储备货币竞争与国际货币体系不稳定性

不兑现货币制度下,储备货币发行国具有巨大的政治经济利益,而承担的成本却很小,主要储备货币国具有增发货币以获得储备货币收益的内在冲动。随着欧元使用范围的扩大,欧元货币地位上升较快,形成了与美元的竞争态势。但现行国际货币体系缺乏对国际储备货币供给的约束,在现实背景下竞争不但未能阻止货币滥发,反而形成了世界性的流动性过剩。缺乏有效监管使国际短期资本流动频繁而剧烈,引起汇率大幅波动,国际货币体系更具不稳定性。     

论全球储备货币多元化格局与中国外汇储备之出路

如今出现金融危机,美元的长期滥发以至全球流动性泛滥难辞其咎。可以预见,美元霸权在未来必将终结,世界货币体系需要重建,最终形成储备货币多元化格局。中国应投资实体产业,以寻求供需平衡之道。     

计价货币选择理论述评

计价货币的选择是促进一国货币实现国际化的重要因素。本文在对主要研究进展进行综述的基础上,力图从国际经济贸易的交易成本、商品的海外市场需求、工具货币的选用和宏观经济政策的实施几个方面对货币计价的理论进行一个全方位的梳理,以期对人民币国际化的相关研究做出一定程度的理论参考。     

Emerging floaters: Pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies

In spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade. Using parsimonious VAR specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates, this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass-throughs to consumer price indices. We find that pass-throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities. Previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass-throughs ignored changes in policy regimes, making them vulnerable to the Lucas critique. We find that, within the group of emerging floaters, estimated pass-throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods. These findings are consistent with the pass-through model of Floden and Wilander (2006) and earlier findings by Campa and Goldberg (2005), respectively. Furthermore, we find that the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and possibly the Mexican Peso are commodity currencies, in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices.     

人民币国际化：计量研究及政策分析

中国经济的迅速发展唤起了人们对世界经济前景的重新思索,而人民币作为国际化货币崛起的可能性则是这其中最引人注目的话题之一。本文通过对各国央行国际储备、贸易结算、以及国际债券中的各国货币比重进行计量分析,意图挖掘影响一国货币国际化水平的内在因素,文章研究得出的显著因素包括:一国的经济发展总量、通货膨胀率、真实利率水平、汇率升(贬)值及波动幅度等。在回归结果上,本文进一步模拟了未来2020年主要国际货币在国际储备、贸易结算及国际债券中的比重,特别是在假设人民币可自由兑换的前提下,人民币在国际货币中可能占据的比重。在完全可兑换假设和最乐观的预测下,到2020年人民币在国际储备和国际债券中的比例可能达到近20%。我们认为完全可以采取一种双轨制的步骤,充分发挥境内、境外两个市场的作用,包括在境内实行有步骤、渐进式的资本账户下可兑换,逐步改善金融市场的运作效率;在境外充分运用香港的优势,尽快扩大人民币证券市场规模,推进人民币国际化的进程。     

What can Islamic financing tell us about macro-prudential policies?

Macro-prudential policies are theoretically effective at mitigating a debt deflation crisis by forcing individuals to internalize their impact on aggregate prices reducing systemic risk caused by pecuniary externalities. To better understand the potential effectiveness of a macro-prudential time varying tax/subsidy on debt/dividends, we empirically estimate the impact of an Islamic financing presence on financial crises. Adherence to Islamic financing principles for a nontrivial portion of a country’s population has similar impacts to a macro-prudential policy in that these limited asset holders are likely to hold less debt or use debt-like instruments rather than conventional debt, driving down their marginal rate of substitution and the price of equity in equilibrium. To empirically estimate the effects of this policy, we interact an Islamic financing variable with debt in an otherwise standard model of financial crises. The results show that this macro-prudential-like policy decreases the likelihood of a banking crisis by 50%. The contribution of the article is twofold. First, we show that an Islamic finance presence encourages precautionary savings like a macro-prudential policy. Second, using an Islamic finance presence to capture macro-prudential potential effects, we find empirically that the likelihood of banking crises are cut roughly by half when such policies are in effect.     

Location,location, location: currency effects and return predictability?

Most international financial market studies that compare across countries utilize the US dollar as the common numeraire. We explore the little studied question of the appropriate choice for the base currency and ask if currency choice can affect the final conclusion of whether predictability exists. We provide empirical results for stock return predictability that demonstrate the importance of the numeraire. For example, the existence (absence) of predictability for a US investor does not necessarily imply the existence (absence) of predictability for other foreign investors.