Implementing market segmentation using full-refund and no-refund customer returns policies in a dual-channel supply chain structure

Products returned by customers are common in the retail industry and result in costs to both the supplier and the retailer. In practice, retailers implement returns policies that may give customers a full, partial, or no refund for returned products. In this paper, we examine how a firm that faces customer returns can enhance profit by using different customer returns policies, full-refund and no-returns, as a device to segment its market into a dual-channel structure. We also show the impact of customer returns on the firm's pricing and ordering decisions, as well as on the firm's profit in such a dual-channel structure.     

Excess Liquidity,Housing Price Booms and Policy Challenges in China

Incorporating asymmetric cost and benefit of supplying excess liquidity into an otherwise standard time inconsistency model, this paper offers an explanation of the excess liquidity and housing price booms recently experienced in China. We find that the central bank's incentive to stimulate economic growth with excess liquidity fuels real estate prices and accelerates inflation bias. Therefore, the central bank should free itself from the pressure to achieve an economic growth rate higher than the potential level, and assign an appropriate weight to the real estate price fluctuations in the central bank's objective function, so that the central bank's policy of stimulating economic growth with excess liquidity can be constrained.     

Expectation-driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two-country models

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation-driven fluctuations of large-country economies in a free-trade equilibrium. We consider a two-country, two-good, two-factor general equilibrium model with sector-specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation-driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.     

Statistical properties of returns: Financial assets versus commercial real estate

This study examines the distribution of commercial real estate returns by region (east, midwest, south, and west), by property type (office, retail, R&D office, and warehouse) and in the aggregate, and compares their distributions to those of financial assets. Nominal and real returns are examined for quarterly, semiannual, and annual periods. The quarterly nominal returns on the financial assets are mostly normal with very little indication of autocorrelation. In contrast, non-normality and autocorrelation are present in most of the nominal quarterly real estate series. The non-normality is greatly reduced when semiannual or annual returns are considered or when the quarterly series are corrected for autocorrelation. The non-normality is also lower for real returns than it is for nominal returns.     

Noise trading and prime and score premiums

This paper documents that a common element drives the time-series variation of the premium pricing of Primes and Scores. I argue that this common element is noise trading. The noise trading model of Delong, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) predicts that returns on assets that are predominantly traded by noise traders will be correlated, since the misperceptions of noise traders are cross-sectionally correlated. Consistent with the noise trading hypothesis, changes in the average premium of Primes and Scores, which are predominantly traded by individual investors, are correlated with both changes in average discounts of closed-end funds and small firms returns. These empirical facts provide additional evidence that noise traders can affect security prices.     

On the Asymmetric Recognition of Good and Bad News in France, Germany and the United Kingdom

We investigate whether accounting systems recognise bad news more promptly in earnings than good news, where news is proxied by changes in share price. The analysis is based on a sample of firm/years drawn from France, Germany, and the UK during 1990 to 1998. These three countries are the originators of three distinct legal traditions. Previous studies have argued that asymmetric recognition, one manifestation of conservative accounting, is sensitive to legal background and history. We find that in all three countries the contemporaneous association between earnings and returns is much stronger for bad news (i.e. when price changes are negative) than for good news, and although the results are strongest for the UK, and then France, the inter-country differences are not statistically significant. The stronger reaction to bad news is more pronounced for firms with relatively low capitalisation. We also find that the relative persistence of profits and losses are consistent with asymmetric recognition in France and the UK, but not in Germany, and that the more timely recognition of bad news is maintained even when we control for earnings persistence. When we extend the model to include price changes from previous periods, we see that the stronger reaction to bad news decays over time. The results from this model also suggest that 'pervasive' conservatism, unrelated to news, is observed in Germany and France, but the UK results are consistent with optimism. Although asymmetric recognition is generally strongest in the UK and weakest in Germany, and this broadly conforms to our expectations, the differences are less clear than the results from earlier periods.     

改善粘扣现象提高石油套管现场使用质量

通过对套管在13种不同条件下进行的上、卸扣试验分析。阐述了螺纹脂、过扭矩、接箍受外力变形和上扣时错扣等因素对上、卸扣试验结果的影响。指出。螺纹脂涂抹以及螺纹脂质量对套管的上、卸扣、密封性能、及粘结倾向影响很大，而上扣扭矩过大、接箍变形、错扣等情况将会造成严重粘扣现象。     

Managerial discretion in distressed firms

This study examines the earnings management behaviour of 455 distressed US firms that filed for bankruptcy during the period 1986–2001. We examine (a) possible earnings management during the years prior to bankruptcy-filing, (b) whether qualified audit opinions cause conservative earnings management behaviour, (c) whether earnings management differs between firms that discontinued operations and firms that survived thereafter, and (d) the effect of earnings management on subsequent stock returns. Our results are consistent with downwards earnings management 1 year prior to the bankruptcy-filing. Results also show that (a) firms receiving unqualified audit opinions 4 or 5 years prior to the bankruptcy-filing event manage earnings upwards in subsequent years, consistent with Rosner [2003. Earnings manipulation in failing firms. Contemporary Accounting Research 20, 361–408], (b) more conservative earnings management seems to be related to the qualified audit opinions rendered in the preceding year, (c) firms with long-term negative accruals the year of bankruptcy-filing have a greater chance to survive thereafter, and (d) more pronounced (negative) earnings management is associated with more negative (next year's) subsequent returns.     

商业银行流动性过剩与区域金融资源配置失衡

本文从区域金融学的角度对我国商业银行流动性变化及其区域差异进行了剖析.研究发现,东部沿海发达地区信贷资金投放量过度,城乡金融资源配置差别太大,区域金融资源配置的失衡导致了全国城市商业银行流动性过剩.文章认为,疏通、引导社会资金流向,改善、优化欠发达地区的金融生态,防范、控制发达地区的金融风险,分步实施我国地区均衡开发战略,这是解决当前全国流动性过剩的根本路径.     

A Performance Comparison Between Cross-Sectional Stochastic Dominance and Traditional Event Study Methodologies

In this study, the performance of cross-sectional stochastic dominance (SD), first proposed by Falk and Levy (FL) (1989), is compared with three traditional event study methodologies: the Mean Adjusted model, the Market Adjusted model, and the Market and Risk Adjusted Returns model. The comparison technique we use is a simulations approach similar to that of Brown and Warner (BW) (1980). BW show that the Mean Adjusted and Market Adjusted Returns models perform as well as the more sophisticated Market and Risk Adjusted Returns model. FL, however, provide a very compelling argument against the three traditional event study methodologies. The problem, they note, is not the theoretical need for risk adjustment; it is the definition and measurement of risk. FL assert that the observed abnormal returns (or lack thereof) may be due to omitted variables, a market proxy effect, or other specification errors in implementing the traditional event study methodologies.The present research finds that SD analysis without the bootstrap method for statistical testing is not very useful at any level of abnormal return. However, when the bootstrap method of statistical testing is employed, SD is found to perform as well as, and sometimes better than, the three traditional models in detecting simulated abnormal performance at all test levels. The results are consistent with FL\'s assertion that the improved performance may result from the SD methodology being free from the specification errors inherent in the three traditional event study models.