Stabilizing consumer choice: the role of ‘true dynamic stability’ and related concepts in the history of consumer choice theory

Abstract

It is often argued that the inability of Arrow–Debreu general equilibrium theory to produce an adequate proof of the stability of the Walrasian price adjustment mechanism was one of the program's most significant failures. This paper will not question this standard interpretation of the history of general equilibrium theory, but makes the case that characterizing the ‘stability’ question in terms of market stability– in particular the stability of the equilibrium price vector in the Walrasian general equilibrium model – actually helped to stabilize the standard model of consumer choice in general equilibrium theory and elsewhere within microeconomics. The problem of the stability of ‘consumer's equilibrium’ was much discussed early in the twentieth century, and it has recently re-emerged in a different guise as the ‘endowment effects’ and ‘reference dependencies’ of contemporary behavioral economics, and yet it disappeared from mainstream discussion during the period 1950 to 1980. This paper argues that shifting the discussion from the intra-agent stability of the individual consumer to the inter-agent stability of the competitive market contributed – despite its ultimately negative impact on general equilibrium theory – to the long period of stable normal science consumer choice theory enjoyed during the middle of the twentieth century.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Africa

In order to account for currency substitution, the exchange rate is included in the demand for money. More recent studies have demonstrated that exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects on the demand for money or domestic currency. In this paper, we consider the experiences of 18 African countries and show that in most countries, indeed exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money. However, short-run effects translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in a limited number of African countries.     

N‐FIRM OLIGOPOLY WITH GENERAL ISO‐ELASTIC DEMAND

In this note oligopoly with iso‐elastic demand is analysed. Unlike previous studies we consider general iso‐elastic demand rather than the case of unit elasticity. An n‐firm Nash‐Cournot equilibrium for the case of heterogeneous constant marginal costs is derived. The main result is a closed‐form solution that shows the dependency of the equilibrium on the elasticity of demand and the share of industry costs. The result has applications to a wide range of areas in oligopoly theory by allowing comparisons across markets with different elasticities of demand.     

海洋环境管制的供需矛盾分析

本文从我国海洋环境问题的现实出发，重点分析了海洋环境管制的供求现状和矛盾，指出我国海洋环境管制的必要性和紧迫性。同时，结合我国海洋环境管制的现实，探讨了我国海洋环境管制的发展，提出我国在加强海洋环境管制的同时应拓宽思路，促进海洋环境管制的有效供给。     

Testing separability of public consumption in household decisions

In this paper we propose a sequential strategy, based on the microeconomic approach of the demand theory, in order to test for separability between private and public consumption. The aim of the present work is to verify, using a conditional almost ideal demand system, whether the different components of public consumption exert conditioning effects on the allocative structure of private spending. The empirical estimation of the model and the separability tests are developed for both a demand system in five functional categories of private spending, and for a demand system in six categories, where the private expenditures on those goods and services which can also be offered by the public sector are enclosed in a single functional category. The results of the separability tests, obtained using UK data for the 1974–2000 period, show that public individual consumption plays an important role in modifying consumer choices, while public collective consumption does not affect private consumption behaviours. The relationships between the different components of private spending and public individual consumption are both of substitutability and complementarity; in particular, we find that public individual consumption and the corresponding private expenditures on ‘Health, education, recreation and social protection’ are complements.     

慎重看待大用户直供电问题

论述了在电力市场初期我国缺少实施大用户直供电所必须具备的若干条件,分析了当前开展大用户直供电存在的问题及可能造成的影响,指出开展直供是改革的趋势但不可急于求成.     

新冠肺炎疫情的经济影响分析：长期视角与短期应对*

本文从需求和供给两侧分析了此次新冠疫情对我国经济的短期和长期影响。在需求侧，基于理论分析和非典疫情对经济的影响特征，经济总需求会随着此次疫情的结束而在短期内快速得到恢复。但此次疫情也会加大总需求和居民收入增速的下行压力。在供给侧，疫情不仅会降低劳动力资源配置效率，加剧劳动力供需结构矛盾，同时也大幅降低了我国的资本投资，在缺乏有效干预措施下，很可能加剧我国资本投资和经济总体增速的短期下滑趋势。而基于理论分析，相应供给冲击也将对我国长期产出带来增长压力。基于疫情对我国经济需求侧和供给侧的影响分析，2020年要实现全面建成小康社会的经济目标需要实施改革力度更大、更为有效的财政和货币等支持政策。     

The use of open source internet to analysis and predict stock market trading volume

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of information demand and supply on stock market trading volume. Few studies have demonstrated the role of Google search data in analyzing trading volume activity. In this study, we employ a proxy for information demand which is derived from weekly internet search volume. The latest is from Google Trends database, for 25 of the largest stocks traded on CAC40 index, between April 2007 and March 2014. We use news headlines as a proxy for information supply. We use Garch model to analyze and predict trading volume.The empirical results present new evidences. First, information supply has an impact on trading volume but information demand's impact is much more important. Secondly, by applying MCA to results found, it could be concluded that the impact of public information on transaction volume is conditioned by two elements: the firm and market news disclosure and the second element relates to the characteristics of the market participants, more precisely their news interpretations and their risk aversion. Thirdly, we used Chow structural break test to verify the stability of our model. We found that for securities with structural changes, information demand is the responsible variable of the change in our model. Finally, we found that information variables have a predictive power on transaction volume.This paper contributes to existing literature by incorporating open source internet-based data into the analysis and prediction of transaction volume. Using internet information about the stock market, which has appeared recently as an interesting research for financial empiricists, computer scientists and practitioners, will have a very important utility because quantifying demand and supply of information becomes possible.     

农民工工资收入偏低分析——现实、宏观效应与原因

农民工工资收入长期处于一个较低的水平,然而,农民工对我国GDP及其增长做出了巨大的贡献。农民工对GDP增长的高贡献与其较低的工资收入水平导致了我国社会有效需求不足。农民工工资收入偏低的核心机制是古典产权制度下的工资市场定位。因此,要解决这个问题,必须进行相应的经济体制改革,构建和谐社会。     

Interest rates,distribution and capital accumulation – A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany

We analyse the effects of interest rate variations on the rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profit in a simple post-Kaleckian distribution and growth model. This model gives rise to different potential accumulation regimes depending on the values of the parameters in the investment, saving and distribution function. Estimating these core behavioural equations for the US and Germany in the period 1960–2007, we find significant and robust effects of interest payments with the expected sign in each of the equations. Our estimation results imply, both for the US and for Germany, that the effects of changes in the real long-term rate of interest on the equilibrium rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, are characterised by the ‘normal regime’: rising long-term real rates of interest cause falling rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, as well as redistribution at the expense of labour income and hence an increasing profit share in both countries.