The effect of inflation on growth

The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 transition countries over the 1990–2003 period; it uses a fixed effects panel approach to account for possible bias from correlations among the unobserved effects and the observed country heterogeneity. The results find a strong, robust, negative effect on growth of inflation or its standard deviation, and one that appears to decline in magnitude as the inflation rate increases, as seen for OECD countries. And the results include a role for a normalized money demand in affecting growth, as well as for a convergence variable, a trade variable and a government share variable. Robustness of the baseline single‐equation model is examined by expanding this into a three‐equation simultaneous system of output growth, inflation and money demand that allows for possible simultaneity bias in the baseline model.     

The demand for alcoholic beverages in Spain

The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of alcoholic beverages consumption at home. Data comes from the latest Spanish Household National Survey, which provides information on expenditure and quantities of different food products by household. Because households are interviewed only 1 week, a large number of zeros have been recorded. Among the existing censured demand models (the double hurdle (DH) model; the purchase‐infrequency model; and the Tobit purchase‐infrequency model, among others) and after carrying out model selection tests, the DH model has been finally estimated. All expenditure elasticities are positive, corresponding the highest value to spirits. Own price elasticities are negative and also in this case the spirits exhibit the highest value. Socio‐economic variables also play an important role in explaining consumer purchase and consumption decisions.     

基于区段能力利用率的客运需求结构研究

从梳理客运需求和客运量之间的关系入手,结合区段能力利用率,提出了客运需求结构的定量分析方法和模型。在此基础上,以2009年京沪铁路北京-廊坊区段为例,论述区段内客运需求结构的状况,并提出了研究结论和相关建议。     

铁路培训需求调查与分析

培训是一项系统工程，培训需求调查与分析是现代培训活动的首要环节，它既是确定培训目标、开发培训项目的前提，也是进行培训评估的基础。结合对铁路系统培训需求调查与分析的步骤与方法的阐述，提出进一步提高铁路系统培训需求调查分析工作的建议。     

提高供水能力 保证城市需求

本文分析了长春市供水现状 ,根据 2 0 0 5、2 0 15年需水量预测 ,提出提高城市供水能力的措施。     

The ‘miracle’ of car ownership in Japan's ‘Era of High Growth’, 1955–73

The ‘Era of High Growth’ in Japan is well known for its ‘miracle’ economy, although the reasons why car ownership increased during this period have been largely ignored. Both the ‘miracle’ and the process of motor manufacturing have been viewed from the perspective of supply rather than demand. This article examines the ways in which the formidable barriers to mass car ownership were removed during this period by analysing quantitative data and also reconsidering narratives of Japanese manufacturing predicated on Japanese cultural uniqueness (nihonjinron). It considers the Japanese as consumers as well as workers, and concludes that car ownership is less a ‘miracle’ than a manifestation of Japan's process of modernisation during the twentieth century.     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

On the Aggregate Value of Recreational Activities: A Nested Price Index Approach Using Poisson Demand Systems

An important consideration in the development ofregulations and policies that administer naturalresources in an area is the value of the non-marketactivities supported by those lands. Little attentionhas been paid to the aggregate value of largegeographic areas. This analysis builds autility-theoretic price index and utilizes this indexto estimate an aggregate Poisson demand to valuebackcountry recreational hiking opportunities innorthern California.     

银行机构扩张、支付工具改进与城镇储蓄存款增长——制度变量对货币需求影响的一个分析视角

规模变量、机会成本变量及制度变量是决定货币需求的三个因素,但一直以来货币需求研究主要聚焦于规模变量及机会成本,而较少考虑制度变量的影响。本文以银行机构及支付工具作为制度变量,从理论推导与实证分析两个方面探讨其对货币需求的影响,结论表明改革开放以来商业银行机构扩张及支付工具的改进节省了城镇居民的现金需求,而推动了城镇储蓄存款的增长。     

Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia: empirical evidence from Taiwan

Many Asian countries are expected to undergo structural transformations in their economies and rapid urbanization over the next 25 years. The changes in tastes and lifestyles engendered by urban living are likely to have significant influences on food demand. Changes in marketing systems and occupational changes, closely linked with increasing GNP per capita, also may influence the demand for food. In this paper, estimates presented for Taiwan demonstrate that structural changes in food demand (as distinguished from changes due to income and price effects) have been significant factors driving the rapid changes in dietary patterns seen in East Asia over the past three decades. Because most previous demand studies have ignored the possible influence of structural shifts which are highly correlated with increases in per capita income over time, the effects of income on food demand have been overestimated.