岩溶地区的工程地质勘察方法探讨

根据多年的工程实践与学习研究,对目前我国岩溶地区主要的岩土工程勘察分析方法及探测技术进行了探讨,并对各种相应的勘察技术方法的适用范围和特点作了分析。文章结合岩溶补给区、径流区、排泄区的水文地质条件和岩溶发育特点的不同,并结合工程实例介绍岩溶补给区、径流区和排泄区的普遍工程地质勘察方法。     

The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia

In 1993, Czechoslovakia experienced a two-step breakup. On January 1, the country disintegrated as a political union, while preserving an economic and monetary union. Then, the Czech–Slovak monetary union collapsed on February 8. This paper analyzes the economic background of the two breakups from the perspective of the optimum currency area literature. The main finding is that the Czech and Slovak economies were vulnerable to asymmetric economic shocks, such as those induced by the economic transition. In particular, the stability of Czechoslovakia was undermined by the low correlation of permanent output shocks, low labor mobility, and higher concentration of heavy and military industries in Slovakia. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 753–781. Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany, and Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, Netherlands; Academia Istropolitana Nova, Bratislava, Slovakia, Central European University, Nador u. 9, 1051 Budapest, Hungary, and Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Stumpergasse 56, 1060 Vienna, Austria.     

最优货币区视角下的中国货币政策区域效应分析

基于最优货币区理论,中国还不是最优货币区.按照外贸依存度和人均CDP把中国经济区域分为A、B、C三个区域,采用向量自回归模型(VAR)和脉冲响应函数(IRF)定量检验得出,中国确实存在货币政策的区域效应.从货币政策传导机制的角度来看,汇率渠道是产生货币政策区域效应的主要原因,利率渠道对货币政策区域效应的解释力不强.     

农村税费改革与民主财政建设研究

中国农村税费改革的持续性须以民主财政的建设为后盾.这也是由民主财政的基本内涵和理论所决定的.通过考察西方民主财政的建立过程,我们可以得到很重要的启示.我国的民主财政建设包括两个方面的内容:一方面是通过建立有效的民主决策监督机制,实现纳税人对政府的根本约束和监督;另一方面是规范政府间的财政分配关系,抑制政府间的过分自利倾向,实现政府间的合理分权与制衡.     

农村家庭养老问题探析——以福建省为例

第六次全国人口普查结果显示,我国农村人口老龄化进一步加剧,家庭结构日益缩减,人口流动速度加快,加之城市化进程加快对农村社会经济文化的冲击,使得农村家庭养老面临着一系列问题与挑战。本文以福建省为例,通过分析福建省农村家庭养老现状,找出其中存在的问题,分析这些问题背后的成因,为今后加强和巩固农村家庭养老地位提供一些思考。     

陕西省主体功能区政府绩效评价研究

本文构建了基于熵权分析和灰色关联分析相结合的地方政府绩效评估模型,并通过实证研究论证了该方法的实用性和可操作性较好,为以后政府绩效评价工作提供了一种新的思路。     

家庭子女的教育投入与亲代的养老回报——来自河北农村的调查发现

利用2008年河北农村家庭生命周期与代际关系调查数据,分析当前河北农村60岁及以上老年人子女的教育投入与老年人获取的来自子女的养老回报的影响因素。河北农村老年人子女的受教育程度多为小学、初中水平,且存在性别、年龄别和地区差异。来自子女教育投入的养老回报主要体现在经济支持方面,子女受教育程度越高,对父母的经济支持越大。父母对子女的教育投入越多得到的回报越高,体现了家庭中亲子抚养与赡养关系具有一定的互惠交换特征。     

An Evaluation on the Effects of the Policy of the Great Campaign of Western Development of China in the First 10 Years Based on the Kuznets Regional Inverted-U Theory

In order to reduce the regional differentials or narrow the gap in economic development between eastern and western areas and prevent the intensification of contradictions resulting from the regional inequality during the development process, the government of China launched the Great Campaign of Western Development （GCWD） in 2000. In this paper, we will evaluate the effects of the first 10 years＇ GCWD and use the latest Chinese annual data from 1978 to 2010 to investigate the problem of regional differentials in the development process, evaluate the effects of GCWD policy and test whether there is a regional Kuznets inverted-U curve in the regional development of China. The result shows that there are both good and bad news： the good news is that the inverted U-shaped curve of absolute differential between eastern and western areas finally emerges （the previous studies showed that the inverted-U curve did not appear and the differentials between eastern and western areas became worse） and the bad news is that the differential is in the first half of the inverted U-shaped curve in our choice of time span （1978-2010）, that is, it is still in the situation of deterioration, and the turning better point will emerge in 2025. Although the western areas have benefitted from GCWD, the absolute gap has been still widened. To narrow the gap, the western areas should accelerate the industrial development and the government should adjust the policy and make more efforts to support the development of the industry in the western areas, especially cultivate and support the development of the western characteristic and advantageous industry rather than just supporting the construction of infrastructure in the western areas.     

Attaining Sustainable Farm Management Systems in Semi-Arid Areas in Kenya: Few Technical Options,Many Policy Challenges

Soils in arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) are fragile, low in fertility and susceptible to erosion and leaching. To address these problems, activities were implemented in 1998–2003 to identify current problems, and design, test, implement, demonstrate and disseminate improved, integrated soil fertility management techniques. Current soil fertility management results in slightly negative nutrient balances, especially for phosphorus and potassium. Recycling of nutrients through crop residues and animal manure is inefficient, with evidently high losses. Due to the relatively high price of fertilisers and the high risks of crop failure, use of mineral fertilisers is restricted to market-oriented farms with access to irrigation facilities. Of the total farm household population, 35–85% lives below the poverty line. Applying higher rates of Farm Yard Manure (FYM) and/or fertilisers is unattractive and risky. Combinations of FYM and fertilisers give better financial returns than either of the two alone. Where irrigation is available, farmers adopt innovative farming systems that include higher application of mineral and organic fertilisers, and result in higher and more stable yields and higher financial returns. A set of specific policy measures for the semi-arid areas were identified to arrive at necessary changes in the economic environment, leading to a wider range of financially attractive technology options for smallholders.     

我国农村商业养老保险市场研究——基于养老金替代率的精算分析

农村养老保险制度的建立为解决农村居民的养老问题指明了方向,但新农保基本保障制度并不能提供较好的养老保障水平.随着农村居民生活水平的逐步提高,商业养老保险为提高养老金替代率提供了较好的补充作用.农村（商业保险）市场的巨大消费潜力和目前发展的滞后形成极大差异,探究制约其发展的原因变得尤为紧迫.本文从商业养老保险补充新农保替代率的角度出发,在不同目标替代率下农村商业养老保险的潜在市场规模做出了估计,最后提出一些发展农村商业养老保险市场的意见.