Persistence of Output Fluctuations Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

In a recent paper, Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence that suggests that the time required by output to return to trend following a financial shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper, we use vector autoregression models to measure the persistence properties of output for a number of countries in the Asia–Pacific region. Our results suggest that output persistence is not uniquely related to a country's choice of exchange rate regime. The two countries in our sample with the least persistent output following a financial shock are Australia, where the exchange rate is fully flexible, and Hong Kong, where it is rigidly fixed via a currency board.     

资本管制、结售制度与资源配置效率:透视中国外汇储备

近年来我国外汇储备的超常规增长对经济发展产生重要影响。对外汇储备形成机理进行研究发现,我国巨额外汇储备是由多种因素交互作用的结果,不完全的市场机制很大程度促进了我国外汇储备的增长。应放松资本管制,逐步施行资本账户开放和人民币自由兑换;改变现有的外汇结售制度,建立主权财富基金;推进汇率制度改革,形成利率-汇率联合机制;发展金融衍生产品市场等。     

出口退税、汇率调整与出口企业的最优销量——基于相互市场古诺模型的分析

文章利用冰山假说把国内税率、出口退税率以及汇率政策因素纳入存在多个国内与外国企业的相互市场古诺模型,分析了以国内税、出口退税与汇率为核心的策略性贸易政策对出口企业利润最大化的最优出口销量与国内销售的影响,并且以这种比较静态分析为基础,对各种单一政策与多项政策组合的调整效力进行排序。这些分析得出如下的结论:就单一政策的调整效力而言,出口退税优于国内税收与汇率政策;就政策组合的调整效力而言,出口退税与国内税组合优于国内税与汇率的组合。     

The impact of FIFA’s official announcements on the stock market of Qatar: The case of the 2022 World Cup

This study examines the impact of the FIFA’s official announcements on Doha Stock Exchange (DSE) of Qatar with respect to the 2022 World Cup. Using the abnormal unsystematic volatility method of Hilliard and Savickas (2002), our empirical findings reveal that the DSE market is sensitive to FIFA’s announcements about the 2022 World Cup. We find that four out of six FIFA announcements act as primary drivers to the DSE market volatility. The significant reactions of the DSE market to these announcements unveil the investors’ sentiments about the fate of the governmental and private expenditures on medium- and long-term projects undertaken in anticipation of hosting the 2022 World Cup. The results have some implications to investors in this newly emerging market related to this global sporting event. Any future announcements, good or bad, are likely to impact share prices in DSE market and trigger portfolio reallocation by local and international investors, leading to increased volatility.     

Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela

PurposeWe test the informational efficiency of Venezuelan USD sovereign bond yields when the black market exchange-rate premium (BMERP) changes.DesignWe use a non-parametric, asymmetric, Granger causality test to test our hypothesis.FindingsWe find that the bond market with less than or equal to 5 years of maturity seems to be efficient when good news is released on the BMERP. However, this market is not informationally efficient, and when combined with unbiased bad news regarding the BMERP, arbitrage opportunities are created.Originality/valueCapital controls that restrict free exchange-rate mechanisms create arbitrage opportunities with negative news as opposed to positive news.     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma

Macroeconomic policy choices in open economies are constrained by the trilemma according to which the objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary independence and capital mobility cannot be attained jointly. This paper shows that foreign exchange interventions provide an effective instrument to relax the trilemma. An active reserve policy allows central banks to pursue independent monetary and exchange rate policies when the capital account is liberalised.We use the framework of the portfolio balance model to show that exchange market interventions may substitute for capital controls. Both allow a country to achieve the other two objectives of the trilemma. Our empirical analysis of a large country panel data set covering the period 1970–2010 confirms this theoretical insight: the weighted sum of the three trilemma objectives increases in the degree of foreign exchange market intervention. The capacity to relax the trilemma constraint has increased over time and has been most effective in emerging markets.     

The Effects of Productivity Shocks,Financial Shocks,and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises

What kind of shock affects exchange rate dynamics? How much of an effect does the monetary policy have on exchange rates? To answer these questions empirically based on the currency crisis model, I use panel data on 51 emerging countries from 1980 to 2011, identify shocks, and apply instrumental variable methods. I found that both productivity shocks and shocks to a country’s risk premium affect exchange rates and a 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency. I further apply this method to Asian and Latin-American crises.     

Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate Nexus in African Markets

This paper examines the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in six African markets using monthly data for the period January 2007 to October 2015. A quantile regression approach is used. This methodology is shown to perform better than the ordinary least squares estimators, particularly when the conditional distribution is heterogeneous. Our empirical evidence reveals an interesting pattern in the association of these two financial markets in Africa, which shows that the negative relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is more apparent when exchange rates are extremely low or high. The negative relationship between the two variables is in line with the portfolio balance effect.