系统动力学视角下城市群绿色低碳路径研究

碳达峰和碳中和的提出对城市群发展提出新的要求,城市群高速发展与环境问题间的矛盾日益加剧,绿色低碳发展路径亟待研究.以京津冀城市群为研究对象,在梳理城市群发展影响因素的基础上,分析城市群循环系统构成中要素间的关联关系,并通过量化模型,搭建基于系统动力学的城市群绿色低碳发展系统;重点从经济、能源、环境和城市聚合4个角度构建仿真系统,建立要素间量化函数,设定基本场景,以2010—2019年数据为基础,对系统进行仿真运行.算例结果表明,构建的仿真系统通过了检验,拟合程度较好;通过设计不同场景,验证相关参数变化时对系统运行的影响程度,发现综合场景对未来系统运行效益最佳,兼顾了经济发展与碳减排问题,能够促进城市向群绿色低碳发展.     

创新投入对区域科技创新能力的影响研究——以江苏省为例

采用系统动力学方法,围绕政府、高校与企业3个主体构建系统动力学模型,探究不同因素对于江苏省科技创新能力的影响程度。结果显示：政府长期的科技支出与教育支出均能够促进江苏省科技创新水平的提升,但短期内加大教育支出并不能立竿见影;适当增加高校在校生人数有利于促进区域内发明专利的产出,提升江苏省科技创新水平;企业可适当加大对企业内部的R&D经费投入,促进企业创新性成果的产出,进而提升区域创新能力。     

Institutional dynamics and access to non-farm employment in rural China, 1950–1996

This article examines non-farm employment in the context of Chinese rural institutional change, based on evidence from discrete-time logistic models for event history analysis using the Life History and Social Change survey. We find the transition to non-farm sector rose rapidly during the Great Leap Forward and market reform, while the Cultural Revolution saw it reach the lowest ebb. While male advantage prevailed exclusively during the Cultural Revolution and early marketization, education possessed a stable positive effect in all historical periods. Although the returns to different kinds of political capital vary along with institutional dynamics, intergenerational reproduction was greatly reduced after the Cultural Revolution.     

Evidence of short-term household change in South Africa from the National Income Dynamics Study

We use longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study to document the extent of recent short-term residential and household compositional change in South Africa. We analyse the demographic correlates of these transitions, including population group, age, urban/rural status, and income. We examine educational and labour-market transitions among movers and the prevalence of the four major types of compositional change – births, addition of joiners, deaths, and loss of leavers. We find that short-term household change is prevalent in South Africa. During a two-year period from 2008 to 2010, 10.5% of South Africans moved residence and 61.3% experienced change in household composition. We find that moving is more common among blacks and whites, very young children, young adults, urban individuals, and those with higher incomes. Among non-movers, compositional change is more likely for blacks and coloureds, young adults and children, females, urban individuals, and individuals with lower incomes.     

数字技术驱动的第三方供应链金融商业模式创新研究:基于生态租金视角

以“金融+科技+场景”为导向的供应链金融转型推动了第三方供应链金融商业模式的创新。从生态租金视角研究了第三方供应链金融商业模式创新,根据第三方供应链金融共生系统商业模式创新逻辑,将第三方供应链金融共生系统中生态租金区分为4类:通过异质性资源和能力获取李嘉图租金;通过动态创新能力获取熊彼特租金;通过关系资产获取关系租金;通过市场势力获取张伯伦租金。在分析不同类型生态租金形成机理和路径的基础上,结合第三方供应链金融共生系统发展演化的不同阶段,揭示共生系统不同租金的演化规律及其特征。最后,基于第三方供应链金融典型案例,构建系统动力学模型,对第三方供应链金融共生系统演化过程中生态租金理论演绎进行仿真验证。     

基于SD模型的装配式建筑供应链脆弱性研究

装配式建筑供应链的运作存在很多不确定性。为提高供应链管理效率,促进建筑业的发展,运用供应链运作参考(SCOR)模型对装配式建筑供应链脆弱因子进行识别,将装配式供应链系统划分为6个子系统;通过系统动力学（SD）模型对供应链脆弱性进行仿真。结果表明,装配制造流程是脆弱性最大的子系统,整个供应链的脆弱性随着建筑项目的推进而增大。     

产品市场竞争动态与公司财务保守行为:实证研究述评

得益于产业组织理论与资本结构理论的交叉渗透,企业融资管理更加强调财务灵活性,即须基于产品市场竞争动态、公司战略、公司治理结构以及资本市场环境等因素进行综合权衡,财务保守由此作为一种能够适应企业当前情况及未来投资机会的投融资战略选择行为,而在当代资本结构研究中颇受关注。文章基于资本市场时机、行业竞争、公司治理结构及债务契约分析等四个视角对产品市场竞争与公司财务保守行为关系的经验研究予以述评。     

有限理性条件下民营企业资源配置欠优的机理研究

以浙江民营企业为例,借鉴有限理性博弃的相关理论,本文建立了有限理性条件下我国民营企业资源配置协调博弃的快速学习模型和复制动态进化模型;详细分析了存在理性局限的情况下,民营企业资源配置策略结果偏离最优状态的机理,并指出改善这种欠优资源配置策略的可能途径.     

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov‐switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992–2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre‐1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre‐1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.     

Education and growth: A simple model with complicated dynamics

We construct a simple model of education and growth in which children spend a fraction of their time and parents spend a fraction of their income on education. Both a strategic complementarity and an intergenerational externality are present. The interactions between each pair of consecutive generations lead to rich dynamics. We show that multiple growth equilibria arise, some of them periodic and some aperiodic. We also find a negative correlation between volatility and growth, without a one‐way causal relationship between the two being, necessarily, present. Rather, this negative correlation is driven by the structural characteristics of the economy.