On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

民营企业员工敬业度影响因素研究

当前,在国内企业中普遍存在员工敬业度低的现象。中国民营企业在现阶段的人力资源开发和人才培养体系创建上缺乏有效的机制。同时,员工敬业度和忠诚度对企业发展有着重要意义。民营企业作为国民经济和社会发展的主力军,为了适应市场中激烈的竞争,只有吸引、留住和用好人才,建立行之有效的人力资源管理体系,才是民营企业发展、生存的关键。论文综合了部分国内外的文献资料,阐述了员工敬业度的概念,指出了影响员工敬业度的因素,提出了解决民营企业员工敬业度问题的方法。     

浅析影响食品饮料中糖分检测的因素

糖类是食品饮料中的重要组成部分。糖类物质是食品工业的主要原料和辅助材料。食品饮料中的糖分的高低不仅影响产品的口感、风味,而且会影响到产品的保质期。因此,食品生产企业必须严格控制食品饮料中的糖分的高低并且能够有效地检测出它的含量。本文从食品饮料中糖分的检测方法出发,主要论述了食品饮料中微量糖分检测的技术要领及其检验中的关键步骤,以实用性强,检测结果准确可靠为宗旨。特别是对于加工低糖、无糖食品及干型、半干型葡萄酒、黄酒、果酒的企业来说,提供一种检测技术以指导企业的生产。     

基于ISM模型的建筑企业隐性知识转移影响因素分析

知识经济时代,隐性知识成为建筑企业核心竞争力和持续发展优势的源泉。本文首先结合SECI模型对建筑企业的隐性知识及其转移特性进行了综合分析,然后运用解释结构模型方法(ISM)对其主要影响因素进行研究,得到隐性知识转移影响因素结构层次关系,最后对关键影响因素提出有针对性的措施建议。该研究将有助于建筑企业更有效地实现隐性知识转移,提高建筑企业的竞争力。     

基于ISM的精敏供应链实施的影响因素分析

针对精敏供应链实施效果不明显的现象,文章找出了影响其实施的因素,建立精敏供应链实施影响因素关系的ISM模型,并运用ISM模型对各影响因素进行分层解释,分析各影响因素之间的内在关系,为企业降低成本,提高经济绩效和客户满意度,以及更好的实施精敏供应链提供指导。     

企业财务状况的模糊综合评价

本文首先探讨了模糊财务评价的理论依据,然后运用模糊财务评价的数学模型,提出一种对企业财务状况进行综合评价的方法,并用实例进行分析。     

重庆市金融要素市场培育的政府行为边界分析

随着重庆建设我国金融中心步伐的日益加快,本文针对如何界定重庆政府在建设金融中心的金融要素市场培育的三种理论为出发点,根据制度经济学"政府在制度变迁中提供的基本服务是博弈的基本规则"的原理,运用道格拉斯·诺斯制度变迁和经济增长的理论模型,提出重庆政府行为边界的具体构建框架,即完善稳定金融要素体系,提供配套基础设施及环境支持;为健全金融要素市场提供政策保障;随着金融要素市场不断形成出台并规范相关法律法规,明确规定政府行为边界,为重庆金融要素市场的培育提供有力的支持和保护。     

构建社会主义和谐社会的不和谐因素分析

我国已进入“黄金发展期”与“矛盾凸显期”并存的时期,构建和谐社会成为时代发展的迫切要求。和谐是针对不和谐,解决消除不和谐而达成的状态。我国经济社会系统中的不和谐、不协调因素主要表现在：经济增长与社会发展不平衡；收入分配不公：三农问题突出；贫困问题严重：就业压力不堪重负；教育发展不平衡；腐败蔓延：群体性事件泛滥；资源滥用,生态恶化：医疗与公共卫生问题突出：城市化后遗症,城乡关系紧张。     

The effect of cash holdings on firm performance in large Italian companies

This paper examines the relationship between cash holdings and performance in Italy over 36 years. Specifically, in light of the presence of conflicting evidence concerning the worth of cash stock, which could lead to a positive effect rather than a negative one, the role of moderating factors that can shape the magnitude of this relationship is investigated. The results show that the value of cash holdings is affected by firm‐specific characteristics, as well as factors related to the institutional context. Although other studies have analyzed moderators one at a time, this is the first work to consider how they jointly work. When the moderators are considered together, some of them become no longer statistically significant while others become even more economically and statistically relevant.     

Personality in context: effective traits for expatriate managers at different levels

The purpose of this article is to assess how management level as a contextual factor interacts with personal characteristics in predicting expatriate performance. In particular, we focused on proactive personality (the individual’s disposition to change the organizational environment) and self-control (the individual’s disposition to change oneself to fit the organizational environment). Surveying 307 business expatriate managers in China, we hypothesized that in relation to work outcomes, the effect of proactive personality would be stronger for CEOs while the effect of self-control would be stronger for non-CEOs. We found both proactive personality and self-control to have favorable effects on our performance indicators: job performance, effectiveness, and time to proficiency. In line with our prediction, we also found the effect of proactive personality on job performance to be stronger for CEO expatriates while the effect of self-control on performance was stronger for non-CEO expatriate managers.