Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks: Evidence from a flood in Thailand

This paper explores the firm-level impact of the 2011 flooding in Thailand, specifically, the impact on procurement patterns at Japanese affiliates in Thailand. We find that, first, small firms are more likely to lower their local procurement share, especially their share of procurement from other Japanese-owned firms in Thailand. Second, young firms are more likely to increase their share of imports from Japan, whereas old firms are more likely to look to China. Third, there is no impact on imports from ASEAN and other countries. These findings are useful for uncovering how multinationals adjust their production networks before and after natural disasters.     

Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi

This article uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker's decision to make a long‐term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks have a negative association with rural out‐migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability and drought probability are lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the consumption of recent migrants than on the consumption of long‐time residents.     

论自然灾害应急物流管理体系的构建

中国是世界上受自然灾害影响非常严重的国家之一,应急物流是救灾应急管理中必不可少的内容和环节.自然灾害应急物流管理体系,是为了实现在突发自然灾害环境下对应急物资、人员、信息和财产等进行有效组织和保障而建立的综合管理体系.文章根据我国目前突发自然灾害应急物流的实际情况,以自然灾害应急物流管理体系为研究对象,对自然灾害背景下应急物流管理体系的构建进行了研究,同时还提出了促进应急物流管理体系建设的一些建议.     

广西中小河流治理初探

广西境内降雨量充沛,中小河流众多,加上中小河流水资源和水电的过度、无序开发以及污染物排放量的大量增加等原因,使中小河流洪水灾害造成的损失逐渐成为广西洪涝灾害损失的主体,而且中小河流存在着水污染加剧,河流生态环境遭到破坏,水资源短缺等一系列问题,严重威胁河流的健康生命。笔者结合工作实践,在分析广西中小河流灾害特点和存在主要问题的基础上,提出中小河流治理的原则,探讨广西中小河流的治理措施。     

自然灾害的影响分析及其应对措施

我国是世界上自然灾害发生最频繁、灾害损失最大的少数国家之一,而且随着社会经济的发展和人类活动的增强,自然灾害的损失还在以更快的速度增长,其产生的负面影响也不断扩大。因此正确认识自然灾害以及对自然灾害应对措施进行积极有效的实施显得意义重大。     

我国粮食综合生产能力的实证研究

文章运用1983～2005年我国粮食生产的有关数据,选取粮食播种面积和粮食单产这两个最主要的指标对我国粮食综合生产能力进行分析,认为我国粮食生产仍处于规模收益递增阶段,单产是影响我国粮食综合生产能力最主要的因素,其次是粮食播种面积,农业的抗灾能力对粮食生产的影响不显著.因此,提高我国粮食综合生产能力最根本的途径是加大对粮食生产的投入,依靠科技提高单产水平,提高粮食复种指数,同时加强农业抗灾能力建设.     

基于低温雨雪冰冻灾害的农业损失分析与防灾避灾对策

2008年1月中下旬发生在我国南方大部分地区的低温雨雪冰冻天气,是我国近50年来极为罕见的一次大范围极端气象灾害,给灾区农业产业的生产经营造成了较大的影响和巨大的损失,值得总结与深思.本文就此分析了此次灾害对农业产业的不利影响,提出了应对农业重大自然灾害的防灾避灾对策.     

Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters

This article proposes a theoretical framework to investigate economic robustness to exogenous shocks such as natural disasters. It is based on a dynamic model that represents a regional economy as a network of production units through the disaggregation of sector-scale input-output tables. Results suggest that disaster-related output losses depend on direct losses heterogeneity and on the economic network structure. Two aggregate indexes - concentration and clustering - appear as important drivers of economic robustness, offering opportunities for robustness-enhancing strategies. Modern industrial organization seems to reduce short-term robustness in a trade-off against higher efficiency in normal times.     

General equilibrium pricing of options with habit formation and event risks

This paper proposes a general equilibrium model that explains the pricing of the S&P 500 index options. The central ingredients are a peso component in the consumption growth rate and the time-varying risk aversion induced by habit formation which amplifies consumption shocks. The amplifying effect generates the excess volatility and a large jump-risk premium which combine to produce a pronounced volatility smirk for index options. The time-varying volatility and jump-risk premiums explain the observed state-dependent smirk patterns. Besides volatility smirks, the model has a variety of other implications which are broadly consistent with the aggregate stock and option market data.     

农业自然灾害对通货膨胀的影响——基于动态面板的实证分析

通过将农业自然灾害作为外生冲击引入"三角"模型,建立涵盖通货膨胀惯性、超额需求和农业自然灾害外生冲击三者关系的动态面板模型进行实证分析,结果表明:就全国范围和中部地区而言,农业自然灾害对我国通货膨胀具有明显的影响,而东部和西部地区表现不显著。值得关注的是,农业自然灾害会造成当期通货膨胀水平下降,表明农业自然灾害造成的需求负向冲击大于供给负向冲击,政府相关部门应重视农业自然灾害引起的需求抑制作用。