Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model

The paper takes a recent agent-based asset pricing model by Manzan and Westerhoff from the literature and applies the method of simulated moments to estimate its six parameters. In selecting the moments, the focus is on the fat tails and autocorrelation patterns of the daily returns of several stock market indices and foreign exchange rates. It is argued that it may be meaningful to abandon the econometrically optimal weighting matrix in the objective function and instead invoke the moments' t-statistics in an intuitively appealing way. This modification gives rise to estimations whose moment matching, given the model's parsimony, can be largely considered to be satisfactory. Also the parameter estimates across different markets make good economic sense.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models

This study considers the effectiveness of different model specifications and estimation approaches for empirical accounting-based valuation models in the UK. Primarily, we are interested in the accounting determinants of market value and, in particular, whether accounting-based valuation models can be estimated that not only have in-sample explanatory power but also potentially can be used as a tool of financial statement analysis in developing useful estimates of value out-of-sample. This requires models to be estimated on one sample, and tested for effectiveness on a different sample. Then, issues of model specification arise, together with choosing between methods of estimating the empirical models, in identifying the effectiveness of each combination. Using the criteria of bias and accuracy to capture effectiveness, we suggest estimation methods and models that, overall, provide the most effective models in this context.     

A discrete and a continuous-time model based on a technical trading rule

In this article we propose a model in discrete and continuoustime that incorporates explicitly a technical trading rule inthe specification of the volatility. The proposed discrete-timemodel is an alternative to GARCH-type processes. We derive conditionsfor the covariance and strict stationarity of the discrete-timeprocess and we study the estimation and inference problems.We also analyze the conditions under which the discrete-timeprocess converges in distribution to a diffusion process. Toillustrate the proposed model and compare it with the GARCHspecification, we analyze the daily closing stock prices oftwo major U.S. companies (Microsoft and Oracle), two stock indices(DAX and NASDAQ) and two U.S. Dollar exchange rates (Euro andSterling)     

Hyperbolic Discounting and Consumer Patience: The Case of Korea

ABSTRACT

In this article, we test whether the consumption pattern in Korea exhibits a time-inconsistent discounting behavior compared to the conventional exponential discounting. We derive the quasi-hyperbolic Euler equation and estimate it using the generalized method of moments (GMM). The estimation results show that Korean consumers exhibit a time-inconsistent quasi-hyperbolic discounting behavior in general, but the pattern of inconsistency in consumption behavior, in particular the degree of impatience, depends on the estimation period, in particular whether it includes financial crisis periods in 1997–98 and 2008–11.     

Validity of the Statistical Estimation

Conventional statistical methods of the estimation of population parameters are abstract and unreliable because these statistical methods are based on unwarranted assumptions.     

Economic contribution of essential air service flights on small and remote communities

The Essential Air Service Program (EAS) has attracted considerable criticism and has been a target for either modification or complete termination almost since its inception through the Airline Deregulation Act in 1978. Although its opponents emphasize the program's inefficiency, its supporters claim that the program is crucial to accessing small and remote communities, which helps them develop economically and socially. This paper demonstrates the economic contributions of EAS flights to small and remote communities. Using a two-stage least squares estimation, the major findings indicate that a 1% increase in air passenger traffic in EAS airports with a minimum annual air passenger traffic of 1000 likely leads to a 0.12% increase in per capita income of the community served by that airport. Our results also suggest that EAS communities that are able to sustain their subsidized flights experienced higher per capita income growth in the 1999–2011 period than did ex-EAS communities that lost their flights as a result of non-eligibility.     

Public sector enterprise disinvestment in India: Efficiency gains in a political context

India instituted a program of state enterprise disinvestment in 1991 as part of a sweeping reform initiative. This study analyses the effect of disinvestment on enterprise performance, conditioned on political context as characterized by the ideological leanings of the parties in power at state and central levels. Using stochastic frontier analysis, measures of firm efficiency are generated for 238 central public sector enterprises for the period 1991–1992 to 2010–2011. The relationship between efficiency so measured and disinvestment is then estimated using a two-stage instrumental variables approach to control for endogeneity between firm efficiency and selection for disinvestment. Initial disinvestment is associated with substantial efficiency gains, but subsequent disinvestment much less so and the proportion of shares disinvested only loosely so. This may be explained by the transformative effect of initial stock market listing on accountability and profit orientation that is not repeated with further rounds of disinvestment. The effect of disinvestment on performance is stronger if the enterprise is located in a state governed by a right leaning party or one that is ideologically aligned with the party in power at the centre.     

Measuring firm performance: Differentiating between uncontrollable and controllable bad outputs

This paper introduces a new model that differentiates between controllable and uncontrollable bad outputs in the measurement of firm performance; the airline industry is used as the empirical example. The model allows us to measure technical inefficiency, as well as the inefficiency in the production of bad outputs, and the inefficiency in the investments allocated to the reduction of uncontrollable bad outputs. Moreover, we provide a direct measure of the total cost of controllable bad outputs. As the model involves a number of latent (unobservable) variables that cannot be easily integrated out of the likelihood function without producing complicated expressions, we resort to Bayesian techniques. We find notable differences in inefficiency across airlines. More importantly though, we find that the production of bad or undesirable outputs impose significant costs on airlines. However, these cost issues could be reduced if airlines invest more in maintenance and service training.     

The determinants of Turkey's exports to Islamic countries: The impact of political risks

Using the traditional gravity model, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of Turkish exports to 43 Islamic Development Bank member countries for the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper specifically investigates the effects of 12 political risk measures (bureaucracy quality, corruption, democratic accountability, government stability, internal and external conflict, investment profile, law and order, military in politics, religious and ethnic tensions, and socioeconomic conditions) in the importing countries on the total volume of exports of Turkey. After implementing various robustness checks, the paper finds that the government instability in the importing countries is negatively associated with the Turkish exports.     

鸟类目标微多普勒分析及参数估计

鸟类扑动的翅膀产生的微多普勒包含了目标的尺寸与微动特征信息,可用于鸟类目标参数估计,对探鸟雷达目标识别具有重要意义。首先建立鸟类目标雷达回波模型,推导了鸟翅膀散射点的微多普勒数学表达式,并通过计算回波的自相关函数估计目标扑翼频率;然后对微多普勒表达式进行泰勒级数展开,利用展开系数与扑翼幅度之间的关系得到扑翼幅度的估计值;最后根据半翼展与微多普勒谱宽之间的关系得到半翼展的估计值。仿真实验证明了所提方法的有效性和抗噪性：对扑翼幅度大于30??、半翼展大于0.3 m的目标,在信噪比高于0 dB的噪声环境下估计精度高。