经济密集地区FDI空间溢出效应分析——以长三角16城市为例

本文通过建立动态空间计量模型,利用1990—2009年的面板数据研究了中国经济密集区长三角16城市的FDI空间溢出效应,结果发现,FDI不但存在地区内溢出,同时也发生了地区间溢出,且从动态上来看,地区间溢出由前期(1990—2001)的不显著到后期(2002—2009)的显著并高于地区间的影响。这表明一城市的FDI不仅是本地区生产发展的重要因素,同时也是推动其他(周边邻域)城市生产率提高的重要力量,而且后者在经济密集区的重要性有增强趋势。研究还表明,长三角城市经济增长模式支持内生增长理论的"干中学"观点并具有空间依赖性特征。文末讨论了主要结果的政策启示。     

价值范畴的历史性

以人类一般劳动为实体的价值范畴是纯粹的社会范畴,是特定历史阶段物化劳动交换的产物。以目的性设定的劳动在人与自然和人与人两个方向上的作用造成了自然限制退缩和社会性的日益增强。价值规律是个人目的性选择行为的集合,使个人选择保持一种客观性和独立性,但这种独立性又是建立在个体目的性选择行为基础上的。这种内在张力造成了在必然王国彼岸的自由王国的出现。价值规律万岁论和效用价值论都否定了价值范畴的历史性,从而褫夺了价值范畴在经济发展阶段论中的基础地位。     

要素禀赋结构、技术选择与中国城市现代产业发展

本文基于地理加权回归(GWR)模型对我国286个城市现代产业的发展格局进行了考察。研究发现,我国城市现代产业发展的格局与区域经济格局高度吻合,并且区域内发展差异小于区域间差异。通过三种常用空间权重及技术选择指数TCI的实证研究发现,总体上,我国城市的要素禀赋结构在很大程度上决定了其技术选择,进而对其现代产业的发展绩效产生显著影响。多数城市选择了偏离比较优势的现代产业发展政策,而这种政策的偏离程度和所负担的政策成本在四大区域间不尽一致,这是值得高度关注的问题。对于城市政府而言,在现代产业发展决策及相关政策制定方面,如何促进要素禀赋结构升级比直接"培育"现代产业更为重要。     

山东省农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联关系研究

农业科技投入是推动农业科技进步,促进农业经济增长的重要保障。文章以山东省为例,全面系统研究了农业科技投入的问题,并利用分布滞后模型分析了农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联关系。研究表明,农业科技投入已成为推动农业经济增长的重要因素,但其对农业经济增长的贡献还存在滞后反应,二者未形成长期稳定的动态均衡关系。为此,结合农业科技投入的现存问题,下一步应继续加大农业科技投入,提高农业科技投入的效率,使二者形成互为促进的良好循环机制。     

伙伴型政府间关系：中国府际治理的趋向

我国当前政府间关系因条块纷争、城乡矛盾而呈现失序状态,中央部委、地方政府及其部门之间政策冲突屡屡发生。从法治环境、协商民主、信息共享、多方参与、平等信任角度解析,可见建构伙伴型府际关系的必要。伙伴型政府间关系尊重地方政府的选择,避免采取自上而下的强令措施,注重跨区域跨流域跨部门的政府间合作,意图建立政府间超越等级、定位清晰、平等对话、合作共赢的政策网络,为我国的政府间关系发展及政策制定提供路径指向。     

人民币国际化问题探讨

文章首先诠释了货币国际化的含义、衡量标准及决定因素,接着分析了人民币国际化的现状、进程及利弊;最后,根据当前的国际政治、经济、文化格局及货币国际化模式选择,认为人民币国际化将是一个漫长的过程,我国应采取渐进式的人民币国际化路径,在地域扩张、货币职能、演进历程上分别采取"三步走"的发展战略。     

预算约束与金融制度选择的新理论:文献述评

本文的考察发现,在预算约束与金融制度结构之间存在着十分紧密的逻辑联系,而且国内外不少文献已经围绕于此展开了广泛而深入的讨论。针对预算约束与金融制度选择的关系,现有文献的理论发现大致包括三个层面:第一,虽然缓解乃至消除软预算约束是任何一种金融体系共同面临的挑战,但软预算约束的消除并非一定有利于长期经济增长;第二,分权的或者集权的金融体制都具有"内生性",因此,至少在理论上无法对其进行孰优孰劣的直观评判,同时也无法在它们之间进行简单的复制和移植;第三,金融体系应对预算约束问题的能力要远弱于企业制度,因此,当一个国家面对预算约束问题时,应当首先着手改善微观经济基础的金融需求结构,而不是调整金融供给结构。     

Evaluating the potential of agent-based modelling to capture consumer grocery retail store choice behaviours

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making.     

文化旅游产业融合对文化消费的影响

党的十九大报告明确提出健全现代文化产业体系,创新生产经营机制,培育新型文化业态,推动文化事业和文化产业发展的新任务,文化产业部门正在着力推动我国文化产业与国民经济各产业的"跨界融合",从而推动文化业态创新和我国文化消费的转型升级。本文基于耦合协调度模型测算我国2005-2015年30个省市文化旅游产业的融合度水平,印证我国文化旅游新业态的成长与进步。动态面板模型的拟合结果显示我国文化旅游产业融合与文化消费之间存在着互为因果的关系,产业融合对文化消费水平的提升作用十分显著;文化旅游产业融合为市场提供了更复合、多元的供给品,满足了消费者日益升级的文化消费需求。因此,切实贯彻十九大报告精神,坚定文化自信,进一步完善政府职能,培育专业化的文化旅游产业人才,强化文化旅游产业投融资机制,依托文化产业融合带动文化消费的转型升级,是我国文化产业进一步发展的重要途径。     

An experimental investigation of the effect of TV cooking show consumption on children's food choice behaviour

For several decades, television consumption has been crucial in the complex web of factors underlying the obesity epidemic. It has been suggested that if television cooking shows would endorse healthy eating styles, they may have positive effects on consumers’ eating habits. This study empirically investigated the consequences of exposing children (N = 85, aged 9–12 years) to an existing television cooking show episode endorsing the consumption of fruits and vegetables compared with exposure to a non‐food‐related science show. The measures included pre‐test and post‐test attitudes toward health/nutrition and fruits/vegetables, as well as state preferences for a list of healthy and unhealthy foods. At the end of the study, children were separately given the choice between a popular cookie and a piece of fruit as a reward; this was used as a behavioural measure. The results of a logistic regression on the behavioural choice measure showed that the mere exposure to one episode of the television cooking show significantly increased the odds that the children would choose a piece of fruit over a cookie. Repeated‐measures analyses showed that watching this single episode also decreased children's state appetite for unhealthy foods. State appetites for healthy foods and attitudes toward health/nutrition or fruits/vegetables did not change after watching the television cooking show episode. In sum, existing television cooking shows that endorse healthy eating positively influence children's food consumption in the short term and may have the potential to be used as platforms for nutrition education.