The argument for more future-oriented planning

Planning, and practically all forms of decisionmaking, are concerned with the future. The future, unless we adopt deterministic philosophies, is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Through the processes of change it is likely to be different from the past; existing and past knowledge and experience are only a partial guide to decisionmaking. The inclusion of a future dimension based on careful thought about possible future development offers a new tool to the decisionmaker that should not be overlooked.     

区域旅游媒体营销初步研究

通过分析我国目前区域旅游媒体营销现状，提出其存在的问题：结合媒体营销的特点，提出了相应的对策。     

The Problem of Time Dependent Explanatory Variables at the Context-Level in Discrete Time Multilevel Event History Analysis: A Comparison of Models Considering Mobility Between Local Labour Markets as an Example

The paper deals with the question of how to include time dependent explanatory variables at the context-level in multilevel event history models. In general, context-level explanatory variables in multilevel models are assumed to be time constant. Only time constant context-level explanatory variables perform the task of reducing context-level error variance. Thus, it will be suggested that the analysis should be extended to a three-level model. In this model, time periods of persons constitute level 1 units, time periods of contexts constitute level 2 units and the contexts themselves constitute level 3 units – in which in turn level 2 units are clustered. Considering mobility between local labour markets as an example, four different ways of modelling time varying context-level variables are compared. The result is that the proposed three-level model leads to the most conservative results.     

The sociologist as social architect: A new task for macro-sociology?

The theme of voluntarism and determinism is revisited, here in the context of forecasting for futurists. Although fraught with danger the use of scenarios is vital in a world of rapid change, in which people are more than ever aware of the choices open to them and the ways they are able to determine their own future. The author proposes that a merger between the approaches of the sociologist and the futurist could aid our understanding of social futures. The outcome is a ‘design sociology’ based on six key concepts.     

Work and nonwork : Europe in the 1980s and beyond

Through an understanding of major trends in employment, unemployment and informal work and in patterns of life, possible alternative futures in work and nonwork may be identified. Communications and information technologies (IT) may themselves transform the recent transformations in work and nonwork, and already disadvantaged groups may further suffer unless fully involved in the policy processes relating to IT and its products.     

Prediction of the next hypercalcemia free period: application of random effect models with selection on first event

The length of repeated hypercalcemia free periods of patients with bone metastasis of breast cancer with at least one hypercalcemic event was modelled according to a generalized linear mixed model formulated in terms of transition probabilities and according to a latent variable model. In the former case the periods were assumed to be lognormally distributed with two variance components (patients and residue). In the latter case the conditional intensity given a patient was assumed to be the intensity of the Weibull distribution, while the random patient effect (frailty) was assumed to be drawn from a gamma distribution. In both cases the selection of only patients with at least one hypercalcemic event was taken into consideration. In both models the variance of the patient effect turned out to be negligible. For the second and later periods the Weibull appeared to fit better than the lognormal model. For the first period there was almost no information available.     

美国次贷危机国内外理论研究和实证研究文献综述

次贷危机发生后,国内外许多学者对此进行了反思,当前这类文献很多,对此进行梳理、分类和总结,具有重要的现实意义和理论意义。目前,国内只有少量关于美国次贷危机成因综述的文章。为此,本文搜集了国内外大量文献,从理论研究和实证研究角度,对美国次贷危机研究文献进行综合分析,为研究金融危机的学者提供参考和借鉴。     

农产品加工业发展模式研究

本文分析了发达国家和国内典型地区农产品加工业发展模式,提出适合于中国农产品加工业发展的借鉴模式,如品牌发展模式、质量支撑模式、技术创新模式、规模牵引模式和服务配套模式等。     

The informational relevance of corporate social responsibility: evidence from DS400 index reconstitutions

This study examines the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance by analyzing the intra‐industry wealth impact of additions and deletions to the Domini Social 400 index. Results from the event study analysis indicate that additions to the index generate a positive share price response for the announcement firm and a negative response by rival firms. The opposite reaction is observed for index deletions. Additionally, the share price response is more pronounced for informationally opaque industries. Our study highlights the importance of external monitoring agencies in providing meaningful information that helps resolve investor uncertainty regarding the quality of a firm's relationships with its primary stakeholders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

超越价值增值的公共信息增值服务研究

公共信息的价值增值服务和增值服务都是公共信息开发利用的重要手段,价值增值是增值服务的基础,而增值服务是实现公共信息个性化和深层次服务的重要方式。文章从价值增值服务和增值服务的区别谈起,探讨了目前实现增值服务的障碍因素和解决途径。