自然资源资产离任审计对绿色全要素生产率的影响——以长江经济带110个地级市为例

通过整理基础理论框架，对自然资源资产离任审计的试点政策可能产生的影响进行分析，基于2010—2017年长江流域经济带110个地级市的面板数据，将自然资源资产离任审计试点的实施政策作为准自然实验，运用多期DID模型评估离任审计的试点政策对地区绿色全要素生产率水平的影响。研究发现：自然资源资产离任审计能够有效提高地区的绿色全要素生产率水平；自然资源离任审计试点的政策效应在不同地区生产存在差异，主要表现在提高了长江流域上下游地区的绿色全要素生产率，对中游地区绿色全要素生产率的影响不显著。     

自贸区建设对污染企业全要素生产率的影响

基于中国自贸区试点这一准自然实验，利用企业和省份层面的数据，选择多时点双重差分法、三重差分法、PSM-DID法、异质性处理效应分析以及稳健性检验等方法，考察自贸区政策显对重污染企业全要素生产率的作用效果。研究发现：自贸区建设显著提高了重污染企业全要素生产率，且效应滞后两年后逐年递增。机制分析表明，自贸区设立主要通过融资约束、国有资本占比等途径作用于全要素生产率。异质性分析表明，东部企业、非国有企业和控制权多元化企业对自贸区建设更加敏感。结合断点回归进一步分析，集中供暖背景下，企业之间的南北差异会影响到自贸区的处理效应。自贸区建设对北方内陆地区污染企业的全要素生产率促进作用更大。研究对扩大中国对外开放水平、完善自贸区政策体系有重要意义。     

跨国并购、人民币汇率波动与企业经营风险

本文基于新冠疫情爆发后跨国并购规模不断扩大的背景下，利用全球并购数据以及国泰安数据库中的上市公司财务数据，将每家企业的跨国并购事件作为准自然实验，采用多期双重差分模型研究企业跨国并购对经营风险的影响，研究发现：跨国并购显著降低了企业经营风险，为了解决偏误性问题，本文还对其进行了双重差分倾向得分匹配检验。进一步影响机制表明，跨国并购通过“人力资本效应”提高了企业管理效率以及通过“技术进步效应”解决了企业在核心技术方面“卡脖子”的问题，进而降低经营风险。从异质性上看，跨国并购对降低技术密集型企业和大规模企业的经营风险效果更强。同时，本文还发现人民币汇率大幅度波动会加大跨国企业经营风险。因此，研究跨国并购对企业经营风险的影响，对企业长期高质量发展与提高国际竞争力具有现实意义。     

Effects of agri-environment schemes on farm-level eco-efficiency measures: Empirical evidence from EU countries

The European Union (EU) budget allocated to agri-environmental schemes (AES) has increased consistently over the past 20 years. European citizens should expect effective spending of these public funds, so investigation of the effects of these schemes on both environmental benefits and farm efficiency is warranted. We examine the effects of European agri-environmental schemes on farm-level eco-efficiency. Our analysis combines data envelopment analysis and impact assessment methods to evaluate the impact of scheme payments on eco-efficiency measures. Our results suggest that there is considerable scope for eco-efficiency improvements, both for dairy and crop production. Results also show that the average change in eco-efficiency scores does not vary significantly between AES participants and non-participants, which questions the effectiveness of present AES.     

新发展格局下电能承载质量的分异演化与耦合协调

电能是人类发展史上不可或缺的资源。新发展格局下，实现碳中和等目标必须合理利用和发展电能资源，电能承载质量的研究对于合理配置电能资源、达到碳中和和绿色发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。从“结构”“经济效益”“能耗”“支持度”4个维度构建指标体系，从电能承载质量的时空分异及演化、子系统的耦合协调性展开研究，从全国及3大区域电能承载水平的地区差异以及4个维度的发展差异方面提出应对策略。     

The Balassa-Samuelson model with job separations

We incorporate sectoral job separation rates in a small open economy model to examine the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) effect. Unequal separation rates give rise to compensating wage differentials. We simulate the model for Japan and replicate a feature of its economy that the nontradeables sector has higher wages and a higher separation rate compared to the tradeables sector. With productivity growth in the tradeables sector, labour moves from the tradeables sector to the nontradeables sector if tradeables and nontradeables are complements in consumption. The B-S effect is dampened. With a higher separation rate in the nontradeables sector, higher wages in the nontradeables sector amplifies this labour movement. Nevertheless, unemployment always falls due to a positive income effect. In contrast, the effect of productivity growth in the nontradeables sector is to lower the real exchange rate and raise unemployment.     

