The individual vs. the group? Individualization and collectivity among students in collaborative design

The various modes in which individuals relate to the collectivity of a group have been fruitfully explored in research on group dynamics. The present paper applies a phenomenological interview approach to understand how this dynamic relationship plays out among design students in a collaborative design situation. Through deep-interviews with the members of a temporary design group, a number of dimensions for this relationship were uncovered. These individual-group characteristics related to instrumentality of engagement, experience of ambivalence and threat and finally to the process of individualization in which the group enabled an individual “design self”. After having presented the theoretical underpinnings and the empirical results of this study, the paper ends with suggesting a synthesis perspective of the individual-group relation in collaborative design.     

Accounting based valuation models: what have we learned?

The present survey article formed the basis of a presentation by G. Richardson to the 8 July 2003 plenary session of the Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand Conference in Brisbane, Australia. The present article reconciles the historical and forecasting branches in the published accounting literature. Prior survey articles have primarily focused either on the historical branch or the forecasting branch. While these approaches have yielded useful insights, they do not attempt to synthesize the link between the two branches of the published literature. An obvious link between the two branches is that the Ohlson model begins with the Residual Income Model as an initial assumption. We believe that there are other links that need further emphasis. In the process, we also review the empirical issues and the evidence within these two branches. We know of no paper to date that has surveyed the empirical evidence on both the historical and forecasting branches of the published literature. In particular, we draw inferences on the following question: on balance, what have we learned from nearly a decade of research on accounting based valuation models and its applications?     

A General Affine Earnings Valuation Model

We introduce a methodology, with two applications, that incorporates stochastic interest rates, heteroskedasticity and risk aversion into the residual income model. In the first application, goodwill is an affine (constant plus linear term) function where the constant and linear coefficients are time-varying. Homoskedastic risk gives rise to a constant risk premium, while heteroskedastic risk gives rise to linear state-dependent risk premiums. In the second application, we present a class of models where a non-linear function for the price-to-book ratio can be derived. We show how interest rates, risk, profitability and growth affect the price-to-book ratio.     

Consistent Variance Curve Models

We introduce a general approach to model a joint market of stock price and a term structure of variance swaps in an HJM-type framework. In such a model, strongly volatility-dependent contracts can be priced and risk-managed in terms of the observed stock and variance swap prices. To this end, we introduce equity forward variance term structure models and derive the respective HJM-type arbitrage conditions. We then discuss finite-dimensional Markovian representations of the fixed time-to-maturity forward variance swap curve and derive consistency results for both the standard case and for variance curves with values in a Hilbert space. For the latter, our representation also ensures non-negativity of the process. We then give a few examples of such variance curve functionals and briefly discuss completeness and hedging in such models. As a further application, we show that the speed of mean reversion in some standard stochastic volatility models should be kept constant when the model is recalibrated.     

An empirical investigation of the two-factor Brennan-Schwartz term structure model

This paper studies the pricing behaviors of default-free bonds based on the two-factor model by Brennan and Schwartz (1979), where a short-term spot rate and a long-term consol rate are the state variables. The logarithm of these two factors is assumed to follow a linear transformation of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. An exact discrete time model is derived to estimate the parameters in the process. The model prices are then numerically solved. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the long-rate process, especially the long-rate volatility parameter, is important in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.     

Monetary Pressures and Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: Evidence from P-Star Model

This paper uses the P-star model to explain inflation dynamics in Turkey. In P-star models, money determines the price gap, which is postulated to measure the pressure on prices in an economy. This pressure emerges when output is above the potential, the interest rate is lower than the natural rate, or there is pure excess money in the economy. The estimation results with the Turkish data show that the price gap contains considerable information for explaining inflation dynamics. Moreover, the model selection criterion that compares the empirical performance of the P-star model with the new classical Phillips curve relation favors the P-star model over the Phillips curve relationship. We conclude that money is efficacious in predicting risk in price stability in Turkey.     

Stock price dynamics: nonlinear trend,volume, volatility,resistance and money supply

We present a methodology to study a data set of 119 260 daily closed-end fund prices using mixed-effects regressions with the objective of understanding price dynamics. There is strong statistical support that relative price change depends significantly on (i) the recent trend in a nonlinear manner, (ii) recent changes in valuation, (iii) recent changes in money supply (M2), (iv) longer-term trend, (v) recent volume changes and (vi) proximity to a recent high price. The dependence on the volatility is more subtle, as short-term volatility has a positive influence, while the longer term is negative. The cubic nonlinearity in the weighted price trend shows that a percentage daily gain of up to 2.78% tends to yield higher prices, but larger gains lead to lower prices. Thus, the nonlinearity of price trend establishes an empirical and quantitative basis for both underreaction and overreaction within one large data set, facilitating an understanding of these competing motivations in markets. Increasing money supply is found to have a significant positive effect on stock price, while proximity to recent high prices has a negative effect. The data set consists of daily prices during the period 26 October 1998 to 30 January 2008.     

环境动态性对企业绩效的作用机制研究——基于技术导向的中介效应

在高质量发展背景下,我国企业面临外部经济环境的不确定因素增多,所处的宏观政策环境和行业环境也趋于复杂、动态与不确定性。如何理解和运用技术导向型战略以适应竞争环境的动态性已成为企业实践中亟待解决的难题,也是学术研究的焦点。基于此,针对环境动态性、技术导向对企业绩效关系的研究问题,将三者纳入统一分析框架,构建技术导向在环境动态性与企业绩效间的中介效应模型,并通过结构方程模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,技术导向与企业绩效呈正相关,技术导向对环境动态性与企业绩效的关系有显著的中介效应。     

Strategy dynamics: Agency,path dependency,and self‐organized emergence

Analysis of a 42‐year strategic journey at a large multinational firm exposes the dynamics behind its strategic evolution. Grounded on a complexity science paradigm, this article challenges our understanding of the role of agency in strategic timing while adding conceptual and methodological innovations. Based on micro and macro approaches, qualitative interpretations, and econometric studies, the results tend to show that while agency partly produces strategy dynamics and timing of actions, strategic evolution (when not random) is largely emergent and driven by its past. These findings move the understanding of strategic evolution and timing away from a strategic choice perspective and toward a complex combination of agency, causal determinism, and self‐organization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人口城镇化对中国粮食消费的影响测度

构建系统动力学模型,测度人口城镇化对我国粮食消费产生的影响。结果表明：人口城镇化有利于减少直接用粮,但提高了间接用粮,总体上增加了粮食消费;直接用粮的未来自给形势较为乐观,而间接用粮缺口将会长期存在。为此,应推进农业供给侧结构性改革,完善粮食节约机制,合理利用国际粮食市场,以应对人口城镇化所带来的粮食消费影响。