Assessing farmers’ risk preferences and their determinants in a marginal upland area of Vietnam: a comparison of multiple elicitation techniques

We examine the consistency of risk preference measures based on eight hypothetical elicitation methods and a lottery game applied to smallholder farmers in a marginal upland environment in Vietnam. Using these measures, we identify influencing factors of risk aversion via regression analysis, whereby unlike previous studies, we include several proxies of social capital such as social networks and norms. Data were collected from household heads and spouses separately in a random sample of 300 households. Although correlations between most of the various risk preference measures are all statistically highly significant, most are weak. On average, respondents have a high degree of risk aversion and specific characteristics—gender, age, idiosyncratic shocks, education, social norms, network‐reliance with extended family, and connections to local authorities—are significant determinants of risk preferences across most elicitation methods, whereas others—the household's dependency ratio, wealth, and covariate shocks—are significant in a few methods only. The explanatory power of the models is limited, indicating that other factors are likely to be of greater importance in determining risk preferences. The results can help target safety nets, encourage investments, and lead to the development of more applicable methods for assessing risk preferences of smallholders in developing countries.     

基于熵权物元可拓模型的航班恢复决策评价

为了在协同决策机制下对航空公司运控人员就不正常航班恢复做出的决策进行科学性及有效性进行评估,结合航空公司实际情况,利用物元模型与可拓理论相结合的方法,从机组安全程度、机组疲劳程度、总体成本、服务保障能力和地面延误时间5个方面入手,构建不正常航班恢复决策评价体系。针对传统物元模型存在的不足,对物元模型的经典域和节域进行规格化处理。由于不正常航班恢复决策评估受主观因素影响较大,通过引入熵权法分析确定体系指标权重系数,以此来降低主观因素对评价结果的影响。并以定量结果证明不正常航班恢复决策的科学性和可行性。最后,通过案例仿真,证明该方法可以在协同决策机制下对不正常航班恢复决策进行有效评价。     

常态化疫情防控下铁路客运安全监管的应急管理决策研究

首先针对铁路客运安全监管应急管理流程现状存在的问题,分析常态化疫情防控的新要求,明确铁路客运安全监管的防控任务,并提出相关建议;进而响应铁路客运安全应急管理体系更新的要求,分析构建了其中关键的重大公共卫生事件案例库、铁路客运安全监管数据库、客流追溯技术库以及铁路客运防疫策略库等四个应急管理决策数据库的具体框架;最后,结合疫情发展态势,给出了常态化疫情防控下铁路客运安全监管应急管理决策框架的具体运行路径,为国家铁路局和地方各级铁路监管部门做好铁路客运安全的常态化疫情防控提供了决策支持。     

社会经济因素对农户种植决策行为的影响——基于主体模型的像元尺度模拟

[目的]保证粮食安全关乎国计民生和社会稳定。合理调控种植结构,优化粮食配比和产量,对于稳定粮食安全有着举足轻重的作用。目前,以大豆为主的油料作物多依赖进口,严重威胁我国的粮食安全,为了优化种植结构,提升油料作物自给率,对农户种植决策行为的研究十分必要,具有科学价值和政策意义。[方法]文章选取黑龙江省松嫩平原粮食主产区的主粮种植结构为研究对象,通过农户问卷调查并结合社会经济统计数据以及作物空间分布数据,采用基于主体模型（Agent-based Model,简称ABM模型）模拟了2016—2020年农户作物种植（大豆、水稻、玉米）的决策行为以及作物空间分布格局。[结果]ABM模型模拟的平均总体精度为63%,结果显示种植决策行为与社会规范因素较为相关,例如：农户所处周边社会环境中大多数人种植水稻,该农户有较高的概率选择种植水稻;经济因素也是重要的影响因素,例如：水稻种植收益高则更多人种水稻。根据ABM模型的情景分析结果显示,农户受周围农户种植决策影响程度越高,越倾向于选择周围农户的种植结构;而当大豆补贴金额变化时,农户更倾向于选择种植收入较高的种植结构。[结论]该研究构建的基于农户决策行为的...     

Option pricing with the control variate technique beyond Monte Carlo simulation

Although mostly used alongside Monte Carlo simulation, the control-variate (CV) technique can be applied to other numerical algorithms in option pricing. This paper studies the conditions under which a numerical method (simulation-based or not) can benefit from the CV technique and what approximators can serve as CVs. We demonstrate the ideas with Carr and Madan’s Fourier transform-based algorithm, convolution-based pricing algorithms, and classic binomial trees. Numerical results are provided to show that the CV-enhanced versions are more efficient than the original algorithms.     

Opportunity Evaluation as Rule‐Based Decision Making

We draw from cognitive science literature on rule‐based thinking to develop and empirically test a theoretical framework of entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation. We argue that entrepreneurs make use of socially constructed rules to discern the attractiveness of an opportunity, for them, specifically. Using conjoint analysis data of 498 decisions made by 62 entrepreneurs, we find that entrepreneurs' use of rules regarding opportunity novelty, resource efficiency, and worst‐case scenario significantly influences entrepreneurs' evaluations of opportunities and that individual differences in opportunity market and technology knowledge augment the effect of the rules on opportunity attractiveness. Additionally, we document that the worst‐case scenario diminishes the positive effect of other rule criteria (e.g. novelty, resource efficiency) on opportunity evaluation and that market and technology knowledge further influence the negative effects of the worst‐case scenario.     

基于区域产业视角的产学研协同创新发展规划

各类型大学必须结合自己学科专业优势规划建设协同创新中心。本研究首先提出一个基于区域产业视角的协同创新规划框架,框架包括区域产业分析、协同创新目标与任务拟定、发展思路和制度保障拟定、资源汇聚计划与措施拟定、创新成效与社会贡献评估五个步骤。然后以广东技术师范学院数字媒体技术专业为例,阐述应用该框架的规划流程,为信息技术类相关专业协同创新发展规划提供参考思路。     

脚手架施工安全事故模式研究

针对脚手架事故频发造成众多人员伤亡和重大经济损失这一问题,运用事故树分析法阐述导致脚手架事故的原因,找出预防事故的关键途径,从而减少事故的发生。以最小割集、最小径集、结构重要度对事故树进行定性、定量评价;采用灰色关联分析法对各种倾覆、坍塌事故模式进行识别;分析脚手架系统的薄弱环节,对影响事故的各种因素及其逻辑关系做出全面的阐述,为最大限度地预防脚手架事故发生及人员伤亡提供重要的理论依据。     

企业信用抉择经济模型探讨

良好的企业信用是企业自身的无形价值,在竞争日益激烈的今天,企业竞争不仅仅只是硬实力方面的较量,基于企业文化软实力的企业信用也十分关键。本文运用决策树原理,建立了企业信用抉择经济模型并探讨了影响因素。     

钢铁企业原材料采购决策探讨

2011年以后,钢铁的价格不断降低,使得钢铁行业不能够盈利或者盈利太低,当然这其中也有成本侵蚀和银行涨息的因素。随着信贷危机的不断发生,银行对于钢铁行业不再信任,甚至翻脸不认人,使得钢铁行业贷款的难度系数不断增加,所需要的成本也不断增加。所以钢铁行业要想继续赢得利润抵御风险、提高生存能力,运用科学合理的方法降低钢铁原材料的成本就显得尤为重要,这就必须对原材料的采购过程进行科学决策,以降低原材料成本,进而提高钢铁企业的盈利和生产能力。