我国央行控制货币供给能力的分析

本文首先从货币供给过程中的基础货币和货币乘数这两个环节入手,从理论上分析了我国央行对货币供给的控制能力.同时我国正处于社会主义市场经济的发展和转轨阶段,市场经济体制还很不完善,这些特殊国情使得我国的货币供给量更加难以控制.而且在当今金融创新、金融放松管制和全球金融市场一体化的背景之下,各个层次的货币供应量之间的界限更加不易确定,基础货币的扩张系数也失去了以往的稳定性,这又进一步强化了我国货币供给的内生性.通过对上述复杂因素的综合分析,探讨了我国央行对货币供给不可控性的深层次原因.     

Same currency,different strategies? The (asymmetric) role of the exchange rate in shaping European agri-food exports

This article uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NADRL) model introduced by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to assess the role that the exchange rate plays in shaping European agri-food exports after the introduction of the Euro. Although the 10 countries of this study share the same currency (and thus a single nominal exchange rate with the US), cross-country discrepancies of exports’ reactions to exchange rate changes are evident. Moreover, I find that exchange rate changes influence exports asymmetrically in the long run. Euro appreciations are harmful to a lesser extent than Euro depreciations are beneficial for European agri-food exports. The magnitude of this effect is country-specific and varies considerably between individual exporting countries. Exported quantities are less affected by exchange rate fluctuations than export values, which is in line with local currency price stabilization strategies of the exporters. This finding is interpreted as a sign of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through due to strategic (asymmetric) markup adjustments by firms with heterogeneous productivity. Besides that, the outcomes suggest that nonprice competition might be in play in some cases.     

Experimental analysis on the role of a large speculator in currency crises

Corsetti et al. (2004) demonstrate that the presence of a large speculator in the foreign exchange market makes the remaining traders more aggressive in their speculative attacks. We conduct an experiment designed to test their theoretical predictions and also use the experiment to analyze an additional aspect that has not been previously covered in the literature: namely, whether the entry of a large speculator and the exit of the same speculator have the same effect in magnitude on the probability of a successful speculative attack. We obtain two main findings. First, the results support the main conclusion of Corsetti et al. (2004) that the presence of a large speculator makes other small speculators more aggressive. Second, the results suggest that the effect of the entry of a large speculator on the probability of successful speculative attacks is larger than that of the exit of the same speculator.     

Did taxes,decrees or credibility drive money? Early nineteenth century Finland from a chartalist perspective

Chartalist theories assume the government determines the currency used by the public. Finland’s experience following the Russo-Swedish war in 1808–1809 would seem to contradict the chartalist view. Having become a Grand Duchy under Russia, the Finnish Government sought to replace Swedish riksdalers in circulation with roubles. However, due to a resilient trade surplus with Sweden and the resulting flood of Swedish money into Finland, bans on the riksdaler were largely ineffective. Taxation proved a particularly clumsy tool for leveraging the switch to roubles. Taxpayers almost forced the government to accept payments in a foreign currency. Even the government had to use Swedish money. Issuing roubles was of limited use. As a result, the rouble failed to establish itself as Finland’s main currency until the introduction of a silver standard in 1840–1842.     

Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform

I. Introduction The Chinese government announced its change in exchange rate system from the dollar peg system into a managed floating exchange rate system “with reference to” a currencybasket on 21 July 2005 1. The exchange rate system reform has been regarded as a historical?2006 The Authors regime switching in China. This Chinese government decision has preferable effects on neighboring countries in choosing exchange rate system or exchange rate policy because the monetary authorities …     

新重商主义与美国金融霸权的失落——从贸易战争到货币战争

金融危机后国际上依然难以摆脱重商主义治国术,这种理念根植于近代强国之梦身后的重商主义历史。如今,美国新自由主义外衣下,推行重金式的新重商主义政策,并具有金融帝国主义的特征。从早期实施贸易战争到当前的货币战争,债务型的美元信用不断自贬,虽然消融了主权债务并窃取了财富,但也导致美国新重商主义最终走上荷兰式衰落之路。马克思主义揭示的资本衰亡规律,依旧深刻而富有生命力。中国应当摆脱美国新重商主义的纠缠,改进中国出口模式。     

货币政策影响居民储蓄行为的有效性分析

本选取了我国1994年至2000年的统计数据，通过统计学的方法来分析货币政策在分流我国居民的巨额储蓄时是否有效，并进一步分析了对货币政策效果产生干扰的制度因素。     

关于中国货币政策有效性问题的探讨

开放经济对货币政策运行环境、传导机制、调控手段和目标都产生了重要的影响,使得保持货币政策的有效性变得更加复杂.主要表现为:外部均衡在货币政策中的地位显著提高;利率政策和汇率政策相互影响;货币供给的内生性增强;国际经济渠道在货币政策传导机制中的重要性上升;部分货币政策工具的调节力度有所下降.随着我国对外开放进程的加快,要提高货币政策的有效性,必须加快汇率制度改革,建立市场化的汇率机制;把我国的货币政策中介目标逐渐由货币供给量变为市场利率;加快利率市场化改革;注重利率政策和汇率政策的协调.     

人民币汇率走势分析

不同的劳动生产率和不同的现代通货膨胀和紧缩,在不同的国家体现了不同的商品标准定位价格。国际汇率是依据各国当时的单位法定纸币可以交换的商品价值量确定的,应当是各种法定纸币的各国商品标准定位价格的比例。根据这样的现代通货理论,可以分析人民币和美元、欧元、日元汇率的基本走势。     

Globalization,Financial Liberalization and the Behavior of the Long Run Money Demand in the Bangladesh Economy

ABSTRACT

The paper estimates the long run demand for money function in the Bangladesh economy using cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Modeling (VECM) technique. The cointegration results suggest that although the process of globalization has shown no significant impact on money demand by the fact that the foreign interest rate is seen as statistically not significant, the financial liberalization has an important impact, reflected in the statistically significant role of domestic interest rate, in influencing both M1 and M2 money demand. An estimate of VECMs also reveals the fact that the short run speed of adjustment is moderately influenced by the financial reform measures to establish the long run relation between money balances, income and domestic interest rates. The phenomenon of credit constraint in the context of a developing country has shown no significant role in influencing money demand, which may imply that the stage of financial development is getting higher level in the Bangladesh economy. The existence of exchange rate depreciation in the cointegration relation with the expected sign suggests that currency substitution is now effective in the monetary sector and, therefore, its impact should be considered in the Bangladesh monetary policy matrix.