高校思想政治理论课教育教学实效性的三维分析

思想政治理论课教育教学的低效和无效问题，一直是高校思想政治教育工作者不懈探索的理论课题和现实问题。基于思想政治理论课教育教学的实效性内涵，本文从事实、价值、功能三个维度提出提高思想政治理论课教育教学实效性的可能性对策。     

多维监控体系提高电信行业BSS系统月结出账准确性

随着收入保障越来越受到电信运营商的重视，如何提高业务支撑系统（BSS）月结出账准确性，成为电信运营商重要的课题。多维监控体系是解决这一难题的重要方案，多维监控体系由多个监控维度组成，每个监控维度对应不同的业务监控规则。通过业务监控规则，我们可以很好的检测出错误数据并预先进行修正，经所有维度监控规则过滤后，绝大部分的错误数据都已经得到校正，有效提高BSS系统月结出账准确性。     

交易主体同质效应对债券定价的影响

同质效应是市场主体类别差异化程度低、风格与行为趋同等所产生的，明显呈现为基金类、银行类、保险类三类机构同质行为，并分别对收益率曲线的短期、中期、长期段进行了控制。同质效应产生的分割影响是负面的，使市场的有效性减弱，不利于价格发行机制的形成。文章提出了同质效应的概念并阐述了其内在涵义，并分别运用统计实证的方法证明了在债券发行市场和流通市场中存在的自发分割行为。提高债券市场的市场化程度是缓解和消除同质效应最好的对策。     

HEATH–JARROW–MORTON INTEREST RATE DYNAMICS AND APPROXIMATELY CONSISTENT FORWARD RATE CURVES

We study a finite-dimensional approach to the Heath–Jarrow–Morton model for interest rate and introduce a notion of approximate consistency for a family of functions in a deterministic and stochastic framework. This amounts to asking the decrease of the minimum distance in least squares sense. We start from a general linearly parameterized set of functions and extend the theory to a nonlinear Nelson–Siegel family. Necessary and sufficient condition to have approximately consistency are given as well as a criterion of stability for the approximation.     

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

国有粮食企业购销的空间协同研究

本文借鉴协同学关于系统协同度的计算方法,界定了空间系统协同度的概念。运用三维灰色关联分析方法,结合2005—2011年三维时空数据,分析了中国各地区国有粮食企业粮食购销的空间协同度,并与系统协同度计算结果进行了比较。结果表明,中国各地区国有粮食企业购销的空间协同度差异较大,主产区国有粮食企业购销空间协同度较高;基于三维灰色关联方法和基于协同学方法计算的空间协同度结果基本一致。最后,提出的具体建议包括充分发挥国有粮食企业的粮食收购潜力,增强主产区国有粮食企业的销售能力等。     

民族生态旅游接待村多维价值的研究--以香格里拉霞给村为例

根据景观生态学的基本原理,将民族生态旅游接待村构建为一个景观生态系统,从系统中的游客、村民和村寨三个方面来审视,发现生态旅游接待村具有不同的多维价值：予游客具有“真品”旅游价值;予村民具有脱贫的经济价值;予村寨具有民族传统文化传承和生态环境保护的社会和生态价值。三个价值的同时实现是民族村寨可持续发展的保证。云南省迪庆藏族自治州香格里拉县霞给藏族家庭接待村的实际案例也证实了这一认识的正确性。     

The impact of customer-to-customer interaction and customer homogeneity on customer satisfaction in tourism service—The service encounter prospective

Customer satisfaction has been an important topic in tourism service management. Many researchers have argued that customer-to-customer interaction may affect customers’ evaluation of the service experience. Consequently, the objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between customer-to-customer interaction, customer homogeneity and customer satisfaction. This research adopted questionnaires to investigate tourists traveling to foreign areas from Taiwan. In conclusion, the perception of customer-to-customer interaction incidents could be extracted into six factors, including protocol and sociable incidents, violent incidents, grungy incidents, malcontent incidents, crude incidents, and inconsiderate incidents. The results of the analysis indicate that “protocol and sociable incidents” have a significantly positive impact on the “evaluation of fellow customers”. However, “malcontent incidents” have a significantly negative impact on customer satisfaction. “Marital homogeneity” has a positive influence on the “evaluation of fellow customers”. Finally, “evaluation of fellow customers” has a positive influence on customer satisfaction. Some suggestions for practitioners to manage customer compatibility and enhance customer satisfaction are proposed.     

一种设计最佳FSK/PSK雷达信号的方法

进入2005年以来,我国外贸出口的非理性竞争状态日趋严重,面对日益增多的国际市场对华反倾销案件的上升,我国除了加快外贸体制的改革外,还应通过尽快建立完善的外贸出口预警机制,帮助外贸出口企业有效地改善目前非理性贸易行为产生的交易风险,实现以效益为导向的出口模式。     

企业家三维关系网络与企业成长研究——基于珠三角私营企业的实证

在中国传统文化背景下和经济转型期中,企业家关系网络对私营企业成长的影响一直是理论界和实践界所关注的热点问题。本研究将企业家关系网络划分为三个维度:代表企业间关系的企业家外部横向关系网络、代表企业与政府关系的企业家外部纵向关系网络和代表企业家对企业运营控制的企业家内部纵向关系网络:研究发现.企业家关系网络的三个维度均显著正向影响企业成长,其中外部横向关系网络影响最大.外部纵向关系网络次之。内部纵向关系网络影响最小却也是不可忽视的因素。