Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial sector is determined endogenously: Balance sheet constraints force banks to trade off insurance against funding outflows with loan scale. A financial crisis, simulated as an abrupt decline in the collateral value of bank assets, triggers a flight to liquidity, which strongly amplifies the initial shock and induces credit crunch dynamics sharing key features with the Great Recession. The paper thus develops a new balance sheet channel of shock transmission that works through the composition of banks’ asset portfolios.     

Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates the short-term overreaction to specific events and whether stock prices are predictable in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). We find evidence of the short-term overreaction in the EGX. Losers (“bad news” portfolios) significantly outperform winners (“good news” portfolios) and investors can earn abnormal return by selling the winners and buying losers. Terrorist attacks have negative and significant abnormal returns for three days post event followed by price reversals on day four post event. Whereas, the tensions in the Middle East region have a negative and significant abnormal returns on event day followed by price reversals on day one post event. Moreover, the formation of a new government has no effect on the average abnormal returns post event in the EGX. The results also show that small firms tend to have greater price reversals compared to large firms. Overall, our results provide evidence of the leakage of information in the EGX.     

Corporate Stock and Bond Return Correlations and Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure

This paper analyses the effects of dynamic correlations between stock and bond returns issued by the same firm on the speed of adjustment towards target leverage. The results show that the estimated correlations are time varying, show persistence and differ among firms. Analysis of the potential explanatory variables reveals that the correlations decrease with negative expectations about future aggregate risks, but only for firms with a low default probability. In contrast, correlations are positively associated with specific risk measures, especially idiosyncratic stock risk and financial leverage. The positive relationship between the correlations and the leverage ratio suggests that target leverage can be achieved faster when the stock–bond correlation is high. Our results show that this is the case.     

Stock liquidity and managerial short-termism

We examine whether stock liquidity exacerbates or mitigates managerial short-termism. Utilizing earnings management as a proxy for managerial short-termism, we establish three major findings. First, firms with liquid stocks engage in less accrual-based and real earnings management. Second, the effect of stock liquidity on earnings management is amplified for firms with high levels of managerial pay-for-performance sensitivity. Third, the positive association between the intensity of earnings management and firm cost of capital is evident only for firms with low stock liquidity. Our findings are consistent with the threat of blockholder exit as the main governance channel through which stock liquidity discourages opportunistic earnings management and mitigates managerial short-termism.     

What is the major determinant of cross-border banking flows?

This study examines the major determinant of cross-border credit flows through global banks across 70 countries. Employing a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model, we decompose volatilities of banking flows into the contribution of a global common factor, regional common factor, and country-specific factor. The results indicate that the global and regional common factor explains about 40–50 percent of volatility in overall cross-border banking flows. In particular, the contribution of the global common factor increased in the 2000s. Simultaneously, main determinants are largely heterogeneous across countries: this implies that the desirable policy response to credit inflows may differ for each host country.     

El efecto fin de mes en los principales mercados accionarios latinoamericanos

In equity markets, it is common to find calendar anomalies, which have been the subject of several studies in recent decades, even some of them showing that over time these anomalies have disappeared. In this context, this paper analyzes one of these anomalies, the end-of-the-month effect, in both return and volatility in six Latin American stock markets, namely Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina during the period of 1993-2011. The importance of the evidence for the existence of this anomaly is to allow testing whether the effect has been disappearing over time. The findings of this research show the existence of positive abnormal returns and abnormal volatilities on days associated with the change of months for most of the countries under analysis. This research was performed according to three different periods defined in the literature to analyze the impact of the end-of-the-month effect. This research not only examines the key indexes of each market, but also the individual stocks of each, giving a much larger and demanding sample, which can lead to better conclusions about the existence of the phenomenon. Also, the transaction volume analysis is included to validate some hypotheses related with the high cash flow in the turn-of-month period.     

Equity financing activities and European value-growth returns

This paper extends the U.S. evidence in Bali et al. (2010) to European stock markets. Like in the United States, European value-growth returns are strongly dependent on the valuation signals contained in the firm’s equity financing activities. The high returns of value firms are due to value purchasers, while the low returns of growth firms are due to growth issuers. Among value issuers and growth purchasers, there exists no value premium at all. The large return difference between value purchasers and growth issuers cannot be explained by common risk factors. However, employing Piotroski and So’s (2012) recently proposed market expectation errors approach shows that the observed value-growth returns can be attributed to mispricing.     

中小软件外包人力资本投资风险与控制策略研究

人力资本投资在服务外包总投资中占了最大比重,对软件外包企业来说更是如此.人力资本投资比重的增加给企业带来更大收益的同时也增加了企业的投资风险.目前,我国中小规模软件外包企业员工流动率高达20％,是社会平均流动率的两倍,形势严峻.本文力图突破传统的共性分析层面,从中小软件外包特性分析出发,探讨其人力资本投资风险的形成过程,并分别基于交易成本理论和期权理论提出控制人力资本投资风险的再外包和分阶段投资策略,为我国中小软件外包企业缓解高人力资本流失率,控制人力资本投资风险提供理论依据.     

基于期权定价理论的风险投资决策

项目评价的传统方法———净现值(NPV)法在应用于风险投资项目时,由于低估了投资价值,往往会使得投资者失去一些有价值的投资机会。结合风险投资的特性,将期权定价理论应用于风险投资决策中,并建立连续及离散两种状态下的决策模型     

我国低效资本市场的负面影响及应对策略

长期以来 ,以证券市场为代表的我国资本市场一直处于低效弱效状态 ,这一市场态势已成为当前提升我国金融体系国际竞争力、深化经济体制、社会保障改革与金融市场应对加入WTO的最大障碍。我们的社会各界特别是政府部门应在借鉴外国高效的资本市场监管基础上 ,从立法与政策上采取得力措施进一步完善市场参与主体约束机制 ,改进入市股权所有制成份结构 ,准许国有法人股入市流通 ,健全市场信息披露制度 ,充分发挥市场价值规律 ,形成内在的价格均衡机制 ,降低平均交易成本 ,增强投融资效率 ,从而提高我国的资本市场效率 ,为提高我国金融体系国际竞争力、深化经济体制、社会保障改革 ,为应对加入WTO后的金融环境扫清障碍。