基于KMV模型的适用性研究与应用分析——以A股市场主要过剩产能行业为例

本文通过对2007年—2012年钢铁行业和水泥建材行业共45家上市公司的财务数据和股票历史信息的分析,基于KMV模型原理,通过使用Matlab、Excel等软件,实证分析了近几年来上述企业的违约距离,并探讨产能过剩和信用违约之间的关系。实证结果表明,KMV模型适用于钢铁行业和水泥建材行业的信用违约测度,结果符合经济运行形势;同时,上述行业产能过剩并不能直接解释以违约距离表征的公司信用违约风险。     

探析高校基建工程超投资的原因及对策

在高校基本建设的过程中,工程投资预算是保证高校财务科学化管理的重要途径。由于国家财政计划在教育的投入政策规定,大部分的高校需要通过银行贷款获得工程建设的资金。这种情况下尤其需要工程投资的规范化、科学化管理,对工程投资进行严格的控制,将国家投入的资金、通过银行获取的贷款等切实用于高校教育事业的发展,提高工程投资的效益。本文在分析高校基建工程超投资原因的基础上,提出了高校基建工程投资控制的措施。     

超额商誉是否影响审计意见？

近年来,商誉对经营业绩与企业价值的负面影响引起广泛关注,但审计视角下的研究相对较少。以2010—2019年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验了超额商誉对审计意见的影响,研究发现：（1）超额商誉会显著提高审计师出具非标准审计意见的概率;（2）中介效应检验显示,经营风险与审计投入是作用路径;（3）异质性检验表明,在民营企业、内部控制质量低、制度环境好、分析师关注度高等样本中,超额商誉对非标准审计意见的正向影响更为显著。     

Precautionary Reserves and the Interbank Market

Extreme disruptions in the interbank market severely hampered the broader financial system during the 2007–08 financial crisis. We use Fedwire data to estimate fed funds trades and track banks’ intraday balances. We show empirical evidence of banks’ precautionary holding of reserves and reluctance to lend linked to documented extreme fed funds rate volatility, including the fed funds rate spiking above the discount rate and crashing to zero. We develop a model of constrained banks that makes new predictions and provides a unified explanation for the stark anomalies during the crisis, our empirical findings, and previous stylized facts from normal times.     

制度环境抑制了企业过度负债同伴效应吗? ——基于信息不对称中介效应的分析

基于2006-2018年30个国家的上市公司为样本,考察制度环境对企业过度负债同伴效应的影响.研究发现:法律环境、政府效率等制度环境可以显著降低企业过度负债同伴效应;制度环境对企业过度负债同伴效应的影响存在异质性,当企业规模较小、过度负债程度较高、所在国家制度环境较好时,制度环境可以显著降低企业过度负债同伴效应.反之,上述影响则不显著;企业所在行业竞争程度较高时,制度环境可以更显著地降低企业过度负债同伴效应.     

我国银行体系流动性过剩问题研究述评

本文对我国银行体系流动性过剩问题的研究成果进行了回顾,梳理归纳了学界关于流动性定义、流动性过剩的表现、影响及其对策的不同观点。文章认为我国银行体系流动性就是指商业银行的超额准备金,并对流动性过剩的根源、形成机制、结构性特征、影响、国际背景及其治理问题进行了深入分析,试图廓清国内学者的不同认识。     

The Heterogeneous Responses of Consumption between Poor and Rich to Government Spending Shocks

Government spending shocks have substantially different effects on consumers across the income distribution: consumption increases for the poor whereas it decreases for the rich in response to a rise in government expenditure. I shed light on this issue by incorporating a progressive tax scheme and productive public expenditure into a heterogeneous agent model economy with indivisible labor. The model economy is able to successfully match aggregate and disaggregate effects of government spending shocks on consumption. When the government increases its spending and accompanies it by a rise in tax progressivity, the poor are employed and increase their consumption since after‐tax wage rates increase while the rich decrease their consumption because of a fall in after‐tax wage rates.     

A Model of QE,Reserve Demand,and the Money Multiplier

Quantitative easing (QE) programs have driven unprecedented expansions in the supply of central bank reserves around the world over the past two decades, fundamentally changing the implementation of monetary policy. The collapse in money multipliers following QE episodes has often been interpreted as implying banks are happy to passively hold most of the reserves created by QE. This paper develops a simple microsimulation model of the banking sector that adapts the traditional money multiplier model and allows for bank reserve demand to be inferred from monetary aggregates. The model allows the use of unwanted reserves by banks to play out over time alongside QE purchases and incorporates both significantly higher reserve demand after 2008 and capital constraints. With these additions, the model explains the persistently lower money multipliers seen in the United States following QE, as well as the growth in commercial bank deposits. The model suggests the demand from banks for reserves has increased substantially since the introduction of QE but not to the point where banks are passively absorbing all newly created reserves.     

超额商誉与商业信用融资

利用我国2007-2020年A股上市公司作为研究样本,从供应商和客户的角度出发考察超额商誉对商业信用融资的影响,研究发现超额商誉会抑制企业的商业信用融资.中介机制检验发现超额商誉会使企业经营风险上升、会计稳健性下降,导致供应商和客户提供商业信用的意愿降低.拓展性分析还发现当企业处于市场竞争比较激烈的行业、市场化水平比较低的地区时,超额商誉对商业信用融资的负面影响更加显著.研究表明供应商和客户会将超额商誉视为企业高风险的信号,拓展了超额商誉负面经济后果的相关文献,对于监管部门和企业制定相关决策也具有一定的参考价值.