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41.
Dorina Marghescu Peter Sarlin Shuhua Liu 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2010,17(3-4):143-165
Currency crises, also often called balance-of-payment crises, occur when massive capital outflows force a country to devalue or float its currency. The world-wide integration of capital markets since the 1980s and 1990s has increased the degree of capital mobility, which also determined a substantial turbulence in foreign exchange markets and frequent currency crises. In this paper, we explore advanced supporting instruments for predicting currency crises, based on an empirical study of the currency crisis episodes in 23 emerging markets around the world during the second half of last century. More specifically, we investigate the usefulness of prediction models built based on the fuzzy c-means method. First we build clustering models that partition data into a certain number of overlapping natural groups. Thereafter, we classify the data clusters into early-warning clusters and tranquil clusters. We compare the performance of our models with a conventional c-means clustering model and a benchmark probit model. The results show that the proposed models achieve a similar level of out-of-sample performance as the probit model and c-means model. The fuzzy approach also introduces additional explanatory advantages into the early-warning analysis process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
42.
This paper examines how the preferences of a large economy’s central bank affect the trade‐off between output and inflation volatility faced by the central bank of a small open economy by analyzing the impact of a global cost‐push shock. We demonstrate that under the assumption of producer currency pricing, the trade‐off faced by the small open economy is likely to worsen as the foreign central bank becomes more focused on output stabilization relative to inflation stabilization; but the opposite is true in the case of local currency pricing. 相似文献
43.
In this paper, we propose a risk forecasting model for emerging market currencies. Our model is based on the Markov regime
switch which is constructed by exploiting daily equity market information, and we show that our model outperforms the existing
model using macroeconomic information. We evaluate it by the performance measures, the goodness-of-fit and the Wilcoxon rank-sum
test. 相似文献
44.
李明友 《上海金融学院学报》2011,(2):88-92
由于1930年代实行金本位制,各国不能采用货币政策和财政政策来刺激经济,而是往往在货币贬值、外汇管制和贸易保护三种办法中选择一种或两种,最终的结果是国际贸易大幅减少,全球经济衰退加剧。我们刚刚经历全球金融危机,如何在目前信用本位——纸币本位情形下,既严守货币纪律,又提升经济发展,是一个值得思考的问题,然而,目前的情形是发生竞争性货币贬值的危险相对较大。如何避免悲剧重演考验着各国的智慧和意志。 相似文献
45.
Brian K. Boyd 《战略管理杂志》1995,16(4):301-312
Several studies have addressed the CEO duality-performance relationship, with inconsistent results. This paper proposes that these inconsistencies can be resolved by integrating agency and stewardship perspectives on duality. Using data from 192 firms in 12 industries, both the direction and magnitude of the duality-performance relationship was found to vary systematically across Dess and Beard's (1984) environmental dimensions. These results provide partial support for both agency and stewardship perspectives. 相似文献
46.
This study examines the impact that the publication of ratings of boards of directors by the business press has on stockholder wealth. We report findings from an event study of price reactions to the publication of Business Week's 1996 and 1997 ratings of boards of directors of U.S. corporations. As hypothesized, favorable ratings resulted in significant positive abnormal returns after controlling for market effects and confounding events, with only novel information explaining statistical variance. Contrary to expectations, unfavorable ratings also resulted in positive abnormal returns. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
47.
BETTY C. DANIEL 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2010,42(6):1109-1135
This paper combines insights from generation one currency crisis models and the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) to create a dynamic FTPL model of currency crises. The initial fixed‐exchange‐rate policy entails risks due to an upper bound on government debt and stochastic surplus shocks. Agents refuse to lend into a position for which the value of debt exceeds the present value of expected future surpluses. Policy switching, usually combined with currency depreciation, restores fiscal solvency and lending. This model can explain a wide variety of crises, including those involving sovereign default. We illustrate by explaining the crisis in Argentina (2001). 相似文献
48.
预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文旨在研究可将两代货币危机模型有机地结合在一起的用于预测央行脆弱性的VaR模型,这一模型为央行提供了一个预警指标,同时也为市场参与者提供了一个判断央行是否具有偿付能力的依据。 相似文献
49.
经济活动严重依赖于美元致使我国对外贸易和国际储备安全受制于美国的战略黑箱,宏观调控的独立性受到掣肘,汇率政策面临二难选择。出于自身狭隘利益的考量,美国当局不可能自愿改变我行我素的行事风格,所以跳出“美元陷阱”不能奢望于美国当局的良心发现,只有唯一路径———“去美元化”———在美元之外构建一种新的国际支付手段为我所用。构建这种新的国际支付手段的应然路径是联合主要大宗矿产资源大国构建共同货币。 相似文献
50.
随着中国—东盟自由贸易区的顺利落成,意味着我国与东盟的经贸往来将变得更加密切,而人民币在东南亚的流通和使用就必然面临着人民币区域化。人民币区域化理论研究的突破应和如何把握CAFTA这个平台结合起来。本文通过综述相关文献来厘清人民币区域化的货币动因,并通过相关实证研究阐释CAFTA这个贸易平台对与人民币区域化顺利实施的重要意义。 相似文献