货币危机理论综述

20世纪 90年代 ,在欧洲、拉美、东南亚以及其它地区发生的货币危机 ,引起了世界范围对货币投机攻击和固定汇率崩溃的关注。为了理解货币危机发生的原因和后果 ,研究人员进行了大量的理论和经验方面的研究工作。本文主要对有关货币危机理论文献进行较为详细的综述 ,为以后的研究提供一个平台。     

Banking with nominal deposits and inside money

Bank runs in the literature take the form of withdrawals of demand deposits payable in real goods, which deplete a fixed reserve of goods in the banking system. That framework describes traditional bank runs based on currency withdrawals as occurred historically in the US and more recently in developing countries. However, in a modern banking system, large withdrawals typically take the form of electronic payments of inside money, with no analog of a depletion of a scarce reserve from the banking system. In a new framework of nominal demand deposits repayable in inside money, pure liquidity-driven bank runs do not occur. If there were excessive early withdrawals, nominal deposits would hedge the bank and flexible monetary prices in the goods market would limit real consumption. The maturity mismatch of short term liabilities and long term assets is not sufficient for multiple equilibria bank runs without other frictions. A key role of the bank is to ensure optimal real liquidity, which allows markets to optimally distribute consumption goods through the price mechanism.     

MONEY,OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN AFRICAN ECONOMIES1

This paper examines the long‐run money‐inflation relation for 36 African countries using cross‐section and panel data analysis. The focus is on the recent claim by De Grauwe and Polan that the common finding in multi‐country studies of a strong positive link typically reflects the presence of high‐inflation countries in the sample and on Nelson's criticisms of the data and methodology employed in that study. Adjusting the De Grauwe and Polan methodology to take account of many of Nelson's criticisms, I confirm a weak long‐run relation between money growth and inflation for countries when money growth and inflation are below 10%, but a strong relation when money growth and inflation move much above that number. This result is not dependent on the inclusion of high inflation countries in the cross‐section and panel data samples.     

House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy

This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices,and economic activity in industrialized countries over the lastthree decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panelvector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17industrialized countries spanning the period 1970–2006.The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) Thereis evidence of a significant multidirectional link between houseprices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The linkbetween house prices and monetary variables is found to be strongerover a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effectsof shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger whenhouse prices are booming.     

制度如何激发社会合作--基于公共品博弈实验的前沿理论综述

公共品博弈作为刻画人类社会协调与合作这两个问题的基本模型,成为经济学、管理学、政治学、人类学等跨学科的研究热点和难点。通过分析引入激励制度的公共品博弈实验研究,比较奖和罚两种制度如何改变人们的信念并影响公共品合作供给行为。将已有公共品博弈实验研究分为外部激励和内部激励（决定赏罚规则、强度和执行方式的制度）、货币激励和非货币激励（道德劝说、训斥和社会排斥）,考察不同制度对于提升公共品合作供给水平的实际作用,特别是惩罚制度的社会净效率。在此基础上,述评已有研究成果的一般性结论和启示,展望有关个体偏好、社会合作和制度发育的理论和实证研究可能的创新。     

中国上中下游价格传导机制研究* ——基于细分行业数据的实证分析

本文通过运用动态贝叶斯网络模型分析方法,测算了2000-2014年上中下游价格指数及各细分行业价格指数之间的传导效应,并分析了货币供给因素对不同价格指数的驱动作用。结果表明,货币供应量对上中下游所有价格指数均能产生影响,对下游价格指数CPI的驱动效应最显著;上中游价格指数向下游价格指数逐级传导效应显著,但跨级传导效应呈递减趋势;同时下游价格指数的变动也会倒逼中上游价格指数变化,但跨级传导效应基本无趋势性。     

基于状态空间模型的汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的实证分析——基于央行资产负债表的视角

从分析人民银行资产负债表的变化出发,运用状态空间模型实证分析了2005年7月至2012年6月中国汇率和货币供给对通货膨胀影响的动态时变过程。研究结果表明:人民币汇率升值对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用,但其效果较弱;货币供给对通货膨胀有较大的正向推动作用,货币供给的持续增加是人民银行资产负债表中资产方的外汇占款科目不断增加导致负债方的基础货币持续增加的结果。     

电子货币影响短期利率的实证研究:基于狭义电子货币的视角

基于电子货币的狭义定义,本文从狭义电子货币影响货币供求的角度选择影响短期利率的解释变量并构建理论模型。在控制其他影响因素后,发现狭义电子货币对30天期Chibor利率的直接影响并不显著,而主要受传统货币电子化、移动网络等支付技术发展影响的变量,如货币供给流动性、金融电子化程度以及现金漏损率与30天期Chibor利率之间存在长期协整关系,货币供给流动性、金融电子化程度以及现金漏损率对30天期Chibor利率的影响方向均为正。     

Income and Quality of Life: Does the Love of Money Make a Difference?

This paper examines a model of income and quality of life that controls the love of money, job satisfaction, gender, and marital status and treats employment status (full-time versus part-time), income level, and gender as moderators. For the whole sample, income was not significantly related to quality of life when this path was examined alone. When all variables were controlled, income was negatively related to quality of life. When (1) the love of money was negatively correlated to job satisfaction and (2) job satisfaction was positively related to both income and quality of life, income was negatively related to quality of life for full-time, high-income, and male employees. When these two conditions failed to exist, income was not related to quality of life for part-time, median- or low-income, and female employees. This model provides new insights regarding the impact of the love of money and job satisfaction on the income–quality of life relationship. Thomas Li-Ping Tang (Ph.D., Case Western Reserve University) is a Full Professor of Management in the Department of Management and Marketing, Jennings A. Jones College of Business at Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU), Murfreesboro, Tennessee, 37132. He has taught Industrial and Organizational Psychology at National Taiwan University and at MTSU. Professor Tang teaches (has taught) EMBA courses in China and France. He serves (has served) on the editorial review board of six journals and as a reviewer for 26 journals around the world. Professor Tang’s research interests focus upon people’s work motivation, compensation, money attitudes, the Love of Money, pay satisfaction, turnover, stress, and cross-cultural issues. He has published more than 100 journal articles in top behavior sciences and management journals, including Journal of Applied Psychology, Personnel Psychology, Human Relations, Journal of Management, Management Research, Management and Organization Review, Journal of Organizational Behavior, Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Managerial Psychology, European Sport Management Quarterly, Journal of Higher Education, and others. He has presented more than 185 papers in professional conferences and invited seminars in Austria, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Greece, Hong Kong, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, Spain, Taiwan, the UK, the US, and other countries. His research has been cited in many languages, textbooks of several fields (e.g., Management Organizational Behavior, Human Resources Management, Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Human Relations, Compensation, and Statistics), and popular books. He was the winner of two Outstanding Research Awards (1991, 1999), and Distinguished International Service Award (1999) at Middle Tennessee State University. He also received the Best Reviewer Award from the International Management Division of the Academy of Management in Seattle, WA (2003).