How Wealthy are the Rich?

Underreporting and undersampling biases in top tail wealth, although widely acknowledged, have not been statistically quantified so far, essentially because they are not readily observable. Here we exploit the functional form of power law-like regimes in top tail wealth to derive analytical expressions for these biases, and use German microdata from a popular survey and rich list to illustrate that tiny differences in non-response rates lead to tail wealth estimates that differ by an order of magnitude, in our case ranging from 1 to 9 trillion euros. Underreporting seriously compounds the problem, and we find that the estimation of totals in scale-free systems oftentimes tends to be spurious. Our findings also suggest that recent debates on the existence of scale- or type-dependence in returns to wealth are ill-posed because the available data cannot discriminate between scale- or type-dependence, on one hand, and statistical biases, on the other hand. Yet both economic theory and mathematical formalism indicate that sampling and reporting biases are more plausible explanations for the observed data than scale- or type-dependence.     

顺北1号断裂带洞穴型储集体地震表征方法

顺北油气田1号断裂带奥陶系储层为碳酸盐岩断控缝洞型储集体，储集体在三维空间内差异较大，非均质性极强。1号断裂带以串珠地震反射特征为主，实钻证实储集体以洞穴为主，常规的波阻抗反演方法在刻画洞顶具有很好的效果，但是在刻画洞底和洞的宽度误差较大，不能精准刻画出洞穴的外轮廓，钻井轨迹设计靶点会出现偏差，钻进过程中不发生放空与漏失，需要酸压完井，增加完井成本的同时还有可能打出失利井，因此对该类储集体的有效识别和精细表征是油田增储上产的关键。基于正演模拟，针对串珠反射储集体开展了地震表征方法探索与地震属性敏感分析；对于串珠反射特征的洞穴型储集体，利用微分振幅与瞬时能量融合属性能够较好刻画顺北1号断裂带洞穴的顶底及宽度。实际资料的预测结果与实钻井特征吻合程度高，预测与实钻吻合率达89%，验证了顺北1号断裂带洞穴型储集体表征方法的可靠性。     

Credit risk pricing in a consumption-based equilibrium framework with incomplete accounting information

We present a consumption-based equilibrium framework for credit risk pricing based on the Epstein–Zin (EZ) preferences where the default time is modeled as the first hitting time of a default boundary and bond investors have imperfect/partial information about the firm value. The imperfect information is generated by the underlying observed state variables and a noisy observation process of the firm value. In addition, the consumption, the volatility, and the firm value process are modeled to follow affine diffusion processes. Using the EZ equilibrium solution as the pricing kernel, we provide an equivalent pricing measure to compute the prices of financial derivatives as discounted values of the future payoffs given the incomplete information. The price of a zero-coupon bond is represented in terms of the solutions of a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) and a deterministic PDE; the self-contained proofs are provided for both this representation and the well-posedness of the involved SPDE. Furthermore, this SPDE is numerically solved, which yields some insights into the relationship between the structure of the yield spreads and the model parameters.     

Epstein-Zin utility maximization on a random horizon

This paper solves the consumption-investment problem under Epstein-Zin preferences on a random horizon. In an incomplete market, we take the random horizon to be a stopping time adapted to the market filtration, generated by all observable, but not necessarily tradable, state processes. Contrary to prior studies, we do not impose any fixed upper bound for the random horizon, allowing for truly unbounded ones. Focusing on the empirically relevant case where the risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are both larger than one, we characterize the optimal consumption and investment strategies using backward stochastic differential equations with superlinear growth on unbounded random horizons. This characterization, compared with the classical fixed-horizon result, involves an additional stochastic process that serves to capture the randomness of the horizon. As demonstrated in two concrete examples, changing from a fixed horizon to a random one drastically alters the optimal strategies.