Prediction of Individual Bond Prices via a Dynamic Bond Pricing Model: Application to Japanese Government Bond Price Data

In this paper, we propose a dynamic bond pricing model and report the usefulness of our bond pricing model based on analysis of Japanese Government bond price data. We extend the concept of the time dependent Markov (TDM) model proposed by Kariya and Tsuda (Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Vol. 1, pp. 1–20) to a dynamic model, which can obtain information for future bond prices. A main feature of the extended model is that the whole stochastic process of the random cash-flow discount functions of each individual bond has a time series structure. We express the dynamic structure for the models by using a Bayesian state space representation. The state space approach integrates cross-sectional and time series aspects of individual bond prices. From the empirical results, we find useful evidence that our model performs well for the prediction of the patterns of the term structure of the individual bond returns.     

The dynamics of product innovation and firm competences

This study examines how product innovation contributes to the renewal of the firm through its dynamic and reciprocal relation with the firm's competences. Field research in five high‐tech firms of varying age, size, and level of diversification is combined with analysis of existing theory to develop the findings of the study. Based on the notion that new products are created by linking competences relating to technologies and customers, a typology is derived that classifies new product projects based on whether a new product can draw on existing competences, or whether it requires competences the firm does not yet have. Following organizational learning theory, these options are conceptualized as exploitation and exploration. These organizational learning concepts are used to gain a dynamic and path‐dependent view of product innovation and firm development, and to reveal the unique nature and challenges of different types of product innovation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

牵引变电所动态无功谐波综合补偿装置设计与应用

分析我国电气化铁路供电系统存在的问题,对牵引变电所无功补偿与谐波治理的各种方案进行比较,提出一种有效的、性价比高的综合补偿方案。其成套装置由控制器、固定LC滤波装置、高压晶闸管阀组、电力电容器组成。通过在平关站的运行,表明该装置符合我国国情、路情,对综合治理牵引供电系统的问题有益且可行。     

人口城镇化与农产品流通产业效率时空耦合分析

人口城镇化快速发展为农产品流通产业效率提升注入了活力,而农产品流通产业效率提升也为人口城镇化快速发展提供了支持,两者在时间和空间上的耦合水平会对区域经济发展质量产生影响。利用DEA-Malquist和耦合度模型系统对2009—2019年中国31个省份农产品流通产业的全要素生产率变化及其分解、技术效率以及人口城镇化水平的耦合度进行了研究。结果显示:农产品流通产业技术效率低和人口城镇化快速发展是同时存在的;农产品流通产业全要素生长率增长是技术进步驱动的,而非技术效率驱动的;农产品流通产业效率提升和人口城镇化在时间和空间上的耦合度呈现出从低水平向高水平发展的轮动趋势,在不同区域之间具有显著差异。在耦合度较低的区域,应最大化发挥城市溢出效应,全面提升农产品流通产业技术效率;在耦合度较高的区域,要积极促进城镇化发展,加强与电子商务融合,全面优化农产品流通各个环节。     

重庆市主城区居住用地时空演变特征分析

基于1986、1995、2000及2007年的居住用地数据,应用GIS空间分析、动态度模型分析方法研究重庆市主城区居住用地的时空演变特征。研究显示:1995-2000年间,年均扩展规模和年变化率都大于1986-1995年和2000-2007年两个时期,各个时期中渝北区扩展规模均最大;在年变化率方面,除2000-2007年大渡口区年变化率大于渝北区外,其余各时期渝北区均最大,渝中区年变化率在各时期中均最小。在整个研究时段,主城区居住用地扩张比较分散,各区域均有大规模的增加,但是,分散中也有扩张方向相对集中的区域,主城区东北方向即渝北区,和其他区域相比,扩张方向明显,规模大。     

江苏省产业集群发展特色及动力机制研究

产业集群化发展是现代经济的重要表现,而产业集群的特色则是保持和增强产业集群竞争力的关键。产业集群发展的动力既出自内部,也源于外部,核心是其动力机制。本文通过对产业集群及其动力机制相关理论的研究,概括了江苏省产业集群的发展类型与特色,并对其产业集群发展的内源和外源动力作用机制进行了分类探讨,旨在为促进产业集群的持续健康发展提供一定的参考依据。     

THE DYNAMICS OF THE LIABILITY OF FOREIGNNESS: A GLOBAL STUDY OF SURVIVAL IN FINANCIAL SERVICES

We study the impact of ‘foreignness’ on survival in interbank currency trading worldwide over the period 1974–93. In particular, we develop hypotheses on the behavior of the liability of foreignness over time, and on the consequences of evolving sources of firm-level competitive advantage on this liability. We test these hypotheses on the population of 2667 market-making trading rooms located in 47 countries worldwide that either existed in 1974 or entered the industry between 1974 and 1993. The results show that there is a liability of foreignness, and that it changes over time. Further, strategic and organizational factors such as the adoption of technology by these firms and their mode of internal control significantly influenced survival, as did location-related factors such as the intensity of local and foreign competition. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从过度投资到产能过剩:理论与经验证据

过度投资与产能过剩是长期困扰中国经济发展的严峻问题,然而现有研究往往笼统地将二者视为一体。实际中,过度投资与产能过剩分别指向企业投资生产过程中的不同决策阶段,前者与需先行做出的长期投资决策有关,而后者则是后发的即期生产决策的结果。通过引入一个包含投资和生产两阶段的动态实物期权模型,尝试性地刻画从过度投资到产能过剩的形成机制,以及经济与政策这两种异质不确定性对这一形成机制的影响,进一步基于2003-2018年中国企业的微观数据进行了实证检验。理论与实证结果表明:(1)尽管产能过剩总是源自前期投资的过度扩张,但并不是所有的过度投资最终都会导致产能过剩;(2)不确定性是导致过度投资与产能过剩的重要因素,但过度投资更多地源于政策不确定性,而产能过剩则主要源于经济不确定性;(3)不确定性对产能过剩的影响要强于对过度投资的影响。因此,对过度投资的治理应以政策不确定性为主,保持政策调节的稳定性和连续性;对产能过剩的治理则应以经济不确定性为主,维护市场运行体系的稳定性。     

制度环境、激励结构与垄断行业收入规范

文章将转轨经济条件下制度及经济环境随机变动的因素引入分析中,并将收入合同作为管制者与经营者之间策略互动的一个内生结果。特定制度环境导致的垄断厂商经营者面临不确定性的扩大以及国有产权下管制者与经营者贴现因子的差异使我国垄断行业厂商经营者有更大的动力攫取制度设计中的信息租金。认为在垄断性行业改革中更多的强调绩效考核及引入专家式监管对我国垄断性行业收入规范改革有着重要的作用。