Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

现代企业财务风险的测定和防范

在市场竞争环境下，现代企业面临的各种风险不断增多，财务风险作为企业特有的风险日益突出，是企业利用融资财务杠杆的直接后果，企业必须重视财务风险的测定和防范，以增强企业财务实力。     

Efficient Markets Hypothesis and the Emerging Capital Market in Sri Lanka: Evidence from the Colombo Stock Exchange – A Note

The behaviour of stock prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) is examined with a view to determine its consistency with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH). Runs, Autocorrelation and Cointegration tests are applied to daily, weekly and monthly CSE index data for the period of January 1991–November 1996. Results of Runs, Correlation and Cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the serial independence hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the behaviour of stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange is not consistent with the weak form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Tests of the-day-of-the-week-effect, however, show that there is no evidence of such a phenomenon on the Colombo Stock Exchange stock prices. Results of the tests of the-month-of-the-year-effect lead to the conclusion that CSE prices do not display any month-specific behaviour.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

论科研选题应注意的几个问题

科研选题要善于把握选题的原别和导向，注意课题的研究动态，把握课题的研究范围，发挥出科研人员的优势，设计出切实可行的研究路线。     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

生态文化旅游的价值评价研究

旅游业已经成为现代经济增长一个新的亮点,特别是生态文化旅游的增长速度更是惊人,而其发展的价值平衡是生态学和经济学必须面对的一个难题。本文依据意大利经济学家帕累托的不均匀分布定律,运用埃奇渥斯盒状分析图,在某一选定的生态资源环境的承载量既定的基础上,从生态文化旅游的价值交换的角度考虑,并且从定性研究转向定量研究,分析研究生态文化旅游的价值帕累托最优曲线,用以筛选生态文化旅游的工程项目。     

商业银行资产负债结构与流动性风险控制

流动性风险产生的实质是由于资产、负债的不匹配所导致的。因此,合理调整资产负债结构,能有效地控制流动性风险。     

发展旅游业--新疆社会经济发展的必然选择

旅游是一种具有重大经济与文化意义的活动,它的产生和发展紧随社会前进的步伐。近年来,随着人们收入的增长和消费水平的提高,节假日外出旅游成为时尚。目前,旅游业是我国的重要产业。在我国的很多地区,旅游业已成为增加经济收入、改善产业结构、提高人们的现代意识、推动区域经济和社会进步的重要产业。新疆地区少数民族众多、地域辽阔,加上历史文化悠久,孕育了丰富的自然旅游资源及人文旅游资源,在全国具有旅游资源的比较优势,因此发展旅游业必将带动新疆地区社会经济的全面发展。     

犯罪构成与刑事诉讼及人权保障

犯罪构成是刑法的核心概念。大陆法系与英美法系的犯罪构成与刑事诉讼紧密相连 ,在动态意义上发挥了保障人权的作用。我国的犯罪构成理论排除了“有责性”和“违法性”的查证 ,缺乏有效的保障、限制机制 ,有待进一步完善。