通用装备供应链管理实施战略方法论研究

本文介绍了通用装备实施供应链管理过程中制订实施战略的方法,实施过程中制定综合集成研讨厅的体系结构、支撑技术和实施要求。     

论我国传统货币理论的局限性

我国传统货币理论只适用于金属货币经济。在信用货币条件下,其基本结论不能成立。本文在分析我国传统货币理论局限性的基础上,提出货币的本质不是充当一般等价物的特殊商品,而是信用的观点。同时又对货币形式的演变、货币的职能和货币流通规律等基本问题进行了探讨。     

An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting

We discuss and develop an imbalance-crisis turning point model to forecast the likelihood of a financial crisis based on an Analytic Network Process framework. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a general theory of relative measurement used to derive composite-priority-ratio scales from individual-ratio scales that represent relative influence of factors that interact with respect to control criteria. Through its supermatrix, which is composed of matrices of column priorities, the ANP framework captures the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of explanatory factors. We argue that our framework is more flexible and is more comprehensive than traditional methods and previous models. We illustrate how the ANP model would be implemented for forecasting the probability of crises.     

“Large” versus “Small” Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks

What is the role of “large players” (e.g., hedge funds) in speculative attacks? Recent work suggests that large players move early to induce smaller agents to attack. However, many observers argue that large players move late in order to benefit from interest‐rate differentials. We propose a model in which large players can do both. Using data on currency trading by foreign (large) and local (small) players, we find that foreign players moved last in three attacks on the Norwegian krone during the 1990s. During the attack on the Swedish krona after the Russian moratorium in 1998, foreign players moved early. Gains by delaying attack were small, however, because interest rates did not increase.     

Foreign exchange reserve adequacy and exogenous shocks

One of the traditional benchmarks in international macroeconomics is that a country should maintain reserves that can cover at least 12 weeks of imports. The notion of reserve adequacy, however, is not static and is intimately associated with the occurrence of financial crises as well as exogenous shocks, with many observers using the reduction in reserves below this benchmark as a sign of fragility. This article provides a benefit-cost type approach to evaluating reserve adequacy. The benefits of holding reserves are evaluated using a dynamic random effects probit model of financial crises while the cost of reserve holdings (output loss due to an over-investment in reserves) is obtained from a panel growth equation. Using the methodology outlined above, the study finds that in small states, the optimal holding of foreign exchange reserves is approximately 25 weeks of imports, approximately 13 weeks higher than the international rule-of-thumb. This estimate of optimal reserve holdings is interrelated with the economic characteristics of the country, particularly its fiscal stance. Indeed, this article finds that countries with a prudent public expenditure management framework in place are able to hold a smaller stock of reserves without necessarily impacting the expected growth for the country.     

Political aspects of the capital controversies and capitalist crises

The Cambridge controversies about the theory of capital were ultimately underpinned by a clash between two different visions of capitalism, the neoclassical view, according to which distribution depends on the supply and demand curves of capital and labor, and the post Keynesian view, according to which distribution depends on political and institutional factors instead. I shall argue that the distinction between “meritocratic capitalism” and “patrimonial capitalism,” which underpins the discussions surrounding Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, is also connected to those two different visions of capitalism, which were behind the Cambridge controversies. These two visions of capitalism have important implications for our understanding of political power over workers, and also to our understanding of political power over land and its natural resources. The role of land and natural resources was not discussed in the Cambridge controversies, but is addressed in Piero Sraffa’s Production of Commodities, and is implied in Piketty’s inclusion of land in his definition of capital, which brings in a geographical dimension to our understanding of capitalism and capitalist crises, as I shall argue.     

电子货币和虚拟货币影响铸币税的理论及量化研究

由于电子货币对现金和活期存款的取代,无论采取哪种铸币税定义,电子货币的发行和流通都会导致铸币税减少;不同类型虚拟货币对铸币税有不同的影响,类型Ⅰ不会影响央行的铸币税,类型Ⅱ会减少央行的铸币税,类型Ⅲ和类型Ⅳ对铸币税的影响取决于其对现实世界货币需求的降低效应与增加效应的相对强弱;如果流通中的现金完全被电子货币和虚拟货币取代,则 G10平均将损失34.59％的铸币税（2001年数据）,而中国将损失31.67％的铸币税（2013年数据）,但损失的铸币税占 GDP 的比例较低。电子货币和虚拟货币是货币发展的未来形态,任何禁止电子货币和虚拟货币的措施都是不明智的;但应采取措施（如建立电子货币、虚拟货币发行准备金制度）减轻电子货币、虚拟货币对现金和活期存款的替代,从而减轻电子货币和虚拟货币对铸币税以及财政政策的影响。     

由最适度通货区理论看亚元近期实施之不可能性

最适度通货区理论揭示了建立区域性统一货币机制的条件，亚洲国家开始考虑仿效欧元以推出自己的货币（亚元），而从现实基础看，实施亚元尚不可行。     

Second Generation Models of Currency Crises

Until the beginning of the 1990s, currency crises were typically analyzed within the framework of a generation of models that assumed that the foreign exchange reserves of a country that was running a fixed exchange rate policy were falling (because the government was running a deficit on its budget that was financed by printing money). When the foreign exchange reserves reached a lower bound, a speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate was launched. Today, this theory is no longer the benchmark when explaining the occurrence of a currency crisis. Actually, a new generation of models that seeks to take explicitly into account the costs and benefits associated with the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate has emerged. This paper surveys these 'second generation models of currency crises'. This generation of models emphasizes that it is an endogenous decision if a government chooses to abandon a policy of fixed exchange rates. The survey pays special attention to the fact that the second generation of currency crises models often generates multiple equilibria for the rate of devaluation given one state of the economic fundamentals. A currency crisis can thus occur even if no secular trend in economic fundamentals can be identified, as in recent currency crises.