state space models are considered: a stochastic volatility model with an unobserved component, a Markov switching autoregression, and a Gaussian linear unobserved component model. We show that all three inversion copulas with flexible margins improve the fit and density forecasts of quarterly U.S. broad inflation and electricity inflation.     

Patterns of world wheat trade, 1945–2010: The long hangover from the second food regime

Food regime analysis is concerned with interpreting possibilities and conflicts inherent to the 21st‐century food system in historical terms. This paper summarizes the theoretical discussion of the food regime method, and of the identification of different “food regime periods” throughout modern history. While it is widely accepted that the so‐called “second food regime” has already ended, there is much discussion on whether or not it is possible to talk about a more recent third food regime. This paper traces the evolution of the “wheat complex” over the “second food regime” (1947–1973) and over the next 45 years, and offers an explanation for the evolution of world wheat trade distribution, based on food regime analysis. Certain authors have claimed that the collapse of the WTO Doha round of negotiations may be understood as a “hangover” from the second food regime. Similarly, this paper argues that the increasing wheat dependence of poor and insecure countries over the past 40 years may be considered as a path dependence outcome of a process initiated during the second food regime.     

Agriculture,trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options

This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high‐, medium‐ and low‐income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the study employs three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group‐type linear panel models and one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross‐sectional dependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value‐added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails to track any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.     

‘Pull’ motivation: an activity-based typology of international visitors to New Zealand

Using the push and pull framework, this study examines the relationship between tourist activities in New Zealand and behaviours such as tourist spending, travel style (group vs. independent travel) and length of stay. Data from the International Visitor Survey were analysed for a 19-year period (1997–2015). The findings, based on 62,288 respondents, identified 9 typologies of international visitors over this period. For example, type one visitors are primarily pulled by the nature-based activities offered in New Zealand while type two is pulled by adventure activities. Some of the typologies have activities that overlap reflecting the needs of international visitors. Significant relationships were found between the nine typologies, tourist spending, travel style and length of stay. Implications for destination marketing purposes are highlighted.     

多巴胺D2受体基因多态性与酒依赖

酒依赖已成为严重的社会问题和医学问题。对酒依赖形成机制及治疗的研究一直是精神病学关注的热点,但其内在机理仍不十分清楚。文章主要就多巴胺D2受体基因多态性与酒依赖的关系进行综述。     

西部经济发展的主体空间依托及其重点区域

经济发展主体空间依托的选择是区域发展决策的核心内容之一。对我国西部所属主体功能区的研究表明,主体功能区格局下多中心一外围城市群落应是我国西部经济发展的主体空间依托,成渝双中心-外围城市群落、西兰双中心-外围城市群落、南贵昆三中心-外围城市群落、呼包银三中心-外围城市群落等是我国西部多中心-外围城市群落发展的重点区域。