虚拟货币问题研究

文章没有将虚拟货币与虚拟币等同起来,而是首先区分几种主要的虚拟币,再进一步分析其中两种可能成为虚拟货币的虚拟币,然后阐述了虚拟货币与虚拟币的关系,以及虚拟货币在货币发展中的地位。     

SPECULATIVE CURRENCY ATTACKS AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISES

Abstract. This paper reviews the recent theoretical literature on collapsing exchange rate regimes. Using a combination of technique, intuition and realworld observation, we discuss the literature's main insights, point out some unresolved questions and offer suggestions for future research. The survey should be of interest to both specialists and non-specialists in the field of international macroeconomics.     

Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries

This note looks at the correlation of short‐term business cycles in the euro area and the EU accession countries. The issue is assessed with the help of vector autoregressive models. There are clear differences in the degree of correlation between accession countries. For Hungary and Slovenia, euro area shocks can explain a large share of variation in industrial production, while for some countries this influence is much smaller. For the latter countries, the results imply that joining the monetary union could entail reasonably large costs, unless their business cycles converge closer to the euro area cycle. Generally, for smaller countries the relative influence of the euro area business cycle is larger. Also, it is found that the most advanced accession countries are at least as integrated with the euro area business cycle as some small present member countries of the monetary union. JEL classification: E32, F15, F42.     

Credible Currency: A Constitutional Perspective

By contrast to private banks, public monetary authorities – central banks and currency boards – have limited credibility in making redemption or fixed-exchange-rate commitments. Their sovereign immunity obviates legal penalties for devaluing, and their monopoly status weakens reputational penalties. The softness of central bank promises invites speculative attack and currency crises. Privatization and decentralization of exchange-rate commitments provides a more credible currency by making redemption commitments legally enforceable and reputable. This contrast sheds light on (1) the breakdown of the classical gold standard and (2) the costs and benefits of dollarization. JEL Classification: E42, H42.     

美元化与区域货币的合作关系

美元化是区域化在国际货币体系方面的一个重要体现,而作为一种事实、一种过程或政策,在各国民间或官方活动中,美元化已成为区域货币合作的一种重要方式.美元化既是区域货币合作发展的产物,另一方面它的发展也是区域货币合作的新实践,推动着区域货币合作的发展.各国在实施美元化的过程中应该注意强化本位货币作用和计价货币作用、外汇储备应保持适度规模和多样性以及发挥在区域经济合作中的作用.     

货币竞争、货币替代与人民币区域化

货币竞争的基础是经济主体的理性选择,其结果就是货币替代.人民币区域化实质上是人民币积极参与区域货币竞争,并试图替代区域内其他货币的过程.尽管在货币竞争中胜出的收益大于成本,但享受利益与承担成本的主体不同,常常使一国政府在面临本币国际化时犹豫不决.鉴于目前人民币在区域货币竞争中的地位,为取得人民币区域货币竞争的最后胜利,应在维持人民币势力范围的同时积极寻求区域货币联盟,同时加快经济与金融体制改革.     

投机性货币冲击引发货币危机的条件及防范

由投机性货币冲击所引发的固定汇率制崩溃给实行固定汇率制的国家(或地区)的经济发展蒙上了一层沉重的阴影。为此，本文运用国内外关于货币危机中货币投机性冲击理论的最新研究成果分析了欧洲货币危机和东南亚金融危机中投机冲击致胜的基本条件，进而提出了我国加入WTO后防范和化解人民币危机的相关措施。     

Benefits from Asia-Pacific Mutual Fund Investments with Currency Hedging

This study presents empirical evidence on the efficiency and effectiveness of hedging U.S.-based international mutual funds with an Asia-Pacific investment objective. The case for active currency risk management is examined for a passive and a selective hedge, which is constructed with currency futures in the major currencies. Both static and dynamic hedging models are used to estimate the risk-minimizing hedge ratio. The results show that currency hedging improves the performance of internationally diversified mutual funds. Such hedging is beneficial even when based on prior optimal hedge ratios. Further, efficiency gains from hedging, as measured by the percent change in the Sharpe Index, are greatest under a selective portfolio strategy that is implemented with an optimal constant hedge ratio.     

Foreign currency borrowing,exports and firm performance: evidence from a currency crisis

This paper develops a simple signaling model of foreign currency borrowing that yields predictions about firm survival and performance during a currency crisis. Using a large panel of firm level data for South Korea we offer empirical support for many of the predictions of our model, while others support predictions that cannot be tested using our data. Our paper demonstrates that although firms that borrow in foreign currency are more likely to exit after the currency collapses, those that continue to produce perform better. Among them, the best performers are exporters whose foreign sales are more competitively priced under a devalued currency.     

Currency Unions: Some Lessons from the Euro-Zone

Whilst there are many sizeable benefits from currency union, the main disadvantage is often the difficulty of adjusting to an asymmetric shock. Such adjustment is easier when the separate countries (regions) in such a union have flexible labour markets, and when there is a federal fiscal system to ease the adjustment process. The euro-zone has neither. We show that the trends in relative unit labour costs have in several recent cases been worsening relative competitiveness, thereby putting the euro-zone under greater centrifugal pressure. Nevertheless the costs of ‘exit’ are so high that it would only probably occur as a consequence of political mis-calculation